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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The day 7-8 deal is certainly viable imo. You get a decent shortwave with very cold air moving over the warm waters (low static stability see jan 2005) and low pressure developing ovetr the waters east of HSE...that catches my attention. Even if it's an inv trough..NE winds with 510 thicknesses?? That is instability right there.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Tht day 8-9 deal is a valid threat for some snow.

 

Sure, been on the maps for awhile, let's hope it yields snow.

 

When I look at the ensembles I see a 240 hour forecast for Wednesday that will verify roughly 20c too cold in the upper Midwest/plains and by a substantial margin pretty much everywhere east of the Pacific to about Chicago.  Fast forward to the 120h run that verifies in the morning, it too was too cold out west,  The 120 day will verify about 10c too cold up here in SNE.  Closer in to the cold ends up warmer, the cold ends up more consolidated.  I trust everyone that says this is just the GEFS, it'll all be fine and it's going to get historically cold at the end of the month with plenty of snow chances.

 

Meanwhile, we've got another borderline event 2+ weeks after the last one as we wait another 5+ days for the "real" good pattern to start.  Let's hope.

 

This qualifies as my meltdown.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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so far out there but i do like that time period...even if it's just a norlun type feature extending back toward E regions as scooter mentioned earlier. 

 

Those types of thicknesses would probably yield advisory snow with even 0.10-0.15" of qpf...so if we can even just get a modest type setup, it would probably produce. Good airmass for ocean enhancement or OES as well.

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cut

cut

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Welcome back Mr or Mrs Cut

Mr.!!!!  Glad to have some winter to be excited about!!!  The last time I posted I think was when I put up pictures of my snow blower in the almost 2 feet of snow we got on a Tuesday night from about 11 PM until about 7 AM the following morning.  I had never seen that much snow in that short amount of time EVER.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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That was kind of distrubing how much that evolvution looked like Jan 2005...GGEM's got this one. :lol:

 

I've had Jan 2005 in the front of my mind with this potential next week.  Initial s/w traverses the New England area and sets up our 50/50 low as the followup s/w dive out of Canada.

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