Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Down to 36 hrs of real torch? snowpack survival? weeks of torch talk for a total meh thaw

 

 

how are your departures for the last 5-7 days in CT?

[danstorm]

2/5/01

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

This pattern is a disaster. Mild and boring, then two day torchfest. Big waste in the heart of winter. Hopefully, we'll change that next week.

 

For those that coddle their snowpacks like a new puppy this hasn't been as bad as it could be though Coastalwx.

 

Cloudy and 40 isn't much of a way to melt.

[Damage In Tolland]

I will take that bet, post pics Monday AM

Did you see my pics earlier? That's a deep winter look. I'm afraid Monday morning it's a deep spring look. Luckily more coming Tuesday

[CoastalWx]

For those that coddle their snowpacks like a new puppy this hasn't been as bad as it could be though Coastalwx.

 

Cloudy and 40 isn't much of a way to melt.

 

You know it's bad when you look at it that way.

[Ginx snewx]

how are your departures for the last 5-7 days in CT?

 

Knew this was coming,  +8 or so, but read back and tell me some folks were not posting like it would be hell on Earth torchathon. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

OP GFS finally leaving the day after tomorrow death vortex in Canada.  (along with the historic cold it had)

[Ginx snewx]

Did you see my pics earlier? That's a deep winter look. I'm afraid Monday morning it's a deep spring look. Luckily more coming Tuesday

 

Yes, what was your low this morning/ I hit 23 , solid ice cement pack

[CoastalWx]

OP GFS finally leaving the day after tomorrow death vortex in Canada.  (along with the historic cold it had)

 

It's coming.

[Ginx snewx]

You know it's bad when you look at it that way.

 

Not when you have snow otg, that is exactly how you approach it, coddle the pack

[Damage In Tolland]

Yes, what was your low this morning/ I hit 23 , solid ice cement pack

27.1

[CoastalWx]

Not when you have snow otg, that is exactly how you approach it, coddle the pack

 

Eh, slow bleeding.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not when you have snow otg, that is exactly how you approach it, coddle the pack

 

I'm coddling my brown turf.

[Ginx snewx]

Eh, slow bleeding.

 

eh extended sledding days

[ORH_wxman]

I enjoy deep snow pack...so if we were going to have a torch, this was a good way for me to tolerate it. There's been relatively little damage to the snow pack during this stretch. So at least it looks like mid winter out there...for me that is worth something, though I know others do not care for snow pack...all personal opinion.

 

Sunday will be rough though.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Knew this was coming,  +8 or so, but read back and tell me some folks were not posting like it would be hell on Earth torchathon. 

 

+8 is astounding when it's been day after day.  If someone told you next winter was a lock for -8 departures we'd all be pretty much talking about the next ice age.

 

Part of the problem with this site is all the extremes.  Your reaction to what most everyone here felt would be a mild up is a perfect example.  All it takes is a couple of people running around unabated on the extremes to make it seem like the majority feel one way or another.  

 

This is about exactly what I expected.  Go back a couple of days of GFS/other runs.  None of them showed the real warm air getting in here even over the weekend (10c 2m line had the distinctive hangup to our south which to me indicates we will struggle to torch winter 2012 style at the surface this weekend).  JMHO.

 

The extreme weather forecast by the models is almost always getting muted as it approaches.  The OP GFS run this morning is yet another example. 

 

This past week has been a torch but it's totally different than last year because it's coming mainly on the lows.  I wouldn't call 45-47 a torch in daytime terms, it's just above normal.  JMHO

[CoastalWx]

eh extended sledding days

 

Bad pattern.

[mahk_webstah]

Testicule

 

would the orientation of that scrotum allow storms to pull north on the east side of the circulation?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's coming.

 

140+ hours....6+ days.  Every 2 days of model runs push it back another day.

 

We will see what form it takes when it gets here, I still have your caution flags close.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Freezing Rain Advisories hoisted for ORH hills up to SNH and over into W MA and S VT.

[danstorm]

Knew this was coming,  +8 or so, but read back and tell me some folks were not posting like it would be hell on Earth torchathon. 

 

Meh, Sat. is a +15 day, Sun nearing +20...

 

Cloud cover will limit warming on Sunday for you guys... but for NYC and SW where we hit 60 and beyond, this is a pretty hellacious torch.

[CoastalWx]

140+ hours....6+ days.  Every 2 days of model runs push it back another day.

 

We will see what form it takes when it gets here, I still have your caution flags close.

 

It still looks on track for a cold shot, and then maybe clipper or moderation before another shot. It's a catch 22, you don't want the PV over you, but you also want the cold for precip.

[Allenson]

The only question I have, December was a torch +3-+6 around the northeast, and the last 8 days in a row above normal, can we call this a thaw if it never got cold outside a two day stretch?

 

This weekend looks to be somewhat of a thaw for here.  The lakes & rivers are frozen (people out on them too) and the ground is frozen under ~12" of snowpack.

 

We won't lose our base, though it will certainly be reduced.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It still looks on track for a cold shot, and then maybe clipper or moderation before another shot. It's a catch 22, you don't want the PV over you, but you also want the cold for precip.

 

I know it just feels like we're back in the rut of it being 7 days away....but then again most of us were talking about the 18th all along anyway. 

 

I don't love that initial pattern as you said, big PV too close, storm squasher.  Hopefully it can rotate around and NW in time.

[Damage In Tolland]

Weenies GON ween

[CoastalWx]

I know it just feels like we're back in the rut of it being 7 days away....but then again most of us were talking about the 18th all along anyway. 

 

I don't love that initial pattern as you said, big PV too close, storm squasher.  Hopefully it can rotate around and NW in time.

 

Just give it until Sunday to see how things look. Only weenies though this weekend would be chilly. I thought the 15th, would start it regardless.

[Brian5671]

One heck of a boring stretch. I'm actually excited to see a rain shower tonight, it's that bad.

[CoastalWx]

I feel cautiously optimistic going forward....I think even Will said that. Probably the best way to word it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Just give it until Sunday to see how things look. Only weenies though this weekend would be chilly. I thought the 15th, would start it regardless.

 

Agreed...the only problem I have with this pattern long term is the apparent potential lack of depth to the cold...IE north south penetration.  I realize that can be good too, but I don't love the fact that the cold shots take SE direct aim at us squashing storm potential, we get clippers and then still have the west to east look to things.  saki caution flag.  I'm not sold on the Euro ens pickup on this pattern yet.

[Brian5671]

The way it was portrayed by some, all of NE would be bare of snow , not the total disaster some had portrayed.

um, talk to me Monday morning-most locales won't go below freezing for 3 nights...