Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[HoarfrostHubb]

Don't be so.down, LL. Much goodness incoming. Things could be much worse.

[Mr Torchey]

Don't be so.down, LL. Much goodness incoming. Things could be much worse.

Life sure, weather wise not really sure, sitting here drinking coffee looking at fog temps in the 40s for lows in the heart of winter, green grass and forsythia blooming.......yay:)

[CoastalWx]

Don't be so.down, LL. Much goodness incoming. Things could be much worse.

 

It's rock bottom here.

[Bostonseminole]

Cold is coming after 1/18, step down next week, maybe some snow chances, why all the sad faces?

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

[Mr Torchey]

The good news is that Tip should make his annual post how its that time when you can sit in your car with windows up and bake due to sun angle no matter what the temp outside.

[CoastalWx]

Phil is right though, this week was not supposed to be the week winter returns by any means. Hopefully after this weekend we can finally get some chances...but nothing is given.

[CT Rain]

Phil is right though, this week was not supposed to be the week winter returns by any means. Hopefully after this weekend we can finally get some chances...but nothing is given.

 

Yeah not sure what the noose-tying is for. The warm-up and cool down pattern evolution has been pretty well modeled IMO. Stay the course. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah not sure what the noose-tying is for. The warm-up and cool down pattern evolution has been pretty well modeled IMO. Stay the course. 

 

Probably because some weenies believed an arctic front would blast through tomorrow, followed by 2-4" of snow.

[CT Rain]

Probably because some weenies believed an arctic front would blast through tomorrow, followed by 2-4" of snow.

 

They were probably listening to Kevin. 

[CoastalWx]

They were probably listening to Kevin. 

 

Boy the cold is going to really feel brutal when I go from 57 to 44 in the aftn.

[Mr Torchey]

Phil is right though, this week was not supposed to be the week winter returns by any means. Hopefully after this weekend we can finally get some chances...but nothing is given.

Absolutely, I was speaking soley about the chance of some light snow down this way mid week which all models had in some way shape or form, no matter how many flags were thrown still a bummer to see it slipping away.

[weathafella]

It's rock bottom here.

Euro ens d11-15 continue the theme similar to GEFS?

[CoastalWx]

Absolutely, I was speaking soley about the chance of some light snow down this way mid week which all models had in some way shape or form, no matter how many flags were thrown still a bummer to see it slipping away.

 

When models barely give you .05" do me a favor and just don't expect anything.

[weathafella]

Absolutely, I was speaking soley about the chance of some light snow down this way mid week which all models had in some way shape or form, no matter how many flags were thrown still a bummer to see it slipping away.

Not really. The qpf probably would have been tainted with the antecedent and still long distance to real deal cold,

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The op Euro is definitely the coldest... the Euro Ens mean is like -8c at 850 by 00z Saturday. If anything the trend has been more of a "glancing" blow of the cold in SNE so I could definitely see the milder solutions panning out. 

Yeah first shot IMO is just run of the mill cool down. It's glancing and like I said the last day or two I kind of expect it to be a -8 at 8h type of deal down here by go time + - 2 and I do see some chance mid weekend of a brief mild up at least aloft.

[Mr Torchey]

When models barely give you .05" do me a favor and just don't expect anything.

Yes Sir, sorry about that.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ens d11-15 continue the theme similar to GEFS?

 

The GEFS look better than the euro as the euro tries to go -PNA again. IMO the Pacific still has question marks for me, and why I'm not sold on an epic pattern. I should be clear in that I think we'll have snow chances...but I'm not comfortable going 1994. At this point, the pattern needs to prove it to me.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Where is my 2-4" of snow that I was promised this week?

With the other 50" of phantom snows called for since November?

If we only lived in the 7-10 day period this winter would have been historic so far.

[weathafella]

The GEFS look better than the euro as the euro tries to go -PNA again. IMO the Pacific still has question marks for me, and why I'm not sold on an epic pattern. I should be clear in that I think we'll have snow chances...but I'm not comfortable going 1994. At this point, the pattern needs to prove it to me.

That's a big shift from what we were hearing from 12z. Still a big ridge north of ak?

[Modfan]

Considering the novice I am, I am looking for some knowledge; with talk of the upcoming cold potential and we were talking 850 temps at -30C (I could be wrong), how does that translate to real temps?  

[educate]

Where is my 2-4" of snow that I was promised this week?

grrrr!

[Damage In Tolland]

Like I told yoi guys last night..Scooter has gone over the edge. He's not getting snow this week,, and he's overtired, so he takes it out on folks

[CoastalWx]

That's a big shift from what we were hearing from 12z. Still a big ridge north of ak?

 

Yeah and that's key. Very important to have that.

 

The models still shuffle around and the 12z run easily may come back...but the Pacific just raises a few questions. The overall look to the pattern is still very nice and the Canadian may be a nice compromise as it offers an in between solution of nice PNA but a weaker SE ridge than what the euro has.

[CoastalWx]

Like I told yoi guys last night..Scooter has gone over the edge. He's not getting snow this week,, and he's overtired, so he takes it out on folks

 

Well facts can hurt.

[mahk_webstah]

Too bad none of us are old enough to remember this.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281988%29003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

The reason I posted this article on  1899 is because that was a step down arctic outbreak, with several waves of arctic air.  It looks like we are getting that kind  of process instead of a one shot deal.  We ultimately I think do great in the step down, relax, step down patterns because we get the storms potentially on either end of the reload and step down.  Not that we would get 1899 but it will happen again someday

[CT Rain]

Well facts can hurt.

 

It's been a rough winter for Kevin's forecasts lol.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The GEFS look better than the euro as the euro tries to go -PNA again. IMO the Pacific still has question marks for me, and why I'm not sold on an epic pattern. I should be clear in that I think we'll have snow chances...but I'm not comfortable going 1994. At this point, the pattern needs to prove it to me.

Go with euro.

GEFS Implemetation

What the forecaster will notice

Winter cold bias increased, particularly over eastern North America in retrospective runs.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's been a rough winter for Kevin's forecasts lol.

I've had a great winter forecasting. I've nailed every snow event..And the return to winter on the 15th. 

 

It does appear likeI will have missed the wave this week.

[Bostonseminole]

Probably because some weenies believed an arctic front would blast through tomorrow, followed by 2-4" of snow.

1 weenie only..

[CT Rain]

I've had a great winter forecasting. I've nailed every snow event..And the return to winter on the 15th. 

 

It does appear likeI will have missed the wave this week.

 

Didn't you also only expect like 3 days above average with this mild-up? I think most on the forum know that with the exception of a late December underperformer it's been a tough couple months for you. We all have slumps... chin up... it'll get better!