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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

so far out there but i do like that time period...even if it's just a norlun type feature extending back toward E regions as scooter mentioned earlier. 

just for :weenie: sake ,  iirc,    jan '05 was a tease too as most of the models showed either a norlun type evolution (gfs?),   or a near-miss phase.     At least outside of 72-84hr.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Saki was concerned the GEFS warmed last night. 12z cooled off again.

 

Saki was concerned the GEFS warmed last night. 12z cooled off again.

 

Don't know why it double quoted.

 

But in the key times where it seems to be verifying much too cold....

 

12z to last nights 0z, this run cut back even on last nights "warm" run.  the problem isn't 8-15 days, the problem is as we drop inside.  We'll see.  It may not end up mattering much for us, but this run chopped the extent of the cold on the western and southern edge from the earlier run.  Like I said, we'll see over time but my bet is the GEFS in particular is going to run 10, maybe 15c too cold as we approach the 10 day period (constant run).  The cold is coming for sure, I'm just not sold still that it's the extreme being portrayed beyond the brief couple of day shots.

And keep in mind...maybe the reason the Euro is more "amped" is because it doesn't have as severe a cold bias...so instead of the GFS storm after storm out east in the right spot as the cold is backed off we end up with more amped, more dangerous events in terms of temps.  JMHO .

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The Euro almost brings a squall line of grauple maybe flashing to S+ through with the arctic front on Sunday, lol. It looks almost convective. Def a WINDEX look....but way too early to get detailed about it. Could look like crap on the next run.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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The Euro almost brings a squall line of grauple maybe flashing to S+ through with the arctic front on Sunday, lol. It looks almost convective. Def a WINDEX look....but way too early to get detailed about it. Could look like crap on the next run.

 

 

Need Sundays more like Tues or even further south, Looks like another decent shot at some snow

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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240 is a KU setup if I ever saw one. Classic western ridge....NAO west block...massive 50/50 low.

 

If somehow next week failed, the setup continues to "favor" cyclogenesis near the EC so I wouldn't lose a ton of faith. Not that patience means much for cstl folks, but it could be one of those patterns where you miss one storm, but grab the next...if you know what I mean.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Yeah Scott...it was just showing that there is still model volatility. But I am not surprised. Both models are handling the tropics a bit differently too which adds uncertainty.

 

I'd argue we're better off without the severe cold for snow chances, but we'll see.

 

I'm not forecasting either way other than to so I think on a broad scale (not IMBY MBY) the GEFS is going to prove too cold.  Anything is on the table from a surpressed severe cold pattern to a more relaxed pattern where we are straddling the fence again after this big event around the 22-23.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I'd argue we're better off without the severe cold for snow chances, but we'll see.

 

I'm not forecasting either way other than to so I think on a broad scale (not IMBY MBY) the GEFS is going to prove too cold.  Anything is on the table from a surpressed severe cold pattern to a more relaxed pattern where we are straddling the fence again after this big event around the 22-23.

 

Exactly. You want it cold, but how many snow chances occurred with sub 500 thicknesses overhead. Hint: very few.  Most great storms had snow start with 510-522 thicknesses or so.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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All I know is it will be fun to watch this unfold over the next week. Our office Facebook page is littered with posts from the public about no winter and how warm it has been. In reality we're doing just fine up here. Snowfall is above normal at PWM and below at GYX (7" not a huge deficit). The real gripe would be NH (CON over 10" below normal) where they got screwed in that 12/27 storm.

 

Once this Arctic intrusion comes in we'll see all those posts flip to how awful the weather is and what a bad (not the weenie sense) winter we're having.

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dryslot

dryslot

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All I know is it will be fun to watch this unfold over the next week. Our office Facebook page is littered with posts from the public about no winter and how warm it has been. In reality we're doing just fine up here. Snowfall is above normal at PWM and below at GYX (7" not a huge deficit). The real gripe would be NH (CON over 10" below normal) where they got screwed in that 12/27 storm.

 

Once this Arctic intrusion comes in we'll see all those posts flip to how awful the weather is and what a bad (not the weenie sense) winter we're having.

 

 

lol, Not going to make everyone happy that's for sure, This is a far far cry from last year when we were staring at dry model runs

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Euro ensembles are great.

 

One thing I could see is a relaxation of the big cold as the PNA goes negative. This may be a time when we may see some SWFE move in..perhaps some taint for some, but then a reload potentially after as the PNA tries to go +. I could run with something progged like that.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Euro ensembles are great.

 

One thing I could see is a relaxation of the big cold as the PNA goes negative. This may be a time when we may see some SWFE move in..perhaps some taint for some, but then a reload potentially after as the PNA tries to go +. I could run with something progged like that.

Euro ensembles, GEFS, CMC ensembles, weeklies have been robust for over a week. This should be a nice long cold pattern (cold enough for Boston snow which is all I give a crap about at this point...).

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HM

HM

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Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27?

 

The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too?

 

My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Man, I really wish that clipper on guidance for Sunday was tracking about 150-200 miles south...what a nice looking system that is. Gonna be a good one for Montreal and probably down into Powderfreak's BY.

Hopefully it can at least advect enough LL moisture from the south at least to set the stage for windex event on Sun afternoon like the Euro tried to do with the arctic front passage.

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