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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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They definitely relax with the PNA dropping and signs of walking the line, but then reload near the end. That 11-15 day isn't that pretty IMO, but if you blended GEFS and Euro...it would be better. I buy the relax and reload period. My hope is to grab something next week.

I should say more like 12-14 day timeframe.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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They definitely relax with the PNA dropping and signs of walking the line, but then reload near the end. That 11-15 day isn't that pretty IMO, but if you blended GEFS and Euro...it would be better. I buy the relax and reload period. My hope is to grab something next week.

I should say more like 12-14 day timeframe.

Picking up something at the beginning of the relaxation period or reload may be the best chances.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

They definitely relax with the PNA dropping and signs of walking the line, but then reload near the end. That 11-15 day isn't that pretty IMO, but if you blended GEFS and Euro...it would be better. I buy the relax and reload period. My hope is to grab something next week.

I should say more like 12-14 day timeframe.

 

The PNA relaxes but the -NAO starts to develop at Day 9-10 on the 12z ECM. You can see higher heights wrapping back into eastern and northern Greenland. I wonder if we're left with a -NAO/-AO for February after one last PNA spike at the end of January, which is signaled at Day 10 on the Euro. 18z GFS also has the cold coming back after Day 10 once a storm passes to the north, as heights build out west. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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The PNA relaxes but the -NAO starts to develop at Day 9-10 on the 12z ECM. You can see higher heights wrapping back into eastern and northern Greenland. I wonder if we're left with a -NAO/-AO for February after one last PNA spike at the end of January, which is signaled at Day 10 on the Euro. 18z GFS also has the cold coming back after Day 10 once a storm passes to the north, as heights build out west. 

 

I could see the -NAO try to battle back. We still have to see how this new warming at 50mb is going to act on the pattern...it may try to keep the ridge near AK going...especially that block to the north.  I wouldn't be shocked at a relaxation for a few days which will probably pull out the noose posts as Will said..but then perhaps a reload heading towards Feb. I think I'm starting to feel ok about a more wintry Feb....I really hope I did not jinx it. I'm not on the epic train with this pattern..but it will offer chances I think. I'm still watching out for next week too...we have two chances.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
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most here did not expect more than a few days of a +PNA given the strong pac jet and SST profile in the North Pacific, I spoke about this 2 weeks ago. Not to mention the hammer I drilled about the lack of any sort of -NAO, east or west based.

 

I think the chatter for a long time now has been with regards to what the MJO would do in forcing the PNA state to go more positive.. The SST state in the north pacific has been a nice couplet to the -PNA "base state" that has dominated this winter so far, but one shouldnt get too carried away with SSTs when staring other forcings like the MJO in the face...Also, the NAO is clearly east-based here going forward. And the reason why its not more west-based intially is the position of the spv in eastern Canada..but this positioning is supporting our cold outbreaks swinging through as we head into later Jan 

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
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Can we all just stop and take a minute to reflect on the hole that was ripped in the atmosphere yesterday over the western Pacific. Really impressive stuff.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/3/entry-30-holy-bombogenesis-w-pac-1152013/

 

For what it's worth, similar to recurving typhoons, some research I did last year found that extratropical bombs over the western Pacific have a similar effect on the wave train downstream, with the result frequently being a cyclogenesis event east of the Rockies around 7-9 days later. Take it for what it's worth. There is at least another piece of support for something beyond the 22nd.

Ya I was going to post about this earlier in the day and got caught up but here is the graphic from last night. Not using the usual Mike V. CCKW map. This xt-RWT is too far north to show up on that map. But I have circled the 2 RWTs. The closest one at about 130W is still expected to come over the top of the ridge as a clipper on the 20th as I discussed last week. The second one that you have pointed out I have timed to arrive Jan 24 into 25 across the East. I believe it will follow suit and be a clipper. At last check this morning as HM said the models would do and they are really struggling with it. The Euro broke up the energy and had it spinning off weaker pieces of energy for several days after it's collision with the high and the GFS took it over the top delivering it as a clipper across the GLKS on 0z 1/25. Time will tell what the correct answer is. I believe it will end up being a clipper as the 1/20 wave is progged. 

post-3697-0-17918300-1358381831_thumb.jp

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Hey, this is the one you've been watching and excited about for like 10 days. No need to give up on it when it looks good this morning

 

That was directed to your comment of it being near ACK. It's like 200 miles east of it..lol.

 

I'm half meh on this. I'd like to see the euro come west and the GFS to hint at this. Better happen soon.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Looks like there's a pretty good sgnal for relax and reload and we may have an opportunity for a system of some merit in the d11-13 range. Reload is signaled at the need of the GEFS. Euro d10 looks pretty cold but I thought it was showing a relax and reload per description of 11-15 yesterday? On the GEFS 11-13 relaxation, if a system cuts too much it may well get quite mild for a short time.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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Looks like there's a pretty good sgnal for relax and reload and we may have an opportunity for a system of some merit in the d11-13 range. Reload is signaled at the need of the GEFS. Euro d10 looks pretty cold but I thought it was showing a relax and reload per description of 11-15 yesterday? On the GEFS 11-13 relaxation, if a system cuts too much it may well get quite mild for a short time.

Any reload should cut a storm to our NW as the pattern does not support coastal development.

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