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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

There's no doubt that the pattern will resemble 1994 for a time...whether we get the snow events is another question, but its very unlikely to me that we don't have that setup for a while.

Thank you for the voice of sanity! Weenies of course will expect a carbon copy if the pattern resembles it and will cry bust if BOS doesn't get 40+ in the next 30 days...lol.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Thank you for the voice of sanity! Weenies of course will expect a carbon copy if the pattern resembles it and will cry bust if BOS doesn't get 40+ in the next 30 days...lol.

 

It resembles it for sure, but resembling and final outcomes can be two very large differences. I don't think anyone disagrees that it resembles some of our great patterns...I just see some differences.

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weathafella

weathafella

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It resembles it for sure, but resembling and final outcomes can be two very large differences. I don't think anyone disagrees that it resembles some of our great patterns...I just see some differences.

Isn't your first sentence exactly what I said in the post you quoted? There are always differences and those small nuances can have influences on the outcome good or bad...don't think anyone says otherwise. But undeniably this is the best medium and long range look in years.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Isn't your first sentence exactly what I said in the post you quoted? There are always differences and those small nuances can have influences on the outcome good or bad...don't think anyone says otherwise. But undeniably this is the best medium and long range look in years.

 

I misunderstood you then...I thought you meant some of us weren't agreeing that it resembles that.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
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A few days ago the Euro and GFS had the arctic flood gates open by Thursday of this week with -30 850s over NNE.  Now the cold keeps getting pushed back.  We have all seen this before and it’s not a good trend.  The -NAO forecasted by the EURO and GFS last week is also gone and now the EURO shows a pretty substantial +NAO.  The PNA remains a wildcard but it’s been negative most of the winter and those who think it’s going to do a 180 and turn strong positive for weeks on end are going to be wrong.  I am not seeing this great 1994 pattern at all.  Its not worth looking at any model or ensemble past day 10 as the forecast verification scores are dreadful.  I see nothing worth watching over the next 10 days during the heart of the winter, that is an awful pattern.

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educate

educate

Posted
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Maybe I'm just being too realistic. It's certainly exponentially better than anything since Jan 2011 and will offer the snow chances for sure.

very true. for me, the trigger has always been to get the cold dome migating to a position where it will seek and find the east coast. that trend appears to be in place. in time, the gate opens and the fun starts. but when that event definitively takes place....as the Bard said....'that's the rub."

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Logan11

Logan11

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1994 had mostly positive NAO ...fwiw.

A few days ago the Euro and GFS had the arctic flood gates open by Thursday of this week with -30 850s over NNE.  Now the cold keeps getting pushed back.  We have all seen this before and it’s not a good trend.  The -NAO forecasted by the EURO and GFS last week is also gone and now the EURO shows a pretty substantial +NAO.  The PNA remains a wildcard but it’s been negative most of the winter and those who think it’s going to do a 180 and turn strong positive for weeks on end are going to be wrong.  I am not seeing this great 1994 pattern at all.  Its not worth looking at any model or ensemble past day 10 as the forecast verification scores are dreadful.  I see nothing worth watching over the next 10 days during the heart of the winter, that is an awful pattern.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

 

Classic movie, Jerry--the late great Clevon Little.

 

Just checked the stake in the open field--5" remains.  Temps still in the upper 30's here.  Looks like there are a couple spots right around here holding there, but I suspect I'm going to lose it all before the cold returns.

 

37.8/37

 

edit:  mesomap fixed.

post-462-0-24195900-1358100521_thumb.jpg

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