Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Typhoon Tip]

I tell you what ... if that GGEM solution from 00z and 12z manages to thread the needle like that (lower plausibility) that would make the following cold snap that much more interesting. 

[mahk_webstah]

I'd take it. The overall pattern keeps cold with maybe a clipper and a chance for something bigger with such a sharp ridge out west. This is the type of pattern where weenie s/w's may just appear in NW Canada heading SE within like 5 days.

exactly.  i would think this will produce whether it shows up on models right now or not.  I think we have to get the front through Sunday night and see how it all sets up thereafter.  I remember these sorts of set ups when I lived in Philly...it looked cold and dry, but then before we knew it, we got a storm.  Just about all the great storms down there at least were proceeded by strong arctic outbreaks.  I know it can be different up here.  Every once in a while we get cold overwhelming and dry but I don't think that is happening here - i hope!

[Mr Torchey]

I love that euro run.

Any ocean effect?

[CoastalWx]

exactly.  i would think this will produce whether it shows up on models right now or not.  I think we have to get the front through Sunday night and see how it all sets up thereafter.  I remember these sorts of set ups when I lived in Philly...it looked cold and dry, but then before we knew it, we got a storm.  Just about all the great storms down there at least were proceeded by strong arctic outbreaks.  I know it can be different up here.  Every once in a while we get cold overwhelming and dry but I don't think that is happening here - i hope!

I definitely hate cold and dry, but sh*t...this is better than any puke we've seen at H5 since 2011.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I love that euro run.

Any ocean effect?

Probably some on the Lower/Outer Cape with NW flow.

But I'm just talking about the overall look - that's real winter there.

[Damage In Tolland]

This might rival what Eurasia saw last year in terms of magnitude and longevity

[Ginx snewx]

haters gonna hate, how's that weenie Strato warming coming along. You hate it when I am right. LOL

[free_man]

arctic chill to App cutters for early Feb.

[ORH_wxman]

Thats a ridiculous ridge out west. I doubt we'd be left dry the whole time in that setup. Its always a possibility...never say never...but I'd guess we would have some fun in that pattern.

[Tropopause_Fold]

arctic chill to App cutters for early Feb.

You're going to hate this weather...delivering packages with -35F wind chills FTL

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

 

[Damage In Tolland]

You're going to hate this weather...delivering packages with -35F wind chills FTL

Blue instead of Brown?

[powderfreak]

There's ways hope in the next pattern...if not this one then the next one

[moneypitmike]

If there is any place that might have a muted torch, probably will be near MPM and that part of SNE.

 

I'm cool with that (no pun intended).

 

This run was a hair better. Pay no attention to the QPF, this nrn edge will likely have a deformation band. So it's important to track mid level RH and VV.

 

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

 

Staying cool in advance of the rain--30.7/24.  Should get a little zr in any case.

[CoastalWx]

 

 

LOL

[moneypitmike]

Right on cue---light rain's started--bit of pings.  Must be freezing on contact. 

[TalcottWx]

With these 850's what would be temps at bos orh bdl etc?

[Quincy]

With these 850's what would be temps at bos orh bdl etc?

 

 

With these 850's what would be temps at bos orh bdl etc?

Based on 850's near -20C, temperatures probably wouldn't get out of the teens. GFS literally has 2m temps down to zero for NYC BOS in the extended.

 

Jan. 22, 2000 featured a record low maximum at ORH of +9F:

[CoastalWx]

With these 850's what would be temps at bos orh bdl etc?

 

Depends on wind direction and snowcover. WNW winds and bare ground would add at least a few degrees.

[Damage In Tolland]

Single digits valley and coast. Near 0 hills

[CoastalWx]

Best cold delivery for BOS is NNW or N flow.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

New Ice Age inbound?

 

Would love to see Tuesday produce something snow-wise on the front side. 

[OSUmetstud]

the blocking so variable from run to run...it's kind of annoying.  Hopefully we have a better idea in a few days.

[Quincy]

the blocking so variable from run to run...it's kind of annoying.  Hopefully we have a better idea in a few days.

Too much inconsistency with respect to just how cold it gets, but at least confidence is growing high for some sort of cold. Ensembles have been hitting at it for a while now.

[OSUmetstud]

Too much inconsistency with respect to just how cold it gets, but at least confidence is growing high for some sort of cold. Ensembles have been hitting at it for a while now.

 

oh i don't doubt the cold...but blocking has a lot of say in the longevity of the pattern.

[TalcottWx]

Best cold delivery for BOS is NNW or N flow.

Boston harbour going to start and ice over?

[CoastalWx]

Boston harbour going to start and ice over?

 

Nah, we'll need extended cold. If this continued into early Feb maybe. Waters are still warm.

[weathafella]

Very very happy.

[ROOSTA]

Boston harbour going to start and ice over?

Charles River will most assured. Estuaries and shallow coastal locals will have Ice-Blocks. Then just imagine the flooding "if" a coastal gets cranking.

[HM]

Modeling indicating that the weaken / split vortex state may initiate another warming (internal upwelling) over the western NAO regions at the end of the month. We could see more of a -NAO signal in February; but for now, enjoy your cold. zzzzzz....