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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

why consistently come to this forum and post if you don't like what we have to say? 

 

and, euro has arctic fropa on thursday. 

 

 

I don't understand why even what he said is a problem though Phil.  I mean he's essentially right, wrong in a few spots.   We have had a series of brutal arctic outbreaks in the 10-12 day range gradually vanish or tick down.  This one hasn't bled away entirely though like the earlier ones, but we've gone from those brutal temps down into NYC to the more MEH, seasonable to slightly below stuff -8-12c 8h across SNE with an initial very brief surge of the worst south of the northern 3 states.  If we look west this run (and some of the others) have swung wildly sometimes as much as 10 or 12c in a 12 hour run.  That's why I have a hard time with any high confidence in establishing a long term stormy/snowy pattern.  The OP GFS finally is now showing a positive NAO (per the raleighwx charts) following the GGEM/EC/ENS.

 

That said it's vastly better than what we've had for 10 days.

 

It's the tendency to extremes here that's the oddity.  On one hand we have the people constantly thinking the worst cold outbreaks are coming and the worst torches, and then those that are surprised when neither happens.  None of the extremes have worked out in New England for most of the winter.  Everything ends up muted. 

 

Anyway, as soon as the GFS jumped on the weekend NNE clipper bus the Euro got off.  Nice cold shot Friday, moderates over the weekend but keeps us at least "cold".  Epic perhaps not, but we didn't want -30 air driven deep anyway for real snow chances most of the time.

 

We're still seeing huge changes day to day.  Time will tell what develops.  Hoping early next weekend and next week around the 22 produce big.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I don't understand why even what he said is a problem though Phil.  I mean he's essentially right, wrong in a few spots.   We have had a series of brutal arctic outbreaks in the 10-12 day range gradually vanish or tick down.  This one hasn't bled away entirely though like the earlier ones, but we've gone from those brutal temps down into NYC to the more MEH, seasonable to slightly below stuff -8-12c 8h across SNE with an initial very brief surge of the worst south of the northern 3 states.  If we look west this run (and some of the others) have swung wildly sometimes as much as 10 or 12c in a 12 hour run.  That's why I have a hard time with any high confidence in establishing a long term stormy/snowy pattern.  The OP GFS finally is now showing a positive NAO (per the raleighwx charts) following the GGEM/EC/ENS.

 

That said it's vastly better than what we've had for 10 days.

 

It's the tendency to extremes here that's the oddity.  On one hand we have the people constantly thinking the worst cold outbreaks are coming and the worst torches, and then those that are surprised when neither happens.  None of the extremes have worked out in New England for most of the winter.  Everything ends up muted. 

 

Anyway, as soon as the GFS jumped on the weekend NNE clipper bus the Euro got off.  Nice cold shot Friday, moderates over the weekend but keeps us at least "cold".  Epic perhaps not, but we didn't want -30 air driven deep anyway for real snow chances most of the time.

 

We're still seeing huge changes day to day.  Time will tell what develops.  Hoping early next weekend and next week around the 22 produce big.

Re bold. That's a ridiculous statement. And wrong. Ensembles have been pretty stable for several days now.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Saki, the only major changes to be honest were the extended op progs. The ensembles for the most part were stable. Yes the cold won't be like it was progged 5 days ago, but that's because the PV recharges and wobbles south next week. The ensembles also were never as cold of the op...and that is likely not because they were smoothed out.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Call me weenie, call me crazy, double bun me all you like but if that PV drops in after a bunch of little snow events and a biggie thrown in, we potentially and a big if, be in some historical months territory. No need to hype but Ens have hit on this day after day. At some point or another that PV wobbles down at a 5 height where only in historical months has it been. Lots of ifs but just throwing it out there. A Jerry special 94-60=34

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Re bold. That's a ridiculous statement. And wrong. Ensembles have been pretty stable for several days now.

ensembles have been pretty good yeah.

 

thing is - the op runs haven't even bad that bad given the time frame we are discussing. the euro only goes to 10 days...we are still 5+ from Friday...it's been very stable with the idea of a nice arctic push south on friday since late last week. of course the strength varies from run to run, but overall...it's been "ok" with this particular feature. 

 

considering the nuances in the flow that can mess up op runs, especially as we get out past 120 hours or so, they've been fine. 

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