Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[ineedsnow]

18z gfs is actually pretty close to giving us a snowy week with a few minor events

[CoastalWx]

There is still work to do to get decent precip north of the Merrit. I would temper expectations a bit.

[Logan11]

It's sitting there tantalizing if we could get the two streams to act in unison.

 

I can recall winters when you could just never get a good phase. Low after low in the sw wasted.

That southern ULL at hr 96 all of the sudden is interesting.

[Ginx snewx]

Here's the vis sat from 1815 UTC. For whatever reason eastern CT was able to break out of the gloom.

It brightened briefly here in the real east Eastern CT

[Damage In Tolland]

There is still work to do to get decent precip north of the Merrit. I would temper expectations a bit.

But of course

[Baroclinic Zone]

That southern ULL at hr 96 all of the sudden is interesting.

going to be difficult to get that up the coast with that pv sitting to out n. nice storm for our southern brethren.

[CoastalWx]

But of course

 

Just saying. But, if you want c-1"...then it's much easier.

[CoastalWx]

going to be difficult to get that up the coast with that pv sitting to out n. nice storm for our southern brethren.

 

Indeed, but sort of made you go, hmmm.

[Logan11]

Just socked in with dense fog here now and down to 35.6F.  Localized, unmoveable pocket of stagnant chilly foggy air here.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Absolutely. I'd roll the dice though with an active pattern. 

 

I amended to add west as well to the post.  We made out pretty well with stale borderline air in December.   We only need near seasonable temps

 

going to be difficult to get that up the coast with that pv sitting to out n. nice storm for our southern brethren.

 

True, but if the models back off on the push south it may open the door a bit more for that system.  Tuesday, early weekend/later week, and then 22-24 are all prime dates.  Tuesday looks dodgy here too warm probably anyway for me, the late week type deal is interesting any significant change in the PV (continue to shove it north) may give us a shot.

[TheBudMan]

CtBlizz special lol. I'm sure Scooter and Ryan concur.....not

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi)

1/13/13, 5:53 PM

There are only two kinds of meteorologists in this world under the age of 35 @RyanMaue, and those that wish they were

[Brian5671]

CtBlizz special lol. I'm sure Scooter and Ryan concur.....not

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi)

1/13/13, 5:53 PM

There are only two kinds of meteorologists in this world under the age of 35 @RyanMaue, and those that wish they were

How arrogant

[CT Rain]

going to be difficult to get that up the coast with that pv sitting to out n. nice storm for our southern brethren.

 

 

That southern ULL at hr 96 all of the sudden is interesting.

 

4 of the GFS ensemble members blow up a decent snowstorm either Friday or Saturday with that southern stream energy. Hmm. 

[weathafella]

It would be great if we can have a game here Sunday with snow on the ground and a cold day although the brief moderation would be then. Of course if the Friday/Saturday system blows up that would change.

[mulen]

And so it is written great game you guys are having.

[ma blizzard]

4 of the GFS ensemble members blow up a decent snowstorm either Friday or Saturday with that southern stream energy. Hmm. 

would we want the southern energy to cut-off moreso from the flow so that it takes longer to eject eastwards? I was thinking this would allow more time for the PV to rotate more northeast ---> less gradient in the flow , ULL energy gets less sheared out / able to gain a little more latitude?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

4 of the GFS ensemble members blow up a decent snowstorm either Friday or Saturday with that southern stream energy. Hmm. 

 

Seems like the op runs have toyed with something in that timreframe off and on too...Euro, GGEM, GFS all at different times have been close.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

39.5/38.   Highest temp of the day so far.

 

This is my snow pack as of 4:00pm.  I'll post a comparisson on tuesday morning.

 

 

[dryslot]

Pretty good signal from the 18th on for some cold and snow chances up here in NE, I hope the ravens will enjoy it as much as we will...............   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just socked in with dense fog here now and down to 35.6F.  Localized, unmoveable pocket of stagnant chilly foggy air here.

 

 

Consider yourself lucky, same situation here.  Sections of E. NY and NW MA dodged a big torchy bullet.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well Scott said wait until Sunday.  The 0z runs are going, let's hope we get some real clarity and snow chances inside of 6-7 days to track.   Maybe Kevin's wave comes to life Tuesday but temps are still dodgy here, hoping for something with the followup waves Thur-Sun...and then next week 22-25.

 

We should start seeing the good stuff tonight for this week if there's hope.

 

So depressed about Gronkowski.   Feel really bad for the kid.

[Mr Torchey]

Just hideous.

[doug1991]

39.5/38.   Highest temp of the day so far.

 

This is my snow pack as of 4:00pm.  I'll post a comparisson on tuesday morning.

 

 

CAM00572.jpg

 

 

hey neighbor. Nice Pic. Yea are holding on fairly well. I have 38 on the BJ's special temp guage. Hopefully tomorrow is similar.

[ORH_wxman]

We still have solid pack too...but the fog is going to keep eating it overnight. This was mid afternoon here

 

[doug1991]

We still have solid pack too...but the fog is going to keep eating it overnight. This was mid afternoon here

 

That is one tired snowpack. Like mine. i hope it lasts so it turns to concrete when the cold arrives.

[ORH_wxman]

That is one tired snowpack. Like mine. i hope it lasts so it turns to concrete when the cold arrives.

 

 

Yeah if we could keep 3" or so of concrete on the bottom, that would make for an excellent base for the upcoming pattern. But regardless, we've gone nearly 3 weeks with snow pack now....more than any sustained period last winter.

[Mr Torchey]

Central Park nyc has not dropped below freezing for over 9 days in the heart of winter, to me, thats simply insane.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah if we could keep 3" or so of concrete on the bottom, that would make for an excellent base for the upcoming pattern. But regardless, we've gone nearly 3 weeks with snow pack now....more than any sustained period last winter.

Looks similar to here/Gardner/Winchendon. The fog the past 2 days is just epic.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Central Park nyc has not dropped below freezing for over 9 days in the heart of winter, to me, thats simply insane.

The past 22 or whatever months have been insane.

[rgwp96]

just basically have snow piles here with a few patches. as of right now i am +7.6 for the month