Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Tropopause_Fold]

Going to know it when that arctic boundary moves through later on...first time in a while that we've had a FROPA with really solid CAA right behind it

[Brian5671]

So much for all the static cling cold...looks slightly below average Mon after a mild weekend...the cold progged mid to long range never materializes...which may be good, a PV sitting near us might not be all that good

[OSUmetstud]

Those analogs keep showing some of BUF's coldest days ever...but nothing looks nearly the cold in the modeling...interesting.

 

I think I found the coldest airmass in history right here...Jan 17th, 1982.

 

below -32C on the 12z sounding at 850mb.  -30c to NYC that evening.

 

Temp was -10F at 12z with a 23 kt west wind...thicknesses of 479dm.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lord have mercy

[Tropopause_Fold]

So much for all the static cling cold...looks slightly below average Mon after a mild weekend...the cold progged mid to long range never materializes...which may be good, a PV sitting near us might not be all that good

Next week is very cold

[Damage In Tolland]

Next week is very cold

Nonsense.. Highs in the low- mid teens hills and 15-20 coast is near normal.

[Brian5671]

Next week is very cold

it is, but some folks were talking highs in the low teens in SNE...not seeing that anywhere (unless it's 7 days or longer) Sure it's cold, but not brutal cold like the models had last week.

[SR Airglow]

Nonsense.. Highs in the low- mid teens hills and 15-20 coast is near normal.

Given that climo is 35/21 for me for next week 15-20 is a -15/20 and that is certianly not normal

 

-skisheep

[weatherwiz]

Yay!!!! Registered for classes

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yay!!!! Registered for classes

Nice Wiz. Good for you dude

[Brian5671]

Nonsense.. Highs in the low- mid teens hills and 15-20 coast is near normal.

15-20 at the coast? I don't see anything in Upton's forecast lower than 28 here. I see a 21 in BOX's forecast for you... will it bust too high? maybe. And I'm talking next 6-7 days...

[OSUmetstud]

it is, but some folks were talking highs in the low teens in SNE...not seeing that anywhere (unless it's 7 days or longer) Sure it's cold, but not brutal cold like the models had last week.

 

clinging onto a few model runs of -25 to -30c air is the best.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Next week is very coldit is, but some folks were talking highs in the low teens in SNE...not seeing that anywhere (unless it's 7 days or longer) Sure it's cold, but not brutal cold like the models had last week.

Nothing has changed

[Brian5671]

Given that climo is 35/21 for me for next week 15-20 is a -15/20 and that is certianly not normal

 

-skisheep

If we have a day where it stays in the teens here before next Thursday, I will eat crow. (and happily too)

[OSUmetstud]

The only reason Monday isn't colder (and it's still below normal) is because the Euro is at least attempting to develop a coastal.

[NorEaster27]

Next week is very cold

think it depends where you are, NYC south its only average to slightly below.

[Damage In Tolland]

15-20 at the coast? I don't see anything in Upton's forecast lower than 28 here. I see a 21 in BOX's forecast for you... will it bust too high? maybe. And I'm talking next 6-7 days...

You and Joe live and die with Upton . Look at some models and get some differing ideas

[CoastalWx]

Nothing has changed

 

Agreed.

[OSUmetstud]

think it depends where you are, NYC south its only average to slightly below.

 

no ****?  This is the SNE subforum...

[weatherwiz]

Nice Wiz. Good for you dude

Thanks Phil! I am so pumped right now. And my girlfriend is good at and loves math and chemistry so she can help me!!

[CoastalWx]

Yay!!!! Registered for classes

 

Good job dude. Just lay off the 40s.

[ChrisM]

I'm pretty sure nobody in Ct averages 80" of snow. 

Norfolk averages at least that much.  I probably average 65 or so maybe tickling toward 70.  I live at 1,000 feet 8 statute miles from the Norfolk line.  A lot of elevated NWCT probably averages 75-80" (Cornwall, Hartland, Colebrook, Goshen, Warren etc).

[NorEaster27]

Nothing has changed

the PV is about 500 miles further north than where it was modeled a week out, thats a huge change.

[ORH_wxman]

it is, but some folks were talking highs in the low teens in SNE...not seeing that anywhere (unless it's 7 days or longer) Sure it's cold, but not brutal cold like the models had last week.

 

 

Next week will have a couple days that flirt with low teens for highs here I think. Ensemble mean has -18C to -20C 850s down to here for Tue/Wed which would be close. The OP Euro has -22C for two days in a row here at the same time, which would do the trick.

 

NWS won't forecast much below 20F that far out. They have a 20F and an 18F high here for day 5 and day 6.

[Brian5671]

You and Joe live and die with Upton . Look at some models and get some differing ideas

Fair enough. Let's see where we end up next Thursday....

[Tropopause_Fold]

Next week is very cold

think it depends where you are, NYC south its only average to slightly below.

That's possible yeah. up here...it's a very cold week. Euro ens MEAN is like -18C mid- week.

[ChrisM]

Wow, that's impressive.  That's probably more than MPM or Pete averages.

Pete probably averages 100 or 105.

[OSUmetstud]

the PV is about 500 miles further north than where it was modeled a week out, thats a huge change.

 

a 500mile move on a 7 day lead is actually pretty decent.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Weenies

[CoastalWx]

the PV is about 500 miles further north than where it was modeled a week out, thats a huge change.

 

False. On the euro ensembles, next week will be colder than it looked 7 days out.