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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Geezus cry me a friggin big river LOL. Dude they have been getting smoked. Add my two feet in two weeks in and he still is smoking climo. .before the highest climo period of the year.  

 

lol nice edit to that graphic.

 

I was thinking you meant 2 feet of snowfall over the next two weeks...not two feet of net gain to the snowpack.  If we gain two feet to the summit snowpack, its probably more like four feet of snowfall...especially in 0F January cold where the stuff has a 3% moisture content, lol.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Well...I've been up to Fraconia,NH and as far south as Uconn in the past few days...and up to about Plymouth NH area has the same or less snow then northern CT. I was in Tilton yesterday and it was pretty much the same snow pack as my house...6ish in protected areas but a lot of bare areas in torched areas. So yeah...I wouldn't be surprised if it was wiped out pretty far north.

 

Yeah today is the first real day I'm seeing some noticeable melting. 

 

Started the day with 10" at 4:30am and now as of 3:15pm down to 9".

 

42/36... definitely has some staying power though to only lose 1" today with temps in the low 40s and some sunshine.

 

 

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nzucker

nzucker

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Where is Tubes? EURO Cold will satiate him

 

This was an amazing 12z Euro run...has a light snow here at 72-78 hours early next week, then it drops a strong cold shot at 144 hours with 850s from -16C to -18C. That would bring highs in the low 20s here with nights in the single digits, especially if we have snow pack. The Day 9-10 shot is absolutely obscene with -25C 850s over NYC; it might be the first time Central Park hits 0F since January 1994, and my first time in Dobbs Ferry since January 2009. I am definitely starting to think that the arctic air is going to arrive at some point, whether it's later next week or towards the end of the month. The 12z ECM also has another shot of -30C air on the western end of Hudson Bay heading towards the Northeast with a huge -EPO/+PNA ridge. It looks as if we might see another arctic shot around Day 14, which the 12z GFS showed as well.

 

Since blocking came back in Winter 08-09, almost everyone in the Northern Hemisphere has seen an arctic outbreak except the NYC/SNE area. January 2009 and January 2011 had borderline arctic cold, but the way I see the arctic outbreaks is: Northern New England in Jan '09, Western Europe and the Southeast U.S. in Dec '10, Southern Plains of U.S. in Feb '11, Eastern Europe and Northern Africa in Feb '12, and China/Russia in Dec '12. It is beyond time for us to see single digit/low teens for highs and nights below 0F here in Dobbs Ferry. 

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nzucker

nzucker

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I am actually surprised how much snow is still left still a solid snowpack but im sure it will be gone by tomorrow afternoon

 

Don't know about up there, but the torch has been a total failure down here in NYC metro so far. My forecast high from NWS was 54F; I hit 45.7F a couple hours ago and have since slid down to 43.9F with east winds and fog. Above average day for sure but a 10F temperature bust on projected temperatures. Amazing that the NWS would make that big of a mistake given that Euro has shown for days this wouldn't be a torch, but rather a manky/murky airmass. 

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