CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This is going to be one of those patterns where weenies probably complain for a week until the whole PV reshuffles after next weekend. It's not very favorable for snow as modeled until that reshuffle occurs....that hasn't changed. This next week to 9 days or so may favor NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah and I probably had more snow than anyone that season. This looks and has been nothing like it, JMHO. 7-15 on Euro ENS ,GFS ENS and GGEM ENS all mimic 94's upper pattern, transition week with snow chances, sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The post/MLK event....that's legit and let's hope it comes to fruition. We only need one big one to change things for the better and drag down the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This is going to be one of those patterns where weenies probably complain for a week until the whole PV reshuffles after next weekend. It's not very favorable for snow as modeled until that reshuffle occurs....that hasn't changed. This next week to 9 days or so may favor NNE. Wait two posts ago you said watch the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If anything, the next 8-9 days may favor NNE with these clippers IMHO. As we mentioned earlier, Keeping the pv north is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 ITs not as hard as some are making it out to be WRT arctic outbreaks....look at the EPO region on the OP GFS at D5...then look again at D9....you understand why it unleashes the hounds in the latter setup. Yeah it finally pokes a monster ridge into AK with a low moving east of us, bringing in the true arctic cold. QVectorman was also saying that it might be more the January 25-30 timeframe that produces the arctic airmass with -30C 850s in the CONUS. We sometimes have to go through a step-down for the cold to arrive, and that may be the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wait two posts ago you said watch the second wave. Yeah, watch it.....but it may just brush the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Well Nate, there's your arctic outbreak at Day 11 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 I am very very happy the pV is not sitting over us with so much confluence it meat grinds everything. I do not know what Nate wants but give me 28 degrees and snow. I'm good, happy happy happy all i ask for is this. call me a skeptic, call me a realist, i just don't see much snow on the horizon. 7 days, i'll be in a better frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Keep the -30C850s NW. Nobody wants that if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Mild to a threat Wed/Thursday, cool/cold with some moderation, then a bigger threat in the days after MLK before what should be a major outbreak of cold. We do need the post MLK storm to do its thing to really help everything along. Hard to believe we're talking ANOTHER 9-10 days for the real best stuff, but that looks probably and in reality is within the 18th +/- a few days that many were talking about anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah it finally pokes a monster ridge into AK with a low moving east of us, bringing in the true arctic cold. QVectorman was also saying that it might be more the January 25-30 timeframe that produces the arctic airmass with -30C 850s in the CONUS. We sometimes have to go through a step-down for the cold to arrive, and that may be the case here. I still think well get clipped next week by some arctic air, but that was never forecast to be very far south...hopefully epople remember that. Even when the crazy Euro run came out...we all said its unlikely that would verify, but some people want to cling to the coldest solution over a 7 days period and then yell bust when it doesn't happen. I think we'll have a couple snow threats in the next 8 days too, but who knows if they will pan out. The EPO has a lot of ensemble support for getting better beyond next 5 days...so I think there is pretty high confidence (at least for me) that we do eventually get some impressive arctic air into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 ITs not as hard as some are making it out to be WRT arctic outbreaks....look at the EPO region on the OP GFS at D5...then look again at D9....you understand why it unleashes the hounds in the latter setup. GFS brings it later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This whole week was very up in the air and never looked snowy. If we somehow grab a bit Tuesday and maybe some sort of clipper at the end of the week...then we are relatively lucky. Cold or not cold, it never looked snowy. Either the PV was too far south or too far north. That's why we harped on the ridging out west and how that can align for s/w's to amplify in the flow once that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah it finally pokes a monster ridge into AK with a low moving east of us, bringing in the true arctic cold. QVectorman was also saying that it might be more the January 25-30 timeframe that produces the arctic airmass with -30C 850s in the CONUS. We sometimes have to go through a step-down for the cold to arrive, and that may be the case here. Yes , I said it much earlier today, patience will pay off but if we can sneak in a couple of events either clippers or overrruners all the better before the big dog arrives. Its the day to day transistion days that will create toaster baths.As a wise Old Man Winter once said, Its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Well Nate, there's your arctic outbreak at Day 11 on the GFS That's what I'm talking about...brutal across the CONUS once the snowstorm departs. I am a bit discouraged right now but I do think January 20th to February 10th is setting up as an excellent period of winter. Down here, we only need one good month to get a lot of snow with our vulnerability to Nor'easters and our low averages. We saw how in February 2010 and January 2011 we could get 40-50" of snow in a month. Not saying that will happen again but we look to be on the verge of a major pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I guess I'm not going to miss anything by virtue of being in MD next weekend. B-O-R-I-N-G. 36.5/36, foggy, dripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I will also say this. I'm not sure if it is related to the tropics, but the overall trend in the Pacific is gradual improvement, based on the 12hr height differences I've seen over the last two days. While ensembles try to weaken the EPO..they have shown a tendency to try and keep a +PNA going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Almost all of Alaksa above freezing at 850mb by the end of the GFS. COOK EM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I will also say this. I'm not sure if it is related to the tropics, but the overall trend in the Pacific is gradual improvement, based on the 12hr height differences I've seen over the last two days. While ensembles try to weaken the EPO..they have shown a tendency to try and keep a +PNA going. Great news keep getting greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Kevin was a master salesman for this week. A lot of weenies bought it...lol. Heck, if it happens he can sell ice to Eskimos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Almost all of Alaksa above freezing at 850mb by the end of the GFS. COOK EM! I hope that doenst' coincide with Pete's annual trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I hope that doenst' coincide with Pete's annual trip. I hope it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Almost all of Alaksa above freezing at 850mb by the end of the GFS. COOK EM! And the funny thing is it will be 0F and "smoky" at the surface with the mondo inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Post MLK bomb unleashes the hounds all the way to the Big Easy. That's what we need, now let's hope it's a real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Kevin was a master salesman for this week. A lot of weenies bought it...lol. Heck, if it happens he can sell ice to Eskimos... yeah....and a stopped clock is right twice a day. as i believe you said jerry....bring the science to the arguments. otherwise, what are we doing here? and yeah....i know this is a banter thread....but still. and this comes from maybe the biggest weenie of all when it comes to mby, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Post MLK bomb unleashes the hounds all the way to the Big Easy. That's what we need, now let's hope it's a real deal. I'd temper the GFS op for sure, but colder air has support from all guidance at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I hope they end up in shorts playing hacky sack in AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Kevin was a master salesman for this week. A lot of weenies bought it...lol. Heck, if it happens he can sell ice to Eskimos...I would not discount the follow up wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I hope they end up in shorts playing hacky sack in AK I hope they end up in shorts playing hacky sack in AK I'm sure an inversion would keep a lot of places cold even with 850s >0C. Definitely a major torch over the northern latitudes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.