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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

You're going to hate this weather...delivering packages with -35F wind chills FTL

The truly bitter arctic cold is temporary,   at least for SNE.    We'll get a few shots before Spring arrives.

 I work inside, thankfully.    The commute to work is enough to worry about (for all),  esp.  when we start talking -10's through 20's.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Short on time today but want to thank you guys for the great discussion and glad to be a part of it. 

 

I thought I would add my thoughts for today, I don't expect these cold solutions to be consistent I think we will still see lots of inconsistency until the events....Here is a recap of Dec. 20 from 20 days ago with mention of shortwave for eastern US Jan 10-11, on Jan 5 I amend the 10-13th to be another warm up (instead of cold air) based on a more powerful GWO signal. Obviously every saw a peak in temps on Jan 9 and expecting another peak on sun 13th. With colder air arriving after that.  Everything still jives for the rest of the thoughts through the beginning of Feb. especially in regards to 850 Temp forecasts. Again I think we will see the GFS/Euro hold back the coldest air until after the 24th. Even though it's on the edge right now bringing it in on the 23rd.

 

post-3697-0-46319400-1357935251_thumb.jp

 

Posted 20 December 2012 - 03:49 AM

 
I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half.
 
Posted  5 January 2013 - 12:18 AM

I think the GFS is being a little too bullish on the cold air and too fast. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  

 

Again since I'm short on time today here are my thoughts from last night that still hold water today for myself at least.  

 

Posted Yesterday, 06:29 PM

Well the 12z Euro has -36C in Maine for 1/19 12z and 12z GFS has -36C in northern MN at 12z for 1/20. And those types of temps have been showing up from time to time on the runs. That's obviously not the 24-27 time frame but gives credence that the models believe it's physically possible to achieve those type of temps in the next couple weeks. Plus as I recall the GFS was indicating these types of 850 temps arriving for Jan 15-16 back a week ago which now has been pushed back to the 19th. I mentioned previously that I thought that the models last week were rushing the coldest air in too soon. I still think that and think we will see this coldest air delayed again by the models for another 4-5 days til the at least the 24th 

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

I'm definitely liking the potential for a long duration upslope and lake effect leftovers event along the spine of the Greens, Berkshires, and Taconics as this cold pattern takes hold. The Great Lakes are warm and open for business, so there should be plenty of moisture being advected toward the topography of western New England.

 

Best case scenario, this could be a bit like the 12/5-6/10 upslope event that left me with 9-10" of powder over two days and parts of the Greens with 2 feet +. A nice, deep layer of W to NW flow and CAA can mean some good stuff around here.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

The truly bitter arctic cold is temporary,   at least for SNE.    We'll get a few shots before Spring arrives.

 I work inside, thankfully.    The commute to work is enough to worry about (for all),  esp.  when we start talking -10's through 20's.

 

Yeah, I think you'll survive.  The Euro has that cold flying through and moderating somewhat.  It's still cold, but not ocean freezing weather.

 

I like a nice frozen brown grass look....days and days of brown grass.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Ahh, I figured it had some sort of program. It seems like it's had a good handle on this...so nice job putting it together.

Thanks! I have to give credit where credit is due though, and discussion from you, HM, Tip, Wes, MidwestWx, Mike Ventrice and everyone else here got me on to this.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Speaking of the GWO. Preliminary data says the +DAAM/DT is off:

 

 362 2013  1  7 -0.36  0.43 15 3.5    0.6  363 2013  1  8 -0.29  1.14 20 4.5    1.2  364 2013  1  9 -0.07  1.98 20 4.5    2.0  365 2013  1 10  0.17  1.60 20 4.5    1.6  366 2013  1 11  0.29  0.18 25 5.5    0.3
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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yeah I don't think that was ever in doubt.

I've only been glancing through it's hard at times to figure out who's saying what particularly with the quotes still messed up.

I was worried about an arctic front on Monday with potential windex type stuff. Doesn't look that exciting though now.

Nah there's never been an arctic front for early in the week. It's always been the same sort of slow ooze of cooler air mon-wed.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Nah there's never been an arctic front for early in the week. It's always been the same sort of slow ooze of cooler air mon-wed.

 

Looking at the grids couple of days above freezing, even when it drops back over the interior Mon-Wed it's just upper 20s.  Big departures will continue into Thursday it seems.

 

Well we know who's the culprit of that silly rumor. This is probably why many get confused. Misinformation.

 

Yeah the forum is still all messed up for me, quotes are often unassigned to a poster so it looks like it's coming from you guys when I now understand it wasn't.   I wonder when the upgrade will be complete.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Looking at the grids couple of days above freezing, even when it drops back over the interior Mon-Wed it's just upper 20s. Big departures will continue into Thursday it seems.

Yeah the forum is still all messed up for me, quotes are often unassigned to a poster so it looks like it's coming from you guys when I now understand it wasn't. I wonder when the upgrade will be complete.

yeah that screwed me up earlier with Grandpa
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

yeah that screwed me up earlier with Grandpa

 

On the iphone I don't see any association to the quote at all when logged out.  It's a mess.  When logged in on a windows 8 machine it doesn't associate the quotes when replying.  When logged out the quotes are totally unassociated to a poster, it looks like people are talking to themselves (which they may be if we don't get snow)

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