Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[weatherMA]

18z GFS trended south with the clipper as well and brings precip as far south as CON. Still has a long way to go though...not sure we can get it far enough south.

[weathafella]

The entire OP run of the 18z GFS was like carbon 1994 with quick hitting snowy systems every few days.

[CoastalWx]

The entire OP run of the 18z GFS was like carbon 1994 with quick hitting snowy systems every few days.

C'mon Jerry....lead your flock to the promised land.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are worthy of getting arrested for indecent exposure.

[Mr Torchey]

The entire OP run of the 18z GFS was like carbon 1994 with quick hitting snowy systems every few days.

It was pure porn.

[Mr Torchey]

GEFS are worthy of getting arrested for indecent exposure.

Nice.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

GEFS are worthy of getting arrested for indecent exposure.

Now that's the type of results we like to hear about.

[OSUmetstud]

Looks like arctic temps are at record warm levels for this time of year at 50mb and 70mb...the SSW is beginning to abate above that.

[CoastalWx]

GFS loves day 6.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS getting much closer now on 1/22....has a moderate event.

[Tropopause_Fold]

yes please.

[ORH_wxman]

Close to major for eastern areas.

[ORH_wxman]

yes please.

 

 

Harwinton, CT jackpot? Always the case in the large storms.

[weathafella]

Verbatim a warning criteria snow for many of us and blizzard potential.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Harwinton, CT jackpot? Always the case in the large storms.

lol

contrary to popular belief it does actually snow here. whether it does on the 22nd i don't know...but it does happen. and they can be big ones.

[ORH_wxman]

lol

contrary to popular belief it does actually snow here. whether it does on the 22nd i don't know...but it does happen. and they can be big ones.

 

 

I think Jan 2005 was a big hoax/conspiracy....didn't really do much there.

[weathafella]

I think Jan 2005 was a big hoax/conspiracy....didn't really do much there.

The weather version of Ahmadinejad.

[CoastalWx]

lol

contrary to popular belief it does actually snow here. whether it does on the 22nd i don't know...but it does happen. and they can be big ones.

He and most other posters have no idea what is was like after.

[free_man]

gfs looks solid 7h and the evolution is interesting from a mid and upper atmosphere pov..   could care less what the sfc shows.

 

probably will be a major snowstorm.   cool!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

It's even minimum Major for SE NY.

[free_man]

lol

contrary to popular belief it does actually snow here. whether it does on the 22nd i don't know...but it does happen. and they can be big ones.

Snowpack retention....before civilization can travel over the bridges to observe, it has all melted away.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS has been spitting out some obscenely weenie-ish OP runs lately....not a shock since the GEFS and Euro ensembles are also porn when it comes to the longwave pattern, so the higher res OP run will have some really fun runs in there.

 

Tonight's run was no exception. Kevin's deep winter is reality in the model world tonight.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I noticed that the GFS OP has accelerated the storm a whole 24 hours since 12Z.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

1/22 is the real deal.  funny for how long that's been a signal.  I'm pretty sure if you go back even on some of the 7-8 day old GFS runs they had a system.

[ORH_wxman]

1/22 is the real deal.  funny for how long that's been a signal.  I'm pretty sure if you go back even on some of the 7-8 day old GFS runs they had a system.

 

 

Euro ensembles sort of had the signal at like 11 days out. We were talking about ti at the GTG and I mentioned how it had been kind of hinted at for a couple days already.

 

 

Classic Archambault signal

 

 

[TalcottWx]

1/22 will deliver

[ORH_wxman]

Absolute bomb by the GGEM for 1/22.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Euro ensembles sort of had the signal at like 11 days out. We were talking about ti at the GTG and I mentioned how it had been kind of hinted at for a couple days already.

 

 

Classic Archambault signal

 

 

 

One thing that's really improved is the general detection of events.  I'll dig up the posts from a week or two ago...but I was mainly basing that off of rough threats that seemed to persist in the OP GFS and that had some support.  The 18th, 22nd, and something around the 28-30th keep coming up.  And as it turns out they're all real.  It's much improved from years ago where most went from 970mb lows on the east coast to not so much as a frog fart within 700 miles of the coast.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles are very meh with 1/22.

[CooL]

Euro ensembles are very meh with 1/22.

 

as is the euro op, very flat. Should be interesting to see where we go with this in the next few days