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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter


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I don't understand why even what he said is a problem though Phil.  I mean he's essentially right, wrong in a few spots.   We have had a series of brutal arctic outbreaks in the 10-12 day range gradually vanish or tick down.  This one hasn't bled away entirely though like the earlier ones, but we've gone from those brutal temps down into NYC to the more MEH, seasonable to slightly below stuff -8-12c 8h across SNE with an initial very brief surge of the worst south of the northern 3 states.  If we look west this run (and some of the others) have swung wildly sometimes as much as 10 or 12c in a 12 hour run.  That's why I have a hard time with any high confidence in establishing a long term stormy/snowy pattern.  The OP GFS finally is now showing a positive NAO (per the raleighwx charts) following the GGEM/EC/ENS.

 

That said it's vastly better than what we've had for 10 days.

 

It's the tendency to extremes here that's the oddity.  On one hand we have the people constantly thinking the worst cold outbreaks are coming and the worst torches, and then those that are surprised when neither happens.  None of the extremes have worked out in New England for most of the winter.  Everything ends up muted. 

 

Anyway, as soon as the GFS jumped on the weekend NNE clipper bus the Euro got off.  Nice cold shot Friday, moderates over the weekend but keeps us at least "cold".  Epic perhaps not, but we didn't want -30 air driven deep anyway for real snow chances most of the time.

 

We're still seeing huge changes day to day.  Time will tell what develops.  Hoping early next weekend and next week around the 22 produce big.

I don't know why you guys believed the GFS at 240-384 hrs. lol. Secondly, most of said and still say expect wild swings in the models until 84-96 hrs with this type of pattern in the atm with the SSW, xt RTW's, MJO and CCKW all in action. Third, several people have been saying including you that you didn't expect things to get rolling til after 23-24th. The models are and have been like a pregnant woman's mood swings. Funny watching everyone go from joy thursday night to bummed on friday to joy yesterday to bummed today and back to joy tomorrow. Until the model runs Jan 19-20 frame I'm not going to put much stock into the model mood swings in regards to the last week of Jan.

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Where did all the talk of wall to wall -NAO come from, I thought that was from the ensembles, but maybe that was also lost in the quoting.

The main feature has been EPO whch has been rock solid in guidance and for me the thing über alles that gives me hope. My favorite winter is the reason why.

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ensembles have been pretty good yeah.

 

thing is - the op runs haven't even bad that bad given the time frame we are discussing. the euro only goes to 10 days...we are still 5+ from Friday...it's been very stable with the idea of a nice arctic push south on friday since late last week. of course the strength varies from run to run, but overall...it's been "ok" with this particular feature. 

 

considering the nuances in the flow that can mess up op runs, especially as we get out past 120 hours or so, they've been fine. 

 

I think particularly the GFS ENS have consistently overestimated the cold in the 5 day lead period by about a factor of 2.   We'll see this week how it plays out, but I'll be curious to see if the -12/-14c air makes it into CNE/SNE Wednesday as the GEFS had a day or two ago. 

 

The GEFS are running too cold, the EURO Ens are generally warmer each run for a given time in the long range, and each run the Euro gets a little warmer.  Let's use the 228/240 timeframe for this run of the Euro vs last nights GFS/Euro as a comparison (when the euro ens come out...maybe I'll be wrong on this today)

 

That's all I'm saying.  Right or wrong, we'll know in a week or so.

 

I was saying 2 weeks ago this changed around the 18th and a few days ago we'd have the threat around the 22nd ish.  I am just not thinking this is a lock for an extended 94 esque onslaught.  I hope you guys are right that believe this is the case (speaking in general).  It only takes one big storm to make us all happy.

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It's rare to ever get an airmass as cold as the Euro and GFS were spitting out a few days ago. The current 12z EC still has near -15C departures at H85 getting into N ME.

cold shots of mid -20s at 850 from upstate NY to NE is not rare, happens at least once a season.  Heck it even happened last year despite all the warmth.  On the other hand 5 degrees colder to -30 is rare.

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cold shots of mid -20s at 850 from upstate NY to NE is not rare, happens at least once a season.  Heck it even happened last year despite all the warmth.  On the other hand 5 degrees colder to -30 is rare.

What is your point? I never said mid -20s 850s were rare. I said what the models had depicted mid week was rare (-30s).

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Just for kicks I checked the 12z GEFS from 1/5...so 8 days ago.

 

It has 850 temps of -4C for BOS/ORH and about -9C for BTV for 12z Wednesday. The 12z Euro forecast from today has -10C 850 temps for BTV and about -6C 850 temps for ORH/BOS.

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Just for kicks I checked the 12z GEFS from 1/5...so 8 days ago.

 

It has 850 temps of -4C for BOS/ORH and about -9C for BTV for 12z Wednesday. The 12z Euro forecast from today has -10C 850 temps for BTV and about -6C 850 temps for ORH/BOS.

 

 

Euro ensembles from the same day were about 2 to 3C warmer than the GEFS. Both will end up being too warm for the 2nd half of this week.

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I don't know why you guys believed the GFS at 240-384 hrs. lol. Secondly, most of said and still say expect wild swings in the models until 84-96 hrs with this type of pattern in the atm with the SSW, xt RTW's, MJO and CCKW all in action. Third, several people have been saying including you that you didn't expect things to get rolling til after 23-24th. The models are and have been like a pregnant woman's mood swings. Funny watching everyone go from joy thursday night to bummed on friday to joy yesterday to bummed today and back to joy tomorrow. Until the model runs Jan 19-20 frame I'm not going to put much stock into the model mood swings in regards to the last week of Jan.

 

 

For me it's more or less an attempt at bias correcting of the models as we step through the days to see if there's potential biases still existing in the long term.   I think it's been pretty clear that the GEFS is indeed running too cold (speaking across the board not IMBY), and even the Euro ENS has been favoring cold in the longer range and gradually backed off.  JMHO, we'll see in the days ahead.  The trend in general over the course of many runs has been for the GEFS to run cold, the EURO ENS to be not quite as cold, and the two gradually mild up as we get closer. Will it really matter if it's -15 vs -30 in the long term, not really, but it beats discussing whether this is a torch or not.

 

:)

 

What's tough....I think I was about as specific as possible with dates even 2 weeks ago which is going to turn out to be pretty good.  The change is coming, the differences are in how extreme the various people here think the change is going to be.

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Euro ensembles from the same day were about 2 to 3C warmer than the GEFS. Both will end up being too warm for the 2nd half of this week.

 

And the 120 hour forecast for the 16th had -10/-14 8h temps into NW MA (or close).   I'm personally much more interested in the 4-7 day verifications as we approach this change.

 

Not terrible by any means, but over the course of 2 days the ridge is stronger, more amplification of the low to our west, and it's not nearly as cold over SNE.

 

 

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post-3232-0-91059400-1358106155_thumb.gi

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ensembles have been pretty good yeah.

thing is - the op runs haven't even bad that bad given the time frame we are discussing. the euro only goes to 10 days...we are still 5+ from Friday...it's been very stable with the idea of a nice arctic push south on friday since late last week. of course the strength varies from run to run, but overall...it's been "ok" with this particular feature.

considering the nuances in the flow that can mess up op runs, especially as we get out past 120 hours or so, they've been fine.

I think particularly the GFS ENS have consistently overestimated the cold in the 5 day lead period by about a factor of 2. We'll see this week how it plays out, but I'll be curious to see if the -12/-14c air makes it into CNE/SNE Wednesday as the GEFS had a day or two ago.

The GEFS are running too cold, the EURO Ens are generally warmer each run for a given time in the long range, and each run the Euro gets a little warmer. Let's use the 228/240 timeframe for this run of the Euro vs last nights GFS/Euro as a comparison (when the euro ens come out...maybe I'll be wrong on this today)

That's all I'm saying. Right or wrong, we'll know in a week or so.

I was saying 2 weeks ago this changed around the 18th and a few days ago we'd have the threat around the 22nd ish. I am just not thinking this is a lock for an extended 94 esque onslaught. I hope you guys are right that believe this is the case (speaking in general). It only takes one big storm to make us all happy.

I hear ya...Did anyone say anything was locked though?

Also - perhaps part of the issue here is people interpreting model discussion as a forecast. Saying a model has "x,y and z" and not following that up by saying it's wrong doesn't mean (for me at least) I necessarily think it's right. I rarely ever make strong statements like that.

As for those day 8-10 ens charts, when I say stable I'm implying general 5h features - not 850 temps. I don't look at those very often...at least not with any high degree of specificity. I'm sure they do change run to run.

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I hear ya...Did anyone say anything was locked though?

Also - perhaps part of the issue here is people interpreting model discussion as a forecast. Saying a model has "x,y and z" and not following that up by saying it's wrong doesn't mean (for me at least) I necessarily think it's right. I rarely ever make strong statements like that.

As for those day 8-10 ens charts, when I say stable I'm implying general 5h features - not 850 temps. I don't look at those very often...at least not with any high degree of specificity. I'm sure they do change run to run.

 

Phil I always understand what you're saying, Will, Scott etc.  I hope it's likewise...often it's implied by the time of day as to what we're referencing without having to put all the disclaimers in.

 

I don't want you to think I'm putting words in your mouth, I fully get that you're discussing possibilities, particular runs etc.

 

And like you said no doubt some good times ahead...this is getting lost in the technicalities of the discussions I think! 

 

 

Will, one point on my comparison.  I try to eliminate time periods that showed massive change.  Obviously if one run has a monster cutter or low offshore and the other doesn't...the temp comparison is kind of meaningless as the fundamentals have greatly changed.  In the case of the above it's a relatively similar pattern with the difference being more amplification of the system in the MN area, and a slightly stronger ridge.  So, I think it's useful from a comparison sake.

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Look at how much colder the airmass in Canada has trended from the 5 day forecast to the 3 day forecast.

 

 

Right which is great news in 7 or so days as it dumps down...unless of course that too is a potential bias.  I didn't store the images back long enough to see if this current shot coming this weekend was over-forecast in terms of cold in Canada 3-4 days ago.  So...it beats me.

 

 

I'm curious to see if the reason this shot this weekend was muted somewhat is because we're now seeing a more robust second shot, or is it because we're going to see a back down process in the models as we get these cold shots inside of the 5 day range.   That's all, curiosity more than anything.

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