Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[bobbutts]

Saki, you need to just put Kev on ignore and move on dude.

There is no Kevin on ignore.  Every single post he makes gets several responses.

[weathafella]

That's the signal! Buf rain and. 40 while bos 19 and snow...

[OSUmetstud]

lake is up 3 degrees since the beginning of the month..I'm not sure I've seen that before in January.

[OSUmetstud]

That's the signal! Buf rain and. 40 while bos 19 and snow...

 

lol sounds like one of those garbage gradient patterns.

[educate]

Well now we're on the doorstep and by the weekend at least we'll be in the vestibule.

At the risk of laying down a Tip-length post....have to get this off my chest....beyond 3-4 days most events can not be predicted with any solid confidence in their accuracy. on the other hand, with a particular trend, we at least have a chance. The models involved are no more than an approximation of the physics of the fluid dynamics that is taking place overhead. now these approximations are themselves flawed in that they don't even contain all the variables involved....and heat, which is a proxy for the development phase is still a real puzzle to the programmers of the models. in addition the initial conditions being fed the models are incomplete(and woefully so as pertains to what is going on over the ocean). For those old enough to remember when chaos theory was in vogue, it was actually co-developed by an MIT meteo(Lorenz) who understood that the atmosphere was just too chaotic and more data and better models would not ever do the trick entirely. 

now as to the current state....at least the coldest air in a long time is moving to a position where it can do the most damage to the CONUS. also, it naturally wants to move into the US over time....the gate simply need to be opened and in it comes. not at all surprising that the models progged the cold air coming sooner and harder as an opening of the gate would not take much and an inaccuracy in the model(s) incorrectly forecast that gate opening. these events will continue to be progged and eventually it will occur. it would be more anomalous if it didn't. unfortunately....that is the best we can do.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Anyone know what the first part of Jan 1978 was like?

[Sugarloaf1989]

lake is up 3 degrees since the beginning of the month..I'm not sure I've seen that before in January.

 

 

Isn't that better for areas away from the shore when Lake Effect conditions return?

 

Currently it's 42F here with about 50% of the snowcover gone since this time yesterday.

[dryslot]

Anyone know what the first part of Jan 1978 was like?

 

 

I know Feb was cold that year as well snow with the Blizz of 78

[OSUmetstud]

Isn't that better for areas away from the shore when Lake Effect conditions return?

 

Currently it's 42F here with about 50% of the snowcover gone since this time yesterday.

 

there's no risk of mixing even at the shore for a typical january les event. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

does eduggs have 2 accounts?

[mahk_webstah]

At the risk of laying down a Tip-length post....have to get this off my chest....beyond 3-4 days most events can not be predicted with any solid confidence in their accuracy. on the other hand, with a particular trend, we at least have a chance. The models involved are no more than an approximation of the physics of the fluid dynamics that is taking place overhead. now these approximations are themselves flawed in that they don't even contain all the variables involved....and heat, which is a proxy for the development phase is still a real puzzle to the programmers of the models. in addition the initial conditions being fed the models are incomplete(and woefully so as pertains to what is going on over the ocean). For those old enough to remember when chaos theory was in vogue, it was actually co-developed by an MIT meteo(Lorenz) who understood that the atmosphere was just too chaotic and more data and better models would not ever do the trick entirely. 

now as to the current state....at least the coldest air in a long time is moving to a position where it can do the most damage to the CONUS. also, it naturally wants to move into the US over time....the gate simply need to be opened and in it comes. not at all surprising that the models progged the cold air coming sooner and harder as an opening of the gate would not take much and an inaccuracy in the model(s) incorrectly forecast that gate opening. these events will continue to be progged and eventually it will occur. it would be more anomalous if it didn't. unfortunately....that is the best we can do.

You changed your screen name slightly.

 

Do you think that most people in here don't understand what you've just said?

 

"accuracy"....you have to define what you mean.  Is accuracy an exact forecast of qpf and temp and sky cover?  Or would it be accurate to say that in 4 days we will have a light to moderate snowstorm with temperatures in the 20s?

[weathafella]

Educate, educate, dance to the music...

[Ginx snewx]

64/54 right now.  Even ginx would have to agree that's a hardcore torch!

I have noticed over the years how torch prone Buffalo is. That must be a horrid feeling when primaries suddenly die and energy transfer happens off the Jersey coast and nail NE while Buffalo sits in the low 30 s with mangled melting flakes.

[educate]

does eduggs have 2 accounts?

i plead not guilty. i was more active toward the end of the easternwx run and ray and i went back and forth many times because we are neighbors geographically.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm surprised to still see a solid 5-6" snow pack this morning. The overnight fog didn't do quite as much damage as I thought it would. But this afternoon and overnight tonight should be pretty devastating.

 

Its tolerable though with such an awesome pattern progged.

 

The analogs showing up are just a weenies dream aorund here. 1994 four times show up between the 8 and 11 day progs...even 1995 shows up, but its the only good part of that winter...first week of Feb...1/21/61 shows up....Late Jan 2003 shows up. Jan 2009 shows up. Just about every single pattenr produced prolific snowfall at some point. Some within just a day or or two of the analog date, some within a week or 10 days.

[Ginx snewx]

Educate, educate, dance to the music...

Lol

[Sugarloaf1989]

there's no risk of mixing even at the shore for a typical january les event. 

 

 

Fair enough, but wouldn't warmer lake water's produce more snow when cold air returns?

[dendrite]

I'm surprised to still see a solid 5-6" snow pack this morning. The overnight fog didn't do quite as much damage as I thought it would. But this afternoon and overnight tonight should be pretty devastating.

 

Its tolerable though with such an awesome pattern progged.

 

The analogs showing up are just a weenies dream aorund here. 1994 four times show up between the 8 and 11 day progs...even 1995 shows up, but its the only good part of that winter...first week of Feb...1/21/61 shows up....Late Jan 2003 shows up. Jan 2009 shows up. Just about every single pattenr produced prolific snowfall at some point. Some within just a day or or two of the analog date, some within a week or 10 days.

The 12z NAM really is stubborn with the in-situ CAD over the next 12-18hrs. It keeps much of the deep interior into the MU30s until fropa.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm surprised to still see a solid 5-6" snow pack this morning. The overnight fog didn't do quite as much damage as I thought it would. But this afternoon and overnight tonight should be pretty devastating.

 

Its tolerable though with such an awesome pattern progged.

 

The analogs showing up are just a weenies dream aorund here. 1994 four times show up between the 8 and 11 day progs...even 1995 shows up, but its the only good part of that winter...first week of Feb...1/21/61 shows up....Late Jan 2003 shows up. Jan 2009 shows up. Just about every single pattenr produced prolific snowfall at some point. Some within just a day or or two of the analog date, some within a week or 10 days.

Wish everyone agreed with you instead of what we've seen this morning. for the most part all on board

[Ginx snewx]

I'm surprised to still see a solid 5-6" snow pack this morning. The overnight fog didn't do quite as much damage as I thought it would. But this afternoon and overnight tonight should be pretty devastating.

Its tolerable though with such an awesome pattern progged.

The analogs showing up are just a weenies dream aorund here. 1994 four times show up between the 8 and 11 day progs...even 1995 shows up, but its the only good part of that winter...first week of Feb...1/21/61 shows up....Late Jan 2003 shows up. Jan 2009 shows up. Just about every single pattenr produced prolific snowfall at some point. Some within just a day or or two of the analog date, some within a week or 10 days.

I need Kev to take a pic Mon AM. Can not wait for Messenger to post how many inches of analogs he has shoveled. I made a great animated GIF of all the analog dates,,but they do not work here anymore, classic I mean classic loading pattern. Your constant feature is there everytime. If we miss a big storm in the next three weeks it's pure crap luck and I will go back and join Scooter on the dark side.

[CoastalWx]

Wish everyone agreed with you instead of what we've seen this morning. for the most part all on board

 

I don't think anyone said otherwise...maybe LL.

[Mr Torchey]

I don't think anyone said otherwise...maybe LL.

What? I was honking the horn loudest the last 4 days, I just said I was bummed out to see snow totally dissapear from modeling this week, that was all.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Saki, you need to just put Kev on ignore and move on dude.

 

Quotes that are quoted by others aren't filtered by the system.   So when the mets unleash a barrage like this morning I see it, and it's all in jest anyway.  I'm fully prepared for Tuesdays snow event thanks to this thread.

 

 

Day 8 of the above normal temps Steve with at least 3, maybe 5 more depending on nighttime temps and how well this first cold shot materializes.  You keep calling people whiners and Debbies when they tried to discuss the early/mid January pattern or posted departures, but you've been doubting warmups all along and that failed.  This not epic because daytime highs are meager, but it's a 10+ day period with significant positive departures regionwide. 

 

If someone constantly calls for cold with analogs to support it, eventually they're going to be right in any near normal winter, JMHO.

 

I don't buy the GEFS super cold (yet..maybe in a few days, nor do I buy this is 1994)  I have been saying all along the first 2 weeks of January were problematic and after the 18th things would get better.  There's a great storm threat around the 22nd/23rd, and I hope that storm drives down and helps lock in the cold.  But, I also look at some of the other data and wonder if that's going to be the case.

[Mr Torchey]

Nam brings it back down here! weenie yep weenie, a dusting or even flurries is a victory!

[Mr Torchey]

Quotes that are quoted by others aren't filtered by the system.   So when the mets unleash a barrage like this morning I see it, and it's all in jest anyway.  I'm fully prepared for Tuesdays snow event thanks to this thread.

 

 

Day 8 of the above normal temps Steve with at least 3, maybe 5 more depending on nighttime temps and how well this first cold shot materializes.  You keep calling people whiners and Debbies when they tried to discuss the early/mid January pattern or posted departures, but you've been doubting warmups all along and that failed. 

 

If you constantly call for cold with analogs to support it, eventually you're going to be right. 

Lets be honest lol, outside of a couple days to start the month the entire winter has been a torch I mean December was well above normal lol, in some cases around the northeast record breaking.  However, there was snow in December and obviously even in the warmest winter torch you can always get snow, and thats all that matters and all that anyone cares about, so the idea of a thaw outside the mountains is kind of laughable to be honest, especially when you look at the numbers and facts.

 

Snow cures all.

[Mr Torchey]

This cool up has gone exactly as planned, couple more double digit days and then more meh stuff next week, so far.........

 

bos +5 +7 +5 +8 +8 +8 +12 +7 +12

bdl  +6 +4 +7 +2 +6 +6 +10 +3 +11

pvd +2 +4 +4 +5 +6 +12 +5 +13

 

orh +3 +7 +7 +4 +8 +11 +13 +8 +14

[Logan11]

We hovered around 31-33 all night so nothing much was going to melt despite the fog.  Still socked in and 36 here now.

 

But western NY is in late May now..  lots of upper 60's!

 

Got to figure some of that has to mix down, even if it's behind the front.

I'm surprised to still see a solid 5-6" snow pack this morning. The overnight fog didn't do quite as much damage as I thought it would. But this afternoon and overnight tonight should be pretty devastating.

 

Its tolerable though with such an awesome pattern progged.

 

The analogs showing up are just a weenies dream aorund here. 1994 four times show up between the 8 and 11 day progs...even 1995 shows up, but its the only good part of that winter...first week of Feb...1/21/61 shows up....Late Jan 2003 shows up. Jan 2009 shows up. Just about every single pattenr produced prolific snowfall at some point. Some within just a day or or two of the analog date, some within a week or 10 days.

[dendrite]

This cool up has gone exactly as planned, couple more double digit days and then more meh stuff next week, so far.........

 

bos +5 +7 +5 +8 +8 +8 +12 +7 +12

bdl  +6 +4 +7 +2 +6 +6 +10 +3 +11

pvd +2 +4 +4 +5 +6 +12 +5 +13

 

orh +3 +7 +7 +4 +8 +11 +13 +8 +14

Yeah...it's been warm overall for awhile. As weather lovers, this has been an amazing and tremendous stretch. It doesn't get much better than watching dense fog slowly eat away snow with 30s/30s or 40s/40s day after day. This is the extreme weather we live to experience. I had to pinch myself this morning to make sure it was all real.

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah...it's been warm overall for awhile. As weather lovers, this has been an amazing and tremendous stretch. It doesn't get much better than watching dense fog slowly eat away snow with 30s/30s or 40s/40s day after day. This is the extreme weather we live to experience. I had to pinch myself this morning to make sure it was all real.

Why the sarcasm? This weather sucks monkey ****, and nobody is saying anything different, but its still weather.

[Ginx snewx]

Quotes that are quoted by others aren't filtered by the system.   So when the mets unleash a barrage like this morning I see it, and it's all in jest anyway.  I'm fully prepared for Tuesdays snow event thanks to this thread.

 

 

Day 8 of the above normal temps Steve with at least 3, maybe 5 more depending on nighttime temps and how well this first cold shot materializes.  You keep calling people whiners and Debbies when they tried to discuss the early/mid January pattern or posted departures, but you've been doubting warmups all along and that failed.  This not epic because daytime highs are meager, but it's a 10+ day period with significant positive departures regionwide. 

 

If someone constantly calls for cold with analogs to support it, eventually they're going to be right in any near normal winter, JMHO.

 

I don't buy the GEFS super cold (yet..maybe in a few days, nor do I buy this is 1994)  I have been saying all along the first 2 weeks of January were problematic and after the 18th things would get better.  There's a great storm threat around the 22nd/23rd, and I hope that storm drives down and helps lock in the cold.  But, I also look at some of the other data and wonder if that's going to be the case.

Lol the pattern has obviously got to you.