Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[nzucker]

We were more than +8 on the month through Jan 14th...and we finished the month -2.5

 

I'm surprised you don't think this January will finish below normal, then. I think if this weekend can trend a little cooler, we have a decent shot at below average temps for the month. Next week looks brutal with -20C 850s down here...

[forkyfork]

the arctic front means business

[Ginx snewx]

The hangover from as far back as Feb 11 continues on this board. Some folks are absolutely not believing the models, it's sad. I feel bad for them.

[CoastalWx]

It seems to me that what I remember was a "thread the needle" system that somehow gave us 7 inches in a garbage pattern during a 2 week torch. That was one of those years where it would snow if Powderfreak ate too many beans or anyone else in America for that matter....

Amen. Walt Drag said the same thing too. We would thread the needle with a +NAO and meh cold, but once the airmass came to the tipping point, the snow shut off. It was incredible. Let

this be a lesson to the younger crowd. Cherish every minute of a good winter.

[CoastalWx]

The hangover from as far back as Feb 11 continues on this board. Some folks are absolutely not believing the models, it's sad. I feel bad for them.

Weeklies looked good again. We'll see what happens going forward.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm surprised you don't think this January will finish below normal, then. I think if this weekend can trend a little cooler, we have a decent shot at below average temps for the month. Next week looks brutal with -20C 850s down here...

 

 

Its not impossible...but we really don't start the process until Friday...which is the 18th. We'll really start putting a big dent in the + anomalies, but not sure it can totally wipe them out.

[ineedsnow]

Worked at worcester state today cant believe most of the snow is gone there!! Only a few spots bare here but still mostly full cover..    Also looks like westfield kept theres  Springfield not so lucky.. 

 

http://www.stanleypark.org/page/stanley-park-live

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The hangover from as far back as Feb 11 continues on this board. Some folks are absolutely not believing the models, it's sad. I feel bad for them.

 

Days and days of static electricity.

[CoastalWx]

I'm fairly confident this will not be a dry pattern going forward. I don't mean + departures on precip, but I don't see bone dry.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm fairly confident this will not be a dry pattern going forward. I don't mean + departures on precip, but I don't see bone dry.

 

Get out the 1994 era hot water dual element humidifier, add the salt, line them up and be ready for this.  Heavy cracked lips and crusty elbows inbound otherwise.

 

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Get out the 1994 era hot water dual element humidifier, add the salt, line them up and be ready for this. Heavy cracked lips and crusty elbows inbound otherwise.

Well like I said, it may be below normal, but I'm not worried about jan 2004 style QPF.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well like I said, it may be below normal, but I'm not worried about jan 2004 style QPF.

 

I'm not saying it's going to be below normal QPF, all we really know is it's going to be cold and that's going to be a shock outdoors as well as indoors.   For the last 3 winters (Feb 11 onward) you could get away without indoor humidity as it wasn't that cold often in SNE.   This is hair sticking up, shock the pets when you touch them type stuff inbound.   For you and the little one, you'll want a good vaporizer cranking. 

[weathafella]

The hangover from as far back as Feb 11 continues on this board. Some folks are absolutely not believing the models, it's sad. I feel bad for them.

Well some are trolls and others just have the "show me the money" attitude. I think it's clear that we'll. be cold for a pretty decently long spell. I'll be pissed if we don't get decent snow.

[CoastalWx]

Well some are trolls and others just have the "show me the money" attitude. I think it's clear that we'll. be cold for a pretty decently long spell. I'll be pissed if we don't get decent snow.

The snow part is the biggest question because it will get cold. The one thing we have to watch out for, are these lows that blow up and become coastal huggers with the lack of good blocking. If we can keep a good ridge out west, block north of Ak, and maybe a weak -NAO then it's good for us.

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty damned impressive cold shot on the GFS into the CONUS.

[weathafella]

Next week is the coldest week in a long time it seems.

[ORH_wxman]

Next week is the coldest week in a long time it seems.

 

 

Since at least January 2009 I think. It looks more impressive though on a larger scale than what I remember from that month though.

[CoastalWx]

It will be cold, hopefully it can lay a few weeks and we grab decent snow. The latter more of a wildcard.

[ORH_wxman]

Def more impressive than anything we saw from CONUS perspective than Jan 2009...I just went back and looked at the coldest periods during that month. Prob best since Jan 2005 anyway.

[rgwp96]

snow and sleet here in north jersey and just saw lightning( i think lol) dont know what else that blue flash would be)

[Typhoon Tip]

snow and sleet here in north jersey and just saw lightning( i think lol) dont know what else that blue flash would be)

 

transformer 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It will be cold, hopefully it can lay a few weeks and we grab decent snow. The latter more of a wildcard.

 

From a temp standpoint how much do you think the snowcover enhances the cold?  5 degrees on average maybe?

[free_man]

snow and sleet here in north jersey and just saw lightning( i think lol) dont know what else that blue flash would be)

police lights? 

[TalcottWx]

Tim Kelley tweeting about a blizzard this weekend lol

[The_Global_Warmer]

From a temp standpoint how much do you think the snowcover enhances the cold?  5 degrees on average maybe?

 

From a temp standpoint how much do you think the snowcover enhances the cold?  5 degrees on average maybe?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=77423&source=0

[CoastalWx]

From a temp standpoint how much do you think the snowcover enhances the cold? 5 degrees on average maybe?

It depends, it definitely can knock it down a few degrees. Snow remains the wildcard to this whole pattern change. I'm not sold on big snows right now, despite what a few weenies think.

[Ginx snewx]

EURO had a bizarre run but Ens on both GFS and Euro look the same

[Ginx snewx]

6 z GFS looks pretty special

[weathafella]

6 z GFS looks pretty special

The d8-9 eastern MA crusher?

[Allsnow]

The d8-9 eastern MA crusher?

That would be some high ratio fluff