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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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why was it that hm was saying the models would be particularly sucky?  I feel like this is a pattern where stuff could pop up at 72-96, outta nowhere

 

 

Well I would say maybe 5-6 days out models could pop something. I thought he was referring to model performance.

 

In any case, the period after this coming week has some volatility with it as the Pacific tries to roar back and we possible get SWFE or even a cutter. Then, it seems like we may reload.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Great euro run, can not believe some of the posters on here. I think they think we should have Alaska Climo.

It was a cold run. Not so muc for snow but its working on next week and smething At the end of the 10 day period so give it time. Reinforcing arctic at end of the run. Sounds like pattern flattens temporarily right after per Scott N description of ensembles.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It was a cold run. Not so muc for snow but its working on next week and smething At the end of the 10 day period so give it time. Reinforcing arctic at end of the run. Sounds like pattern flattens temporarily right after per Scott N description of ensembles.

 

You can see it on the GEFS too....actually they probably are more aggressive with the relaxation. But, this was really in the cards for several days. I don't think anything really has changed.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I agree with LL on temps on Sat. Wouldn't surprise me if some southern spots approach 50F - maybe just fall short. Hills could get into the lower 40s - that's not impossible by any stretch. But whether its 38 or 41..:it'll be "mild" on Saturday.

But then the hammer drops.

 

I;m hoping we can grab a few inches. Otherwise, I'll be bummed if we can't even snag a few inches with this airmass.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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There's drf 2 types of posters on here. Very clear delineation

from CPC, 

 

•The MJO favors an increased likelihood for below-normal temperatures for parts of the central and eastern U.S. during the last 7-10 days of January into early February. Drier-than-average conditions are also favored for portions of the western U.S.
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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted

from CPC, 

 

•The MJO favors an increased likelihood for below-normal temperatures for parts of the central and eastern U.S. during the last 7-10 days of January into early February. Drier-than-average conditions are also favored for portions of the western U.S.

Nice! I saw the clivar this morning and thought it looked damned good.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Loop this http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNH_loop.html, any one who believes a GFS run that shows cutters starting with hour 204, good luck. Wonder why Scooter has not mentioned his fetish MJO amplifying into phase 8 in the Ens?

 

It reeks of suppression in the next 7-8 days until the PV lifts out.

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