Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,585
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

False. On the euro ensembles, next week will be colder than it looked 7 days out.

 

 

Yeah I have no idea where this is coming from. We mentioned several days ago (I did at GTG also) that the Euro ensembles had like -15C 850s over us for several days next week and said that was a fairly impressive signal for like 11-12 days out but we'd have to wait and see.

 

Now its more like -18C to -20C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

it is, but some folks were talking highs in the low teens in SNE...not seeing that anywhere (unless it's 7 days or longer) Sure it's cold, but not brutal cold like the models had last week.

Next week will have a couple days that flirt with low teens for highs here I think. Ensemble mean has -18C to -20C 850s down to here for Tue/Wed which would be close. The OP Euro has -22C for two days in a row here at the same time, which would do the trick.

NWS won't forecast much below 20F that far out. They have a 20F and an 18F high here for day 5 and day 6.

And look at tomorrow - all the talk of the cold not verifying...850s look like they will end up around -18 to -19 or so here which is pretty darn close to what's been modeled for a long while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I have no idea where this is coming from. We mentioned several days ago (I did at GTG also) that the Euro ensembles had like -15C 850s over us for several days next week and said that was a fairly impressive signal for like 11-12 days out but we'd have to wait and see.

 

Now its more like -18C to -20C.

 

Maybe some are remembering a weenie op ruin that had -30C air for one run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I remember last weekend Ryan and I discussing this coming Friday. Box had me in the mid 30's for highs . I lol d at that and he said he had a 34. I said "take em down" . Looks like my high might tickle near 20. This is why you don't live and die with nws forecasts. Look elsewhere. Dig, learn

 

There was logic behind that. Look at Saturday. It was just a matter of timing and you lucked out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

the PV is about 500 miles further north than where it was modeled a week out, thats a huge change.

Actually it is the New England forum and I will be near zero tonight and have highs in the teens to near 20 the first half of next week.  That would be well below normal.  I'm glad the PV is further north than was modeled.  Was that all models over several runs or just one run?  As far as I knew we were supposed to get cold at some point this week, relax for a day or two, get cold again next week with a possible storm, perhaps relax again for a couple days and then get cold again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

You busted 7hrs out and you are going to give Ryan crap 7 days out?

I think I've more than proved that I am adept at recognizing patterns and issuing good forecasts. Did I bust on tonight's snow. Sure did. But I think I've had a pretty damn good winter overall and have added plenty of valuable forecasts . Maybe you don't agree and that's ok.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

I think I've more than proved that I am adept at recognizing patterns and issuing good forecasts. Did I bust on tonight's snow. Sure did. But I think I've had a pretty damn good winter overall and have added plenty of valuable forecasts . Maybe you don't agree and that's ok.

you go big every time and once in a while you're right

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Steve you're taking this too seriously, many were pokes in jest.  You and Jerry put it out there and that's appreciated.  It's better than those that say nothing much at all talking in generalities but pull I told you so when something doesn't go right. 

 

 

 

Yes, what I see is a rinse and repeat.  Storms are surpressed or too warm, sometimes some of us get lucky.  I do think that system around the 27th-30th is going to be warm but it brings cold with it again (and a nearby PV)

 

 

AIT, been modeled well for several days.  Cutter well to the NW, temps moderate and then finally we get the real cold before we rinse and repeat on a bigger cutter type system a few days later.

 

 

I'm still amazed how much you come under the influence of the CF there.

it might read that way , but believe me I take none of this serious,LOL  are you cereal?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Actually it is the New England forum and I will be near zero tonight and have highs in the teens to near 20 the first half of next week.  That would be well below normal.  I'm glad the PV is further north than was modeled.  Was that all models over several runs or just one run?  As far as I knew we were supposed to get cold at some point this week, relax for a day or two, get cold again next week with a possible storm, perhaps relax again for a couple days and then get cold again.

 

 

Waiting on my squalls with the arctic front here Mark, Looks like they are a half hour away or so it they hold

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...