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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Scott - agreed.  I have been saying for days that the flow had too much gradient ... therefore, too compressed and this (as modeled) would muddle and damp out S/W mechanics - well, making for non-events.  

 

Much of the impetus in starting the Jan 20 -24th KU thread is based upon the relaxation you mention; which is there, and now (CPC and CDC) modeled robust rise in the PNA at just the right spatial-temporal interval.   That could deliver a western ridge push and a lowering of heights over the deep SE prior to any S/W in the flow ... and the geese would be in business.   

 

The operational GFS run at 12z hints at this pretty loudly - I think the threat is real, and may come into better focus, operationally.  Obviously we are 9+ days away.  

 

The 00z GGEM refuses to give up on threading the needle D5, heh -

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Scott - agreed.  I have been saying for days that the flow had too much gradient ... therefore, too compressed and this (as modeled) would muddle and damp out S/W mechanics - well, making for non-events.  

 

Much of the impetus in starting the Jan 20 -24th KU thread is based upon the relaxation you mention; which is there, and now (CPC and CDC) modeled robust rise in the PNA at just the right spatial-temporal interval.   That could deliver a western ridge push and a lowering of heights over the deep SE prior to any S/W in the flow ... and the geese would be in business.   

 

The operational GFS run at 12z hints at this pretty loudly - I think the threat is real, and may come into better focus, operationally.  Obviously we are 9+ days away.  

 

The 00z GGEM refuses to give up on threading the needle D5, heh -

 

12z GGEM gave up.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Kevin was a master salesman for this week. A lot of weenies bought it...lol. Heck, if it happens he can sell ice to Eskimos...

 

 

Lol...you got that right. We kept saying polar front...step down...maybe a shot at a modest snow event. Some apparently thought we would have -30C 850 temps and 2 feet of snow this week.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12z GGEM gave up.

 

Yeah... I didn't have much of an opinion on that one way or the other.  I just read CISCO's medium range discussion; he seems to see that is still in the play-book.  

 

I guess having a sliver of hope racing up the backside of the baroclinic wall during that time frame could just as easily take place without violating the theoretical design of this ennui - ha.  And it would be a nice reward for people's patience.     

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Check this out. A buddy of mine from grad school has this on his website. Shows how rare -30C at 850 is even for ALB

 

Ryan!   that's an awesome product - 

 

I like the warm end of that, too - the 21C is impenetrable.   Can formulate a standard deviation for any modeled scenario using that tool. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1-4 from the kfs on a 72 hour forecast translates to isolated dustings if my arithmetic is correct.

 

haha, you're mean - 

 

I gotta go Euro on that and keeping the region dry.  I think if there is any snow associated with any arctic boundary it may be more WINDEXy in nature...  

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