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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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eh, here's my bigger event:

 

 

Yes I like that event a lot. It has a lot of similarities to a very fond event of mine in the teleconnection pattern. But no use in getting unreasonable weenie hopes up with going into further detail. Most people here are reasonable I will say though.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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blew me away, but you telling the pattern added a lot , classic weenie moment for me.great oracles you guys are.

 

Luckily I have looked at that pattern a lot....1956 was an epic comeback winter. So I at least knew what he was talking about even if I didn't live it like he did. But yeah, memory of a true snow eenies.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Luckily I have looked at that pattern a lot....1956 was an epic comeback winter. So I at least knew what he was talking about even if I didn't live it like he did. But yeah, memory of a true snow eenies.

That was a triple phaser right? I miss that triple phase web site with all the 5 h animations, the link is broken.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It's on the way. GEFS are pretty sick tonight...lol.

 

 

Dominant PV over SE Canada and Hudson Bay the whole run almost. Its amazing that the dominant PV is there...its literally been rotting over Asia for the better part of 6-7 winters. They have had record cold over there year after year in winter. Even 2010-2011 they got the brunt of the cold...we got all the snow, but not intense cold.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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Dominant PV over SE Canada and Hudson Bay the whole run almost. Its amazing that the dominant PV is there...its literally been rotting over Asia for the better part of 6-7 winters. They have had record cold over there year after year in winter. Even 2010-2011 they got the brunt of the cold...we got all the snow, but not intense cold.

All the guidance has damned cold for a good long stretch. About freaking time!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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All the guidance has damned cold for a good long stretch. About freaking time!

 

I don't want to get too far ahead....but I'm thinking there is going to be a monster swing in the departures for a good while....there might be a relaxation period or two...but the cold will easily destroy any relaxation in that time. It is the coldest looking prog on an ensemble mean I've seen in a long time for beyond D10. I've not seen it that cold on an ensemble mean since prob Jan 2005. But that was back in the days of ensembles just becoming a useful thing.

 

 

I've never seen -16C 850s over us for a 276 prog...even on the old GEFS when they were even more cold bias than they are now.

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weathafella

weathafella

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I don't want to get too far ahead....but I'm thinking there is going to be a monster swing in the departures for a good while....there might be a relaxation period or two...but the cold will easily destroy any relaxation in that time. It is the coldest looking prog on an ensemble mean I've seen in a long time for beyond D10. I've not seen it that cold on an ensemble mean since prob Jan 2005. But that was back in the days of ensembles just becoming a useful thing.

 

 

I've never seen -16C 850s over us for a 276 prog...even on the old GEFS when they were even more cold bias than they are now.

Who's the first weenie to b**ch? Lol

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Dominant PV over SE Canada and Hudson Bay the whole run almost. Its amazing that the dominant PV is there...its literally been rotting over Asia for the better part of 6-7 winters. They have had record cold over there year after year in winter. Even 2010-2011 they got the brunt of the cold...we got all the snow, but not intense cold.

 

Why did it move? 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Quick cold shot Friday into Saturday..by go time maybe -8 to -12c at 8h over SNE?  Clipper with moderation as the 0c line rides over/slightly north of SNE later Saturday into Sunday and then we wait for the clipper.

 

The note I posted last night on the GEFS noted cold bias (from NCEP) particularly in the northeast (from the notes about 9 months ago)....I'll take the Euro/ENS.  And I think through about the 21/22 period the Euro is going to prove to be too cold too.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, hoping the 22/23+ period is what produces the deep freeze.

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