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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

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Snowcover mostly gone..Some patches left in different spots. so Ginx took a beating on that call.  But AWT..winter returned on the 15th and a low end WSW event appears on it's way tomorrow night. We are about to enter a very special 6 week period for winter wx fans. One that we will always remember with fondness in years to come.

I don't always agree with the rev but when I do, I say it today! Stay weenie my friends.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Still some questions after the 11-15 day...but lets just hope we can take advantage of whatever comes our way.

It seems like moving forward the pattern hasn't collapsed in the extended range. When did we last see that....only when it's been crapola like last winter. So since 11-15 has been stable now for going on a week, I'm pretty excited.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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It seems like moving forward the pattern hasn't collapsed in the extended range. When did we last see that....only when it's been crapola like last winter. So since 11-15 has been stable now for going on a week, I'm pretty excited.

 

The Pacific will drive this...Pacific is king. So, if that stays formidable, then weenies will be happy. I'm not being a Debbie, but I would like to see continued ridging near AK, esp if the NAO doesn't fully cooperate. Remember that going forward.

 

As it is now, it looks to remain favorable..even if we develop a -PNA. Perhaps we lose the big cold and become somewhat stormier?

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QVectorman

QVectorman

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It's Monday so I figured I would extend the outlook. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of -6 to -14C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the NE that produce near normal conditions or are we talking -10 to -20C so below normal or ...God for bid like 0 to -6C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the NE down below this week's level of -6 to -14C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving. 

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4. 

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Yes, Mentioned it last week, We can usually score on some of these if they get going soon enough, DE Maine usually does real well with these explosive systems up this way

SOme broom stuff back west but ginxy scooter phil north up into kgay land and into maine, heck even back west to orh and parts of nh.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Still some questions after the 11-15 day...but lets just hope we can take advantage of whatever comes our way.

 

Yes but as long as we get production from 3-11 even if we took another 3-7 days off before reloading....who cares.  Wall to wall tundra is unlikely, but nobody is going to care if we get alternating equal periods of good production.  We probably take a break towards the end of the month for a few days.

 

It seems like moving forward the pattern hasn't collapsed in the extended range. When did we last see that....only when it's been crapola like last winter. So since 11-15 has been stable now for going on a week, I'm pretty excited.

 

Specifically I think it's the period towards the 26-28th that has a chance of needing to be reloaded but hopefully by then we'll have plenty of snow.

 

--

 

Dirty torch.  Miserable weather day after day.   Foggy for two days, no sun, no wind, nothing exciting at all, but departure smashing and record smashing for places like Mount Washington.  It is pretty amazing that they smashed their all time high for January yesterday at 48 degrees.

 

Also interesting that the JMA and UKMET were the first two on the bus for Wednesday (GGEM was and then gave up)

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HM

HM

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I saw something posted a while back about stratospheric equatorial temperatures on the CPC graphs. Keep in mind that these graphics cover a larger area than 5N-5S (25° if I'm not mistaken). So when these SSWs happen, they displace the cold air into the Subtropics and Tropics too, giving those graphics a cold look. But there is still a notable warm anomaly from the downwelling / subsidence of the Walker Cell in the western Pacific at 30mb. In the troposphere, there are also hostile conditions in the Central Pacific because of the Walker Cell. This is why I didn't think last week the "looping MJO" was just climo or wave interference/bad modeling.

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