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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

If your expectations were reasonable the pattern ahead is fine.

 

We've finally got some really cold air coming down in between brief warmups.  The days and days of positive departures are gone for the foreseeable future.  We will not lock into a 10 or 15 day stretch of brutal cold weather, it'll be punctuated by brief warmups associated with systems that run along as clipper types...(QVectorman pointed out these again yesterday - nice work) and then brutal dry cold.  The one this weekend and the one after the 25th have been on the models for days, should be no surprise.  Hoping the 27th can duck south, but we'll see.  By the end of the month the pattern is either set to reload or crap out with the 0c line wandering around SNJ/VA for a day or two and the pattern flattening out. Hopefully QVector can chime in with his thoughts.

 

When it's warming the systems want to run over or north of us making a mess, when it's colder they form offshore maybe scraping SE areas.   We can hope that one of these events times out right and either redevelops SE, or we get a briefly more favorable period and a coastal goes to town in time.

 

That's my take.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

If your expectations were reasonable the pattern ahead is fine.

 

We've finally got some really cold air coming down in between brief warmups.  The days and days of positive departures are gone for the foreseeable future.  We will not lock into a 10 or 15 day stretch of brutal cold weather, it'll be punctuated by brief warmups associated with systems that run along as clipper types...(QVectorman pointed out these again yesterday - nice work) and then brutal dry cold.  The one this weekend and the one after the 25th have been on the models for days, should be no surprise.  Hoping the 27th can duck south, but we'll see.  By the end of the month the pattern is either set to reload or crap out with the 0c line wandering around SNJ/VA for a day or two and the pattern flattening out. Hopefully QVector can chime in with his thoughts.

 

When it's warming the systems want to run over or north of us making a mess, when it's colder they form offshore maybe scraping SE areas.   We can hope that one of these events times out right and either redevelops SE, or we get a briefly more favorable period and a coastal goes to town in time.

 

That's my take.

I think we either need some blocking to slow stuff down or the pv to orient itself in such away that it doesn't supress the storms...i.e. 94

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Admit it, you're scared Tuesday bombs with you in London.

The only thing to fear is fear itself.  And I fear that I fear that fearfully in my most fearful momemts.  It might snow in London Saturday night lol.  I don't think Tuesday bombs but I'd be happy if it did because I'd come home to deep snow in my yard.  I have been thinking and continue to think the 25th-28th for a biggie.

 

In any event I'll stick with the Queen....and keep calm and carry on.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

B+ for me so far with 35 inches of snow and a snowy Nov and late Dec. only thing not making it an A was the first 3 weeks of Dec blew and losing snowcover on Monday

 

B- here for the first half.  A litle meh with only  31" of snow; Nov events were purely for the southern climes, and the cold has been underwhelming (granted, about to change).

 

Hopefully cold and totals will hammer away over the next 10 weeks.

 

Wind makes it feel much colder than the balmy 34.6/24.  Hopefully the colder air will get in here soon.

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure nobody in Ct averages 80" of snow.  :santa:

 

Colebrook likely does.  Pretty drive if you head out route 57 to Sandisfield and take 8 south from there.  Actually probably better to do it the other way around and head down to CT and enjoy scenery as you head up from there thorugh Sandisfield and just stay on 8 as you work your way back to GC.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I think I like the idea of a "SWFE" as y'all call it with the 1/25 system (heck maybe I'll see something too). The MJO concerns from last week seem to be playing out with a very volatile jet configuration. But, through all of that, cold air will be available to our north which increases the potential for front-end snowfall.

 

I also said over the philly forum that the next PNA spike will happen in early Feb for a few reasons (read back through the medium range thread). Early Feb still looks to be a snowy time of it at this point. There are two parts to a MJO forecast and the convergence/lack of convection wave is just as important. It is currently in the W-C IO and will progress through Indonesia/W. Pac late Jan-early Feb.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

 
We should have several chances for more in the next 2 weeks.

 

Don't we pretty much always have chances aside of last winter?

 

1/22 is a chance, 1/27 is going to be a hit of some type of another...but is a few inches before a mess really any different than what's been going on all winter?  I think that's what people are driving at Will, JMHO.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Don't we pretty much always have chances aside of last winter?

 

1/22 is a chance, 1/27 is going to be a hit of some type of another...but is a few inches before a mess really any different than what's been going on all winter?  I think that's what people are driving at Will, JMHO.

 

 

No, sometimes you know when you wont have any chances or very low prob of chances like we thougth after the 12/29 event through about 1/10...aside from that, I'm not sure what else you want, for me to predict a blizzard 6 days out? That's foolish and irresponsible.

 

I'm not sure what people are complaining about other than weather that has already occurred.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

No, sometimes you know when you wont have any chances or very low prob of chances like we thougth after the 12/29 event through about 1/10...aside from that, I'm not sure what else you want, for me to predict a blizzard 6 days out? That's foolish and irresponsible.

 

I'm not sure what people are complaining about other than weather that has already occurred.

 

If you hadn't gotten snow yesterday or not as much as you wanted you'd be going on 3 weeks without snow in the heart of winter, perhaps pushing 4 before it's all said and done (Boston, the CP, Vermont etc).  That's why people are wound tight, not hard to understand.    We've been talking about the coming pattern since December, it's here now this weekend and what we're getting insofar as what is modeled is not the outcome many were hoping for which is snow on the maps and on the ground.  So 1 event around the 29th last month, 1 around the 16th this month and as modeled now everything else is another 8-10 days away.  I fully understand the 22nd can come back to life, I'm just speaking of the frustration the average person sees.  Doesn't help when well respected TV mets are essentially saying prolonged boring, coldish weather.

 

It's like Christmas when you're ten years old, you've waited 3 weeks as presents pile under the tree with great excitement.  You open your presents on Christmas day to find you didn't get the latest and greatest toys but got a gift certificate to the jelly of the month club and 100 pairs of socks.  That's this winter...100 pairs of socks so far.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

maybe the mods can build a complain thread and just dump all the posts that are of that vein in it. that way no one gets their feelings hurt or undies misaligned about their post being deleted...and the actual weather threads can stay clean.

The biggest complainer here should start their own thread( they know who they are) and just voice issues, whines, and complaints. There would be 5-10 posters in there and they could complain amongst themselves
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