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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I don't think that's true. The height anomalies showing up over the North Pole are exceptionally impressive for a D16 ensemble mean on the GEFS. That alone will keep the PV dislodged. Even though the models lose the +PNA they don't go strongly negative with the PNA... more of a neutral setup. Very '93-'94 like.

Why do you bother talking with him? Don't you see what he's doing?
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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Why do you bother talking with him? Don't you see what he's doing?

 

He's a troll but he does have useful points once in a while. I just disagree that the pattern is a "bad" one even if the PV winds up farther north. I think it's an active pattern... not epic... but plenty of chances for fun. 

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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I don't think that's true. The height anomalies showing up over the North Pole are exceptionally impressive for a D16 ensemble mean on the GEFS. That alone will keep the PV dislodged. Even though the models lose the +PNA they don't go strongly negative with the PNA... more of a neutral setup. Very '93-'94 like.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

The cold water off the NW coast dosent scream +PNA to me, the PV has been consistently modeled too far south this winter, Im not saying its impossible but I dont think the other side of the debate is getting much play and thats wrong IMO.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Its the trend we are seeing, look where the PV was modeled for this friday a week ago.  You need a huge +PNA to get the amplification needed to move the PV as far south as modeled.  I do not see that happening, we may get a brief spike of a +PNA but I am not betting against the strong pac jet this winter.  I dont see SST in the north pacific that support a sustainted +PNA.

Look at the NPAC ridge. While the PNA is technically negative, like 94 if you have pv in that position the the EPO modeled it will rock. Now you can speculate that the pv will be 500 miles further north but that's not based on anything but your guess.

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weathafella

weathafella

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I don't think that's true. The height anomalies showing up over the North Pole are exceptionally impressive for a D16 ensemble mean on the GEFS. That alone will keep the PV dislodged. Even though the models lose the +PNA they don't go strongly negative with the PNA... more of a neutral setup. Very '93-'94 like.

Talk dirty to me momma.....

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Look at the NPAC ridge. While the PNA is technically negative, like 94 if you have pv in that position the the EPO modeled it will rock. Now you can speculate that the pv will be 500 miles further north but that's not based on anything but your guess.

 

Yeah with the EPO omega block and a strong -AO it's definitely not a "warm" pattern. Hopefully we can get some action in here off the Pacific that's well timed with a lobe energy swinging around the PV.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Too much Saki?

 

Steve late on 1/1 you were telling us the next 10 or so days would average near normal.  I think they ran at least +3 or so in Boston. 

On the 2nd you said the next 7 days looked good for weather enthusiasts with some snow and ice...then using one run of the Euro to tell us the warmup was only going to be a few/two days above normal when the rest of us were talking about mid-late month.  I mean at that point you were still calling us debbies etc when the writing was really on the wall.   

 

Yeah I know I shank some too and didn't have faith in the snowstorm 15 days ago.  I also will question/doubt most extremes at the longer ranges but you are among the last people to come around to the idea of not snowy/cold weather.  I'm one of the last to come around to cold/snowy weather (inside of 100 hours in a warm pattern) We are on opposite extremes, that's fine.

 

I want this extreme winter weather just as much as you, but I'm with Coastalwx in being on the fence as to whether it's as dominant a change as some of you believe vs transient/repeating.

 

Enjoy the game!

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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Look at the NPAC ridge. While the PNA is technically negative, like 94 if you have pv in that position the the EPO modeled it will rock. Now you can speculate that the pv will be 500 miles further north but that's not based on anything but your guess.

Without massive pattern amplification the PV will not be in that position.  As I posted above the SST's in the north pacific are the opposite of what you want for a solid +PNA.  If you loose one piece of the puzzle, the whole forecast changes.  If the PV winds up further north as I am speculating, the pattern will not be as modeled in the long range.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Without massive pattern amplification the PV will not be in that position.  As I posted above the SST's in the north pacific are the opposite of what you want for a solid +PNA.  If you loose one piece of the puzzle, the whole forecast changes.  If the PV winds up further north as I am speculating, the pattern will not be as modeled in the long range.

The EPO ridge modeled is pretty massive.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Without massive pattern amplification the PV will not be in that position.  As I posted above the SST's in the north pacific are the opposite of what you want for a solid +PNA.  If you loose one piece of the puzzle, the whole forecast changes.  If the PV winds up further north as I am speculating, the pattern will not be as modeled in the long range.

 

But we were talking about '93-'94 as an analog that didn't have a +PNA. 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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He's a troll but he does have useful points once in a while. I just disagree that the pattern is a "bad" one even if the PV winds up farther north. I think it's an active pattern... not epic... but plenty of chances for fun. 

 

Ryan one point on your discussion with noreast about the PV.  IF it ends up a couple of hundred miles north (or west I should have added) of consensus with a positive NAO JMHO it's going to be tough to get the real cold air down and we're going to open the door to even some potential warmer events. 

 

Not saying it's going to happen...just a thought.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Ryan one point on your discussion with noreast about the PV.  IF it ends up a couple of hundred miles north of consensus with a positive NAO JMHO it's going to be tough to get the real cold air down and we're going to open the door to even some potential warmer events. 

 

Not saying it's going to happen...just a thought.

 

Absolutely. I'd roll the dice though with an active pattern. 

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