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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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A few days ago the Euro and GFS had the arctic flood gates open by Thursday of this week with -30 850s over NNE.  Now the cold keeps getting pushed back.  We have all seen this before and it’s not a good trend.  The -NAO forecasted by the EURO and GFS last week is also gone and now the EURO shows a pretty substantial +NAO.  The PNA remains a wildcard but it’s been negative most of the winter and those who think it’s going to do a 180 and turn strong positive for weeks on end are going to be wrong.  I am not seeing this great 1994 pattern at all.  Its not worth looking at any model or ensemble past day 10 as the forecast verification scores are dreadful.  I see nothing worth watching over the next 10 days during the heart of the winter, that is an awful pattern.

why consistently come to this forum and post if you don't like what we have to say? 

 

and, euro has arctic fropa on thursday. 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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There's no doubt that the pattern will resemble 1994 for a time...whether we get the snow events is another question, but its very unlikely to me that we don't have that setup for a while.

 

 

Just not sold on something like that right now. That was an epic pattern.

 

 

It resembles it for sure, but resembling and final outcomes can be two very large differences. I don't think anyone disagrees that it resembles some of our great patterns...I just see some differences.

 

 

Maybe I'm just being too realistic. It's certainly exponentially better than anything since Jan 2011 and will offer the snow chances for sure.

 

 

I'm with you on this one.

 

 

Stil curious about the early part of next weekend.  All models at one time or another have had a system in the 19th area along with the storm for next week.  Be great to kick it off right.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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why consistently come to this forum and post if you don't like what we have to say? 

 

and, euro has arctic fropa on thursday. 

It went from -30 air in NNE to barley the -20 line on the us / canada border.  That core of the cold is over 500 miles more north than where it had it on Friday.  -20 in NNE is basically normal this time of year.

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dendrite

dendrite

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It went from -30 air in NNE to barley the -20 line on the us / canada border.  That core of the cold is over 500 miles more north than where it had it on Friday.  -20 in NNE is basically normal this time of year.

It's rare to ever get an airmass as cold as the Euro and GFS were spitting out a few days ago. The current 12z EC still has near -15C departures at H85 getting into N ME.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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93-94 was my last winter pre-internet. I was mainly still stuck with TWC stuff so I didn't understand the whole processes involved. 94-95 only had one good Noreaster, but 95-96 then we had the net and it was a whole new world.

I had this convo with Jerry last night. I was at my second go round at URI, my senior year. Lucky enough to be a part of the original .edu Internet with 1200 bps. First time I read an AFD online it was heaven. Where I learned all about Wes Junker. I told Jerry NGM nailed 94. The first Sat pic I. ever saw online was 1993 superstorm. Took one hour to download, believe me to me it was like landing on the moon.
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