Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[CoastalWx]

We know that. Works both ways, you bump, awt and ilk like that too. Thank god for the Pros though

 

Glad you agree.

[OSUmetstud]

Come on dude. Not here

will is a sexy beast

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL a -21-30 Polar front? 

 

This Mondays polar front with usher in -21 to -30C 850s?

[Ginx snewx]

But it's a discussion board lol. How can you make a forecast 10 days out?  Yes it will get colder, possibly briefly very cold for a day or two and there will be some chances for snow. What more do you want?

 

You do great dude, any forecast past day 3 is hard in these volatile days. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

gfs ensemble mean has a pretty serious cold shot with the second arctic airmass inbound - along the same lines as the op. to see ~500 thicknesses on a mean at day 10 is pretty amazing. 

[Ginx snewx]

This Mondays polar front with usher in -21 to -30C 850s?

 

huh i was showing the arctic front shown on the GFS at day 156 when i commented, you replied Polar front??????

[Ginx snewx]

gfs ensemble mean has a pretty serious cold shot with the second arctic airmass inbound - along the same lines as the op. to see ~500 thicknesses on a mean at day 10 is pretty amazing. 

 

Thats sick, man hope we get some snow cover.

[mahk_webstah]

You do sound a lot like the long-absent MRG.

 

If you saw my hair you wouldn't be confused.

[Tropopause_Fold]

gfs ensemble mean has a pretty serious cold shot with the second arctic airmass inbound - along the same lines as the op. to see ~500 thicknesses on a mean at day 10 is pretty amazing. 

 

coming into New England that is. obviously 500 thicknesses up in hudson bay would be NBD, but seeing that coming into the northeast on day 10 implies some ridiculously cold ind members

[Ginx snewx]

Glad you agree.

 

I should modify that but will not pick on anyone but I sure do appreciate most of you.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Arctic front blasts through on Monday, snow Tuesday.  Cool up for two days and then the true arctic front tears through the region leaving power outages and frozen tongues on Thursday?

 

 

By the 19th and 20th all models agree it's very cold around here.

 

 

polar front

 

 

huh i was showing the arctic front shown on the GFS at day 156 when i commented, you replied Polar front??????

 

Go reread the exchange Steve.  I was not responding to you. 

[Mr Torchey]

Meanwhile a very raw chilly day out here

 

37 with a nasty ne wind

[CoastalWx]

That block north of AK is very crucial. That will help keep the PV locked in central Canada. Pretty decent pattern.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a mess

[Clinch Leatherwood]

gfs ensemble mean has a pretty serious cold shot with the second arctic airmass inbound - along the same lines as the op. to see ~500 thicknesses on a mean at day 10 is pretty amazing. 

 

I've been keeping track of the GFS ENS.  This animation is offset 6 hours, about 4 model days worth of runs apart.  This has been the pretty consistent "patter" this winter.  At 10 days things look amazing with a deep plunge into the heartland or down into the east coast that gets gradually blunted/deflected NE with time.   I suspect as we approach the 16th-18th we'll continue to see deflection of the coldest air NE.  Doesn't mean we won't get cold, but it's IMO been the case most times that we see the models either drive the cold west of us, or deflect it east of us as we creep through the days.

I'll update this in 4-5 days.

 

In case the animation doesn't work the raw files are attached.

[CoastalWx]

i think u make a good point as did phil, that it is a discussion board. some people get so caught up with watching met's give forecasts on air,  that they think this board will be alot like them watching the news cast,  and the disco in here will be with met's discussing their forecasts. I agree that is unreasonable bc it's mostly about discussing ideas and possibilities and sometimes going into detail wrt to that.

 

What i think people want more clarity on is if your discussing "snow chances" it's the middle of january , there will be snow chances in the extended. are those snow chances small, medium, high. just give any indication what the chances are.  I think the mid december time frame was hinted well esp by ryan that the best chances would be for the interior and i remember you saying it may be difficult to get snow to the coast. which you guys nailed.  

 

Well wording is part of it. Will note that in the future.

[Ginx snewx]

Go reread the exchange Steve.  I was not responding to you. 

 

On the phone it looked like you replied to me, yea Monday is a normal cold front, then the hounds come in Friday, oh boy about time we had some real winter weather to talk about. Thaws suck donkey.

[radarman]

Regardless... if people throw out thoughts sometimes it comes back to haunt them with a stream of AWTs, bumps, and other posts of that ilk. 

 

This is true no doubt.  But folks who actually make real-world decisions about meteorology are not deterred by weenie bump troll posts about a failed forecast.  The cream rises to the top and in the end it is the opinions of folks like yourself, Scooter, Will,etc. that will be considered when the time comes. 

 

In my business I feel the weak link is not the state of the forecasting necessarily, but the meaningful application of the forecast over time as the uncertainty decreases.  Obviously at time X with high uncertainty one should do only ..., later at time X+N with greater certainty it is prudent to do ..., etc.  Most non-met decision makers  I talk to would rather have a met give them a something solid, and allow for the fact that much like baseball even the pros fail often. 

 

This board is not the place where decision makers go for this though.  It's what they pay the big bucks for.  So in that respect my original post was off the mark.

[OSUmetstud]

 

Looks like this event, if not one of the strongest magnitude wise, it will be one of the longest, with stratospherical temps above normal for an extended period of time. Rewarming just occurred and it looks like a definite propagator in the long range. This warming was probably induced by type 2 & 3 waves, which are more favorable for propagating and PV splitting events

 

Renewed warming starting at the upper stratosphere

 time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif

 

Wave 2 amplitudes might have triggered this warming phase

 time_pres_WAVE2_MEAN_JFM_NH_2013.gif

 

All 10 days show mostly easterly winds above 60N on the whole stratosphere/troposphere column, high latitude anomalous high heights (ridging).

 ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

 

sweet..from jorge (wxmx) in the statospheric warming thread on the main page.

[mahk_webstah]

gfs ensemble mean has a pretty serious cold shot with the second arctic airmass inbound - along the same lines as the op. to see ~500 thicknesses on a mean at day 10 is pretty amazing. 

 

If we can a few inches of fresh snow cover, and then that comes down, then we might get below -20 here.  Goodbye peaches.

[mahk_webstah]

coming into New England that is. obviously 500 thicknesses up in hudson bay would be NBD, but seeing that coming into the northeast on day 10 implies some ridiculously cold ind members

 

Frozen weenies!

[Brian5671]

Meanwhile a very raw chilly day out here

 

37 with a nasty ne wind

precip on the doorstep too...

[CoastalWx]

I've been keeping track of that Nick. Pretty impressive warming...from some of the coldest temps ever to warmest temps ever up in the strat.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Ukie for next week?

 

To answer your question.  It looks minimal on the frontal passage.  700mb RH looks to be drying out my Monday.

 

[mahk_webstah]

I've been keeping track of that Nick. Pretty impressive warming...from some of the coldest temps ever to warmest temps ever up in the strat.

That much of an extreme flip would suggest an extreme pattern flip, and I'm beginning to think we have at least a4-6 week period of hardcore winter in front of us.

[OSUmetstud]

[CT Rain]

This is true no doubt.  But folks who actually make real-world decisions about meteorology are not deterred by weenie bump troll posts about a failed forecast.  The cream rises to the top and in the end it is the opinions of folks like yourself, Scooter, Will,etc. that will be considered when the time comes. 

 

In my business I feel the weak link is not the state of the forecasting necessarily, but the meaningful application of the forecast over time as the uncertainty decreases.  Obviously at time X with high uncertainty one should do only ..., later at time X+N with greater certainty it is prudent to do ..., etc.  Most non-met decision makers  I talk to would rather have a met give them a something solid, and allow for the fact that much like baseball even the pros fail often. 

 

This board is not the place where decision makers go for this though.  It's what they pay the big bucks for.  So in that respect my original post was off the mark.

 

I see what you're saying though for sure. For me, I don't have a problem posting a forecast but I don't know if run-of-the-mill weenies know how much time goes into an actual forecast. I have no problem throwing out ideas but chances are if I'm posting I haven't sat at my desk for a couple hours pouring over all the data to come up with a legit forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well we've got the GGEM and GGEM ens and Gefs vs the op Gfs and Ukie for the mid week wave. Lets see what Euro rips out

[OSUmetstud]

I guess the question is...does it just split the PV and keep a strong PV in central Canada...or does it actually eventually destroy it.  For big storms you generally want a weak PV...DT was always big on this.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I guess the question is...does it just split the PV and keep a strong PV in central Canada...or does it actually eventually destroy it.  For big storms you generally want a weak PV...DT was always big on this.

 

From the way I look at it, strat warming is much more effective when it splits the PV...which is seems like it's doing. Basically what is the reason a PV stays status quo? Thermal wind arguments right? Well what if we split the PV up and now reverse the temp stratification such that colder air is now south and warmer north. It has a spin down effect to the PVs because now we lost the thermal gradient driving these features. Of course it can consolidate somewhere down the road..but that's how I look at it.