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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 6:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'd take it. The overall pattern keeps cold with maybe a clipper and a chance for something bigger with such a sharp ridge out west. This is the type of pattern where weenie s/w's may just appear in NW Canada heading SE within like 5 days.

exactly.  i would think this will produce whether it shows up on models right now or not.  I think we have to get the front through Sunday night and see how it all sets up thereafter.  I remember these sorts of set ups when I lived in Philly...it looked cold and dry, but then before we knew it, we got a storm.  Just about all the great storms down there at least were proceeded by strong arctic outbreaks.  I know it can be different up here.  Every once in a while we get cold overwhelming and dry but I don't think that is happening here - i hope!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 7:01 PM, mahk_webstah said:

exactly.  i would think this will produce whether it shows up on models right now or not.  I think we have to get the front through Sunday night and see how it all sets up thereafter.  I remember these sorts of set ups when I lived in Philly...it looked cold and dry, but then before we knew it, we got a storm.  Just about all the great storms down there at least were proceeded by strong arctic outbreaks.  I know it can be different up here.  Every once in a while we get cold overwhelming and dry but I don't think that is happening here - i hope!

I definitely hate cold and dry, but sh*t...this is better than any puke we've seen at H5 since 2011.

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 6:47 PM, CT Blizz said:

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

  On 1/11/2013 at 6:47 PM, CT Blizz said:

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

 

6534.gif

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 4:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

If there is any place that might have a muted torch, probably will be near MPM and that part of SNE.

 

I'm cool with that (no pun intended).

 

  On 1/11/2013 at 6:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

This run was a hair better. Pay no attention to the QPF, this nrn edge will likely have a deformation band. So it's important to track mid level RH and VV.

 

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

 

Staying cool in advance of the rain--30.7/24.  Should get a little zr in any case.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 7:27 PM, sbos_wx said:

With these 850's what would be temps at bos orh bdl etc?

 

 

  On 1/11/2013 at 7:27 PM, sbos_wx said:

With these 850's what would be temps at bos orh bdl etc?

Based on 850's near -20C, temperatures probably wouldn't get out of the teens. GFS literally has 2m temps down to zero for NYC BOS in the extended.

 

Jan. 22, 2000 featured a record low maximum at ORH of +9F:

012212.png

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 7:37 PM, OSUmetstud said:

the blocking so variable from run to run...it's kind of annoying.  Hopefully we have a better idea in a few days.

Too much inconsistency with respect to just how cold it gets, but at least confidence is growing high for some sort of cold. Ensembles have been hitting at it for a while now.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
  On 1/11/2013 at 7:38 PM, Quincy said:

Too much inconsistency with respect to just how cold it gets, but at least confidence is growing high for some sort of cold. Ensembles have been hitting at it for a while now.

 

oh i don't doubt the cold...but blocking has a lot of say in the longevity of the pattern.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Modeling indicating that the weaken / split vortex state may initiate another warming (internal upwelling) over the western NAO regions at the end of the month. We could see more of a -NAO signal in February; but for now, enjoy your cold. zzzzzz....

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