Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Haha touché.

I lump you with the bipolar.

I lump you with the over medicated so we are even

[mahk_webstah]

D.

D+ here but i see the potential for a B+ or A- winter

[forkyfork]

how do you have almost 10 more inches of snow this winter than I do lol?

 

 

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    /             slantstick

the other tolland poster has 30"

 

go with that

[Damage In Tolland]

how do you have almost 10 more inches of snow this winter than I do lol?

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/ slantstick

Mostly from the Nov storm but also Dec 29

[ChrisM]

Mostly from the Nov storm but also Dec 29

 

oh yeah you got 11" in one of them yeah?

[powderfreak]

They think because we have had a sh*tty winter that somehow it clouds our judgement. I've mentioned flags for days....it never had an epic look to me and may feature a lousy few days after next week...but it offers some chances I think.

 

It like like over a week ago you were saying that, too, about this upcoming pattern.  You were right in reminding folks that a period of cold, and a couple advisory or low end warning snow events over a two week period does not really mean epic.  You mentioned like a 6-inch event followed by a 4-inch event is fun times, but certainly not epic in like a Xmas 2010-January 2011 sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have about 1/4th of my normal snowfall midway through January....not good.

[weathafella]

Saturday increasingly looks like a snow obliterated.

[NorEaster27]

November was A+, rest of the winter so far is a D

[weathafella]

I will gladly eat crow if this winter comes even remotely close to what 1994 produced for the area.  96" for Boston.  What are they at right now?  3-4"?

Double that now which is still bad but not as. 3.2 yesterday helped.

[CoastalWx]

It like like over a week ago you were saying that, too, about this upcoming pattern.  You were right in reminding folks that a period of cold, and a couple advisory or low end warning snow events over a two week period does not really mean epic.  You mentioned like a 6-inch event followed by a 4-inch event is fun times, but certainly not epic in like a Xmas 2010-January 2011 sense.

 

And it certainly has potential to be more, I'm not poo-pooing it by any means...I think some people think that. I apologize if that's how it sounds.

 

It is what it is...a much better pattern to grab some snow, but not perfect IMHO. I could always be wrong and I get 40" in the next 5 weeks...lol.

[Baroclinic Zone]

i know you were saying you were not enthused about yesterday on Sunday but sometimes these things pop. Keep the cold over in Eastern Canada and I like our chances. People were touting the 22nd as the period, probably like the too quick to change models that period is more like the 25-28th for a major storm. but before that with that cold around, never discount impulses flying around, maybe a clipper, maybe a Miller B, certainly at the least squalls from dying LES.Possibly snow is in the air tomorrow, maybe Sunday again with the second Arctic impulse. 

 

Correct, I was not gung-ho for that system and it ended up going as I thought though.  It was mostly a 128 N & W system.  I still feel as though this pattern will deliver something.  I just don't see system after system nickel and diming us to 100". 

[forkyfork]

the canadian vortex needs to weaken. it's tight and either shears everything out or moves things along too quickly for anything significant

[ORH_wxman]

It like like over a week ago you were saying that, too, about this upcoming pattern.  You were right in reminding folks that a period of cold, and a couple advisory or low end warning snow events over a two week period does not really mean epic.  You mentioned like a 6-inch event followed by a 4-inch event is fun times, but certainly not epic in like a Xmas 2010-January 2011 sense.

 

 

The problem is that if one huge storm occurs in the pattern, then it instantly becomes epic...if we end up getting two advisory events and the Jan 22 deal becomes like a 12-16" storm with some vodka cold thrown in there for good measure....then its an epic 2 week period. If we only get a couple advisory events then its merely solid.

 

 

 

If you go back and read the early Jan 2011 posts, we were optimistic but hardly predicting an epic month. Its simply impossible to predict an epic month because nobody can predict snowstorms more than a week out. You could end up with a January 1985 pattern here where it looks amazing on paper in the longwave pattern, but we end up skunked for good snowfalls.

[Ginx snewx]

It like like over a week ago you were saying that, too, about this upcoming pattern.  You were right in reminding folks that a period of cold, and a couple advisory or low end warning snow events over a two week period does not really mean epic.  You mentioned like a 6-inch event followed by a 4-inch event is fun times, but certainly not epic in like a Xmas 2010-January 2011 sense.

The odd thing being there was not one post that said Epic. that was pulled out of thin air. Yes many of us said the pattern PROGGED looked a lot like 94. When this winter is OVAH, then we will talk until then like I said yesterday its Jan 16th. even the great Scooterino can not be sure the next two weeks do not produce.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This winter's a C+ so far I guess.  Maybe a B- because we've had constant snowcover since the pre Christmas storm...but this part of CT should have more than 27" of snow by now.  We're just a little over a third of the way to climo.

 

I'm pretty sure nobody in Ct averages 80" of snow. 

[powderfreak]

The problem is that if one huge storm occurs in the pattern, then it instantly becomes epic...if we end up getting two advisory events and the Jan 22 deal becomes like a 12-16" storm with some vodka cold thrown in there for good measure....then its an epic 2 week period. If we only get a couple advisory events then its merely solid.

 

 

 

If you go back and read the early Jan 2011 posts, we were optimistic but hardly predicting an epic month. Its simply impossible to predict an epic month because nobody can predict snowstorms more than a week out. You could end up with a January 1985 pattern here where it looks amazing on paper in the longwave pattern, but we end up skunked for good snowfalls.

 

Yeah it all hinges on getting at least one big storm and a few smaller ones.  Or a couple big ones.  To me the best stretches are to get the big storm first, then follow that snowpack with vodka cold and a few smaller events.  Getting the big one at the end of a sweet pattern only to see it slowly rot away isn't nearly as satisfying, but I think we'd all take any sort of good event we can, lol.  Even if its a 12-18 incher sandwiched between torches.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm pretty sure nobody in Ct averages 80" of snow. 

 

 

Norfolk averages 92"...but not many people live there.

[weathafella]

You would think that we'd ha e a prolonged subnormal period at some point unless the clate is more fukked than I think it is. Maybe it starts now.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The odd thing being there was not one post that said Epic. that was pulled out of thin air. Yes many of us said the pattern PROGGED looked a lot like 94. When this winter is OVAH, then we will talk until then like I said yesterday its Jan 16th. even the great Scooterino can not be sure the next two weeks do not produce.

 

Steve you're taking this too seriously, many were pokes in jest.  You and Jerry put it out there and that's appreciated.  It's better than those that say nothing much at all talking in generalities but pull I told you so when something doesn't go right. 

 

 

the canadian vortex needs to weaken. it's tight and either shears everything out or moves things along too quickly for anything significant

 

Yes, what I see is a rinse and repeat.  Storms are surpressed or too warm, sometimes some of us get lucky.  I do think that system around the 27th-30th is going to be warm but it brings cold with it again (and a nearby PV)

 

Saturday increasingly looks like a snow obliterated.

 

AIT, been modeled well for several days.  Cutter well to the NW, temps moderate and then finally we get the real cold before we rinse and repeat on a bigger cutter type system a few days later.

 

I have about 1/4th of my normal snowfall midway through January....not good.

 

I'm still amazed how much you come under the influence of the CF there.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Norfolk averages 92"...but not many people live there.

 

Wow, that's impressive.  That's probably more than MPM or Pete averages.

[powderfreak]

The odd thing being there was not one post that said Epic. that was pulled out of thin air. Yes many of us said the pattern PROGGED looked a lot like 94. When this winter is OVAH, then we will talk until then like I said yesterday its Jan 16th. even the great Scooterino can not be sure the next two weeks do not produce.

 

lol... there was at least one poster that was mentioning an epic pattern upcoming.  It may have even been tweeted.

 

But yes, you are right Steve... hindsight is 20/20 and until that point, hard to really say.  I definitely fall on the more cautious side of forecasting that sort of stuff.  I just don't like to get hopes up at the ski resort... would rather prepare for a "worst case" scenario out of a given pattern and then take anything more as gravy.  I think that's where my pessimism comes from sometimes.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The problem is that if one huge storm occurs in the pattern, then it instantly becomes epic...if we end up getting two advisory events and the Jan 22 deal becomes like a 12-16" storm with some vodka cold thrown in there for good measure....then its an epic 2 week period. If we only get a couple advisory events then its merely solid.

 

 

 

If you go back and read the early Jan 2011 posts, we were optimistic but hardly predicting an epic month. Its simply impossible to predict an epic month because nobody can predict snowstorms more than a week out. You could end up with a January 1985 pattern here where it looks amazing on paper in the longwave pattern, but we end up skunked for good snowfalls.

Not in my book.  One storm nor one or 2 weeks of epics snow make a winter epic.

[snowman21]

I'm pretty sure nobody in Ct averages 80" of snow. 

I wouldn't say nobody averages 80 inches since Norfolk probably gets there frequently as the snowiest spot in Connecticut, but even there the new normal has adjusted downward to something like 78 inches from 86 or so. Most of Connecticut averages 4 ft or less. There is another sliver of generally low population areas, higher spots towards the Mass. border that approach 60 inches or are around 5 ft give or take. Then there is that last 1 or 2%, generally the higher elevations of the NW hills that are 60+.

[powderfreak]

Not in my book.  One storm nor one or 2 weeks of epics snow make a winter epic.

 

I think ORH was just speaking in terms of a given pattern...not a winter.  At least we were talking about how a pattern becomes epic. 

 

You can have a brief epic pattern for 2-3 weeks inside an overall meh winter.  That's sort of how its gone up here so far...from that mid/late December through the first week of January where all the ski area summits were putting up 80+ inches in 21 days.  That was a great stretch.  But its been put inside an otherwise meh period of the first half of December blowing, then a darn good melt down over the last week.  If that stretch is all we really get, its not an epic winter... but for those 2-3 weeks it was a solid pattern.

[CoastalWx]

The odd thing being there was not one post that said Epic. that was pulled out of thin air. Yes many of us said the pattern PROGGED looked a lot like 94. When this winter is OVAH, then we will talk until then like I said yesterday its Jan 16th. even the great Scooterino can not be sure the next two weeks do not produce.

 

 

LOL, but I did not say it couldn't produce. I know you can take practically two similar patterns and have two different outcomes. One little difference in an upper level feature makes all the difference. It's fair to say this pattern resembles some of the best ones we've had, but also fair to say it's missing a couple of things. I'm just trying to present both sides...I don't understand why that seems frowned upon and I never wrote this time off...I'm still optimistic into February.

 

Perhaps all this stems from those 94 analogs.

[ORH_wxman]

I think ORH was just speaking in terms of a given pattern...not a winter.  At least we were talking about how a pattern becomes epic. 

 

You can have a brief epic pattern for 2-3 weeks inside an overall meh winter.

 

 

Yes, I said "an epic 2 week period" when describing the rough criteria. Not talking about the winter overall.

[dryslot]

Looks like a cold and dry pattern for the foreseeable future, Hopefully Feb can produce or we can just punt the winter

[ORH_wxman]

We can hope the Canadian ensembles are right...their top two analogs are 1/11/94 and 1/15/05....both were pretty good patterns, lol.

[CoastalWx]

Lets also hope the euro ensembles are right and trend any possible "mild" storm into a SWFE.