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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Meh 1/22 goes to the grinder on the GFS.

I'm not sold on 1/22.  I am sold on a big storm later in the week though.  I think it is easier to get a big storm after the arctic air has settled in and is perhaps lifting out a bit, than it is to get a storm as it is coming in.  There has been a constant signal for a big storm next week at some point and I think we will get one.

 

Full disclosure:  I'll be in London from the 20th-23rd so that might be biasing my view lol.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Can we all just stop and take a minute to reflect on the hole that was ripped in the atmosphere yesterday over the western Pacific. Really impressive stuff.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/3/entry-30-holy-bombogenesis-w-pac-1152013/

 

For what it's worth, similar to recurving typhoons, some research I did last year found that extratropical bombs over the western Pacific have a similar effect on the wave train downstream, with the result frequently being a cyclogenesis event east of the Rockies around 7-9 days later. Take it for what it's worth. There is at least another piece of support for something beyond the 22nd.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I know I've seemed too negative recently (who can blame me as I watch WSWs get hoisted to my south today and have been repeatedly on the wrong side of the r/s line this winter) but there are reasons to remain cautious with next week's waves. I have stated my concerns with the MJO for the last couple of weeks and what that may mean for a more oscillating jet structure/PNA instead of a full blown consistent PNA/Arctic pattern late Jan. As the Pacific changes each 3-4 day period due to various reasons, waves will crash into the ridge out west. Be very mindful of this when interpreting guidance beyond day 5 and especially on the GFS with truncation. There is going to be significant model errors during this time...more than usual.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I know I've seemed too negative recently (who can blame me as I watch WSWs get hoisted to my south today and have been repeatedly on the wrong side of the r/s line this winter) but there are reasons to remain cautious with next week's waves. I have stated my concerns with the MJO for the last couple of weeks and what that may mean for a more oscillating jet structure/PNA instead of a full blown consistent PNA/Arctic pattern late Jan. As the Pacific changes each 3-4 day period due to various reasons, waves will crash into the ridge out west. Be very mindful of this when interpreting guidance beyond day 5 and especially on the GFS with truncation. There is going to be significant model errors during this time...more than usual.

I've thrown flags out all around since the PAC is still a bit up in the air for me. A lot of people have 93-94 in their head and while it can produce..I don't quite see that yet.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I've thrown flags out all around since the PAC is still a bit up in the air for me. A lot of people have 93-94 in their head and while it can produce..I don't quite see that yet.

 

The orientation of the strat anomalies are going to hinder the -AO anomaly from building down into the NAO domain in the next 7 days. But, I wonder if this is a mistake in the modeling? The longer this takes, the more subject we will be to the Pacific throwing us a curve ball.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

This is why in the other thread the focus for the analysis was derived off the 21 member GEFs-derived teleconnector, which currently shows a very concerted rise among the members with limited spread - that was the first point.  That much agreement is encouraging for determinism, though not absolute of course...  But it helps smooth out perturbation fears.  

 

The 2nd point was an apparent rise in both the EPO/NAO domains, signaling the SPV over Jame Bay and vicinity should weaken.   

 

What that left with was a PNA spike with the flow relaxing in the TV - operational models began taking advantage of that within the days after posting that but agreed, they've backed off a little.  Still, the governing parameters are still evolving the same way as originally assessed, so imo there is just as much chance for greater amplitude depictions to spill out of new cycles. 

I know I've seemed too negative recently (who can blame me as I watch WSWs get hoisted to my south today and have been repeatedly on the wrong side of the r/s line this winter) but there are reasons to remain cautious with next week's waves. I have stated my concerns with the MJO for the last couple of weeks and what that may mean for a more oscillating jet structure/PNA instead of a full blown consistent PNA/Arctic pattern late Jan. As the Pacific changes each 3-4 day period due to various reasons, waves will crash into the ridge out west. Be very mindful of this when interpreting guidance beyond day 5 and especially on the GFS with truncation. There is going to be significant model errors during this time...more than usual.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Also, re the MJO:

 

NCEP - "The statistical tools and other dynamical model forecasts maintain eastward propagation into the western Hemisphere."

 

I find that interesting because they're weekly PDF update released yesterday showed an ensemble mean that still "curled" the amplitude back inward into the 6th Phase space.  Where as the overnight run now shows a significantly eastward repositioning of that behavior; still curling that backward but doing so more in 7

ensplume_small.gif

It would seem quite plausible that we have a medium or greater intensity wave that may end up deeper into Phase 7.   

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

New ECMWF shows exactly my concerns from yesterday and my concerns with the tropical forcing from last week on the PNA outcome in late-Jan.

most here did not expect more than a few days of a +PNA given the strong pac jet and SST profile in the North Pacific, I spoke about this 2 weeks ago. Not to mention the hammer I drilled about the lack of any sort of -NAO, east or west based.
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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I think the euro ens have damped the pna for days now but try to keep nao making it very latitude dependent ala 94. If the epo goes, the it's a big problem since the cold dump seems to depend on it for seeding. I don't think there's any doubt that we're entering a much better pattern vs the past 6 weeks.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think the euro ens have damped the pna for days now but try to keep nao making it very latitude dependent ala 94. If the epo goes, the it's a big problem since the cold dump seems to depend on it for seeding. I don't think there's any doubt that we're entering a much better pattern vs the past 6 weeks.

 

 

The block north of AK doesn't go anywhere in the LR...which is a very good thing. We may have to deal with some SWFEs beyond D9-10 with risk of taint as PNA relaxes...ala 94...but our cold air supply should remain solidly intact. There's a hint of a bit of reload near the end of the month which has a good chance of causing another round of suicide posts.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The block north of AK doesn't go anywhere in the LR...which is a very good thing. We may have to deal with some SWFEs beyond D9-10 with risk of taint as PNA relaxes...ala 94...but our cold air supply should remain solidly intact. There's a hint of a bit of reload near the end of the month which has a good chance of causing another round of suicide posts.

\

That's the most stable feature yet.

 

I think we'll have to walk the line a bit after day 10, but hopefully the EC caves the GEFS idea of a reload.

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