Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm looking forward to Tuesdays event. I'm 100% convinced we get some type of wintry precip from that. Maybe ice to a few inches of snow or something like that.

[forkyfork]

I'm looking forward to Tuesdays event. I'm 100% convinced we get some type of wintry precip from that. Maybe ice to a few inches of snow or something like that.

squish

[Damage In Tolland]

Good ens support. I think we'll see it come back over the weekend

[forkyfork]

The 12z euro ens mean showed rain for ct and now the 00z run barely has precip making it there

[Damage In Tolland]

See GEFs and GGEM ens

[dendrite]

Good ens support. I think we'll see it come back over the weekend

Would you ever not see a storm come back on the models?

[Tropopause_Fold]

jerry ran the cpc analogs this morning from Brookline

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

[Ginx snewx]

Euro Ens , weeklies and long term Ens bring the hounds. Warminista  folks will be hiding for a while, massive area of cold in all of Canada and the US. Forky why were you making fun of Jongers poll choice yesterday? Seemed irrelevant to SNE

[Ginx snewx]

jerry ran the cpc analogs this morning from Brookline

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

I was going to say something about analogs but you know how it is here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Would you ever not see a storm come back on the models?

Yeah if there was a strong block or massive confluence then I would say looks like its suppression city. We have neither of those things yet in place for the wave next week. With that front stalling over Jersey it's a recipe for a wave or 2 to get some wintry precip in here

[forkyfork]

Euro Ens , weeklies and long term Ens bring the hounds. Warminista  folks will be hiding for a while, massive area of cold in all of Canada and the US. Forky why were you making fun of Jongers poll choice yesterday? Seemed irrelevant to SNE

 

lol you deleted your vote

[dendrite]

I'm going to wait until Sunday, but this guy liked the models last night.

I did too overall, but I hate those rare times where we get true arctic cold in here with bare ground. That's why I threw the disconcerting out there. Long term looks good.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Remember....

 

the Alamo

[dendrite]

Yeah if there was a strong block or massive confluence then I would say looks like its suppression city. We have neither of those things yet in place for the wave next week. With that front stalling over Jersey it's a recipe for a wave or 2 to get some wintry precip in here

I don't recall this ever occurring on the forums.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I don't recall this ever occurring on the forums.

 

you mean Kevin actually posting something with substance?

[Damage In Tolland]

you mean Kevin actually posting something with substance?

Do you like to joke around with folks?

[ORH_wxman]

jerry ran the cpc analogs this morning from Brookline

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

Jan 1994 showing up 3 times out of the ten closest patterns.

 

 

I was saying last night while the OP GFS was coming out, it was like a striking image of 1994 in the clown range

[weathafella]

jerry ran the cpc analogs this morning from Brookline

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

Old guys feeling it....it's coming!

[CoastalWx]

I did too overall, but I hate those rare times where we get true arctic cold in here with bare ground. That's why I threw the disconcerting out there. Long term looks good.

 

Yeah I hear you. I'm still not in the suppresion worry camp yet, but lots of time left.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Do you like to joke around with folks?

 

what do you mean?

[Damage In Tolland]

what do you mean?

Well I do joke a lot on here, but also have many meteorologically clad posts and ideas. We'd just like to see a little more joy and brevity from you along with your great met posts

[forkyfork]

Yeah if there was a strong block or massive confluence then I would say looks like its suppression city. We have neither of those things yet in place for the wave next week. With that front stalling over Jersey it's a recipe for a wave or 2 to get some wintry precip in here

 

it's not really suppression. the flow is fast and the compressed height field over the east coast doesn't allow for much amplification 

[forkyfork]

the cold period could easily be a dry one.  even more maddening if it's bookended by cutters

[Damage In Tolland]

it's not really suppression. the flow is fast and the compressed height field over the east coast doesn't allow for much amplification

Yeah it's not gonna be a big wound up system but something capable of dropping .50-75 of liquid equiv. that's sort of how I see it evolving

[ORH_wxman]

I'm going to guess that Maine is in for some pretty cold weather with Jan 1994 and Jan 2009 being popular analogs.

[forkyfork]

Yeah it's not gonna be a big wound up system but something capable of dropping .50-75 of liquid equiv. that's sort of how I see it evolving

 

if you get that much precip it's going to be rain

[Damage In Tolland]

if you get that much precip it's going to be rain

I would be mostly ice and the snow would be from ORH north. Lets see how it evolves

[CoastalWx]

Bunch of weenies.

[Baroclinic Zone]

For early next week, my money is on a relatively dry fropa with some ra/snsh not amounting to much.  Flow is being compressed by that ULL pressing into the lower Hudson Bay area, coupled with a screaming jet 150kts+.  Looks hostile for any type of system amplification.

[Mr Torchey]

Oh yeah baby!