Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Tropopause_Fold]

anyone have an map from the cold outbreak in 04, I thought -30 850s were over most of the upstate and north country.

'04 was colder. i'm not saying it's 2004. it's just that the 05 flip to cold wasn't as impressive, imo, as what is coming. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

'04 was colder. i'm not saying it's 2004. it's just that the 05 flip to cold wasn't as impressive, imo, as what is coming. 

 

I had multiple days in a row below 0F for lows and highs in the single digits.

[Tropopause_Fold]

'04 was colder. i'm not saying it's 2004. it's just that the 05 flip to cold wasn't as impressive, imo, as what is coming. 

05 was an impressive run though from about the 13 or 14th onward. 

 

either way. cold. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

I had multiple days in a row below 0F for lows and highs in the single digits.

in 04 you mean?

[Baroclinic Zone]

in 04 you mean?

Yes.  Jan 14-16th.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yes.  Jan 14-16th.

yeah that was a brutal month. i just went back now to look at the 05 numbers and it was actually colder than i remember. the second half of that month was pretty special. 

[NJwinter23]

The -30c line visited northern new england a few times that month..i think most notably arouind the 15th...5 day loop

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0115j5.php

[ORH_wxman]

in 04 you mean?

 

 

Yeah had to have been. Even here we didn't get multiple single digit highs in 2005, but we had several in the low teens with below 0F nights. Jan 18, 2005 did have a high of 8F. But I doubt TAN was in the single digits for a high.

 

 

2004 has the coldest 3 day average on record here. That Jan 14-16 cold outbreak was historic.

[NorEaster27]

The -30c line visited northern new england a few times that month..i think most notably arouind the 15th...5 day loop

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0115j5.php

looks like -35 kissed them for a day, NYC was around -25 which is a solid outbreak.

[Baroclinic Zone]

yeah that was a brutal month. i just went back now to look at the 05 numbers and it was actually colder than i remember. the second half of that month was pretty special. 

Not as cold but Jan 05 was right there.  A couple negative nights in there for me, the most notable, the night before "it" happened.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah had to have been. Even here we didn't get multiple single digit highs in 2005, but we had several in the low teens with below 0F nights. Jan 18, 2005 did have a high of 8F. But I doubt TAN was in the single digits for a high.

 

 

2004 has the coldest 3 day average on record here. That Jan 14-16 cold outbreak was historic.

the amazing thing about that stretch was it never let go. even the "cool ups" were cold. 

 

having now looked back at '05...i like the comparison (original thought) of flip to '05.

[ORH_wxman]

yeah that was a brutal month. i just went back now to look at the 05 numbers and it was actually colder than i remember. the second half of that month was pretty special. 

 

 

We were more than +8 on the month through Jan 14th...and we finished the month -2.5

[Baroclinic Zone]

Read it and weep Will.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTAN/2004/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=1&yearend=2004&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

14 9 4 -2 -3 -19 -24 73 35 27 30.17 30.06 29.97 10 10 3 16 9 23 0.00 Snow

15 7 2 -5 -2 -9 -24 85 64 31 29.94 29.79 29.67 10 6 2 18 9 26 0.01 Snow

 

Highs of 9 and 7 respectively off lows of -2 and -5.

[CoastalWx]

Beginning Jan '05 was mild yet found a way to snow rather nicely prior to the big Blizz. The anti last two years.

[Mr Torchey]

We were more than +8 on the month through Jan 14th...and we finished the month -2.5

Now thats Impressive!!!!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Read it and weep Will.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTAN/2004/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=1&yearend=2004&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

14 9 4 -2 -3 -19 -24 73 35 27 30.17 30.06 29.97 10 10 3 16 9 23 0.00 Snow

15 7 2 -5 -2 -9 -24 85 64 31 29.94 29.79 29.67 10 6 2 18 9 26 0.01 Snow

 

Highs of 9 and 7 respectively off lows of -2 and -5.

 

Here's the NARR map centered on the 15th of that month.

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

We were more than +8 on the month through Jan 14th...and we finished the month -2.5

yeah i forgot how cold the airmass was the entire week leading into the blizzard. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Here's the NARR map centered on the 15th of that month.

 

011500.png.gif

just for comparison sake...here's the euro for monday at 12z:

 

[ChrisM]

most of the snow is gone.  blah

 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice similarities between 05 and prog. Best part of 13 is it stays colder longer as progged

[bobbutts]

12z GFS looks bone dry for CON after the Wed event where .31" falls.

 

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.33 " and Convective: 0 "

[dendrite]

12z GFS looks bone dry for CON after the Wed event where .31" falls.

 

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.33 " and Convective: 0 "

I wouldn't worry about it. MLK is a threat and instead of having to track storms from d10 and hoping for no change in track or temps we may get some surprises in the medium range. We didn't expect much from this wave 2 days go either.

[codfishsnowman]

well at least we will be cooling off..i saw a spider outside last night and have seen lots of fies the past couple days. I do not think i ever remember seeing a spider outside in Jan before

 

 

i am starting to believe the cold is coming but i am a bit concerned about esne getting all the good stuff after the wed event. i have lived through that enough times before. hopefully there is plenty for everyone.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Good stuff incoming

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Safely back in the 30's here. 38.7 off a high of 51.6 . Nothing above 40 till Morch is my thinking

[Mr Torchey]

lol

[NJwinter23]

Euro weeklies looked excellent once again...coldest week 2 obviously, but below average 3 and 4..Those weeks all show a +PNA prevailing in general, though negative temp anomalies into western canada in week 3 sort of play into the end of the euro ensembles building that trough there..but it may just be temporary as by week 4 its back to classic looking +pna temp anomalies along side a solidly -NAO the whole way. 

[weathafella]

Someone who I work with (from California) asked if there would be anymore snow this year.....

I didn't want to jinx so I said no. (kidding...)

[Bostonseminole]

43.6 temps dropping finally

[weathafella]

Beginning Jan '05 was mild yet found a way to snow rather nicely prior to the big Blizz. The anti last two years.

It seems to me that what I remember was a "thread the needle" system that somehow gave us 7 inches in a garbage pattern during a 2 week torch. That was one of those years where it would snow if Powderfreak ate too many beans or anyone else in America for that matter....