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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

That's not saying much for jan stds. You get a ride in this wknd? Would like to go this wknd. Thinking of starting in rumford, but may need to go farther north.

 

Driving into work was depressing. Looks just like the end of winter :cry:

 

No, Had a Shriner ceremonial i had to attend so did not get out this weekend, Next weekend is a better shot, Maybe Saturday

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
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I saw something posted a while back about stratospheric equatorial temperatures on the CPC graphs. Keep in mind that these graphics cover a larger area than 5N-5S (25° if I'm not mistaken). So when these SSWs happen, they displace the cold air into the Subtropics and Tropics too, giving those graphics a cold look. But there is still a notable warm anomaly from the downwelling / subsidence of the Walker Cell in the western Pacific at 30mb. In the troposphere, there are also hostile conditions in the Central Pacific because of the Walker Cell. This is why I didn't think last week the "looping MJO" was just climo or wave interference/bad modeling.

Thanks HM! BTW you said you thought the GWO numbers looked off the other day. What was it you noted? And do you have a link to a paper or any additional info talking about ozone concentration stuff you were referring to the other day up in Canada and how it influenced your thoughts for Feb 5-10. Sounds like good stuff. 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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I saw something posted a while back about stratospheric equatorial temperatures on the CPC graphs. Keep in mind that these graphics cover a larger area than 5N-5S (25° if I'm not mistaken). So when these SSWs happen, they displace the cold air into the Subtropics and Tropics too, giving those graphics a cold look. But there is still a notable warm anomaly from the downwelling / subsidence of the Walker Cell in the western Pacific at 30mb. In the troposphere, there are also hostile conditions in the Central Pacific because of the Walker Cell. This is why I didn't think last week the "looping MJO" was just climo or wave interference/bad modeling.

HM, would you mind elaborating on how this effects the coming pattern?

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Thanks HM! BTW you said you thought the GWO numbers looked off the other day. What was it you noted? And do you have a link to a paper or any additional info talking about ozone concentration stuff you were referring to the other day up in Canada and how it influenced your thoughts for Feb 5-10. Sounds like good stuff. 

 

I'm sorry for the confusion. I meant that the positive tendency was "off to the races," haha. It was like a half ass idiom thrown into conversational-like posting, which I now realize can cause interpretation errors, haha. The ozone was merely me looking at the modeled "temperatures" in the stratosphere over the next 1-2 weeks and noting the warm anomaly (ozone) in these regions.

 

The Feb 5-10 call was made well before that based on general AAM-tropical forcing and how the troposphere may respond to the stratosphere. Head over to the Philly subforum where I elaborated more in their medium range thread. I don't have any papers on hand right now.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

I'm sorry for the confusion. I meant that the positive tendency was "off to the races," haha. It was like a half ass idiom thrown into conversational-like posting, which I now realize can cause interpretation errors, haha. The ozone was merely me looking at the modeled "temperatures" in the stratosphere over the next 1-2 weeks and noting the warm anomaly (ozone) in these regions.

 

The Feb 5-10 call was made well before that based on general AAM-tropical forcing and how the troposphere may respond to the stratosphere. Head over to the Philly subforum where I elaborated more in their medium range thread. I don't have any papers on hand right now.

Ah that clears everything up on the ozone stuff, don't worry about papers on that, I'm familiar with that mechanism. Yeah you have some great stuff in the Philly thread with Mike and Adam. Thanks again! BTW you still feeling Feb 5-10 time frame?

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

HM, would you mind elaborating on how this effects the coming pattern?

 

It could mean that troughs will dive more and more westward as we end the month, making the jet structure more wild / hostile than a persistent PNA pattern. However, I don't think the cold goes anywhere and will be available into Feb. Some type of IO forcing could ignite a PNA response as troughs keep digging further and further west in Feb, perhaps around the 5th that could lead to a more widespread winter storm threat. I elaborated a bit more in the philly subforum.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Ah that clears everything up on the ozone stuff, don't worry about papers on that, I'm familiar with that mechanism. Yeah you have some great stuff in the Philly thread with Mike and Adam. Thanks again! BTW you still feeling Feb 5-10 time frame?

 

Thanks. Yeah I still like the window. I usually like windows that have analog support (the last few did not have it, admittedly). But this time of year, it is easy for analogs to "support" since we are reaching climo peaks for snowfall. So, that is always my caveat this time of year. However, the stratosphere I suspect will allow the AO anomaly to build down into the western-central NAO regions in early Feb. As for the tropical forcing, I'm not sure how exactly it evolves but I think no matter what it won't be a negative influence (initial guess is the forcing is in the IO in early Feb).

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

HM used the the term "Morch" in the philly subforum lol.  

 

As in he would guess we won't have a Morch this year.

we're due for a cold one. Was just saying that to the wife last night when she said it was only 6 weeks to go until the start of spring...even the non weather folks have gotten used to warm marches....
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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

What's going on Chris???

 

 

um it's kind of still fresh but I'll give the very undetailed details.  Yesterday I was leaving my house, there were 3 police officers outside with a parked car.  All four doors were open.  I was stopped, questioned about the car etc but because I hadn't been home the last few days I wasn't much help.  Well...come to find out there was a person in the car and it was my friend...deceased of an apparent suicide.  Right in front of my house.  

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

um it's kind of still fresh but I'll give the very undetailed details.  Yesterday I was leaving my house, there were 3 police officers outside with a parked car.  All four doors were open.  I was stopped, questioned about the car etc but because I hadn't been home the last few days I wasn't much help.  Well...come to find out there was a person in the car and it was my friend...deceased of an apparent suicide.  Right in front of my house.  

Really sorry to hear this. That's just awful. It puts our other worries/complaints into perspective.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

um it's kind of still fresh but I'll give the very undetailed details.  Yesterday I was leaving my house, there were 3 police officers outside with a parked car.  All four doors were open.  I was stopped, questioned about the car etc but because I hadn't been home the last few days I wasn't much help.  Well...come to find out there was a person in the car and it was my friend...deceased of an apparent suicide.  Right in front of my house.  

 

 

Chris--I'm so sorry to hear that.  Best thoughts to you and his family.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Eyeball estimate is that 3 inches has survived the torch in the woods and non-windy areas. Maybe 4 in a few spots. 37 and slipping now. We spiked to 42 before the fall began.

 

Fields have plenty of grass showing where it blew off a lot.

 

Good news---I now have a dp depression for the first time in about 36 hours.  Bad news, the temp's gone up.

 

47.1/44

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