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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Not picking on you here, but IMO there has been a disturbing trend of meteorologists never actually making a forecast, just constantly laying out possibilities.  It's extremely, extremely rare for there to ever be a true slam dunk pattern where mets say GET NAKED EVERYBODY RIGHT NOW, even within 3 days.  I'd rather have someone strap on a pair and say what they expect to happen, and I'm happy to give them a pass when they're wrong so long as they've laid out their reasoning and don't have a tiresome bias (hi JB).

 

Probabilistic forecasting I know is the in thing for NWS mets, and I also know that mets are very often unfairly criticized by the real weenies out there who don't understand that there's ALWAYS caution flags to be thrown, but screw those people.  You're not going to win with them anyway.

 

well, people actually make forecasts when there are real events to track in the near term...as for a medium/long range discussion...I don't see really any problem with laying out possibilities.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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Because there are too many JBs out there who screw up the science for anyone else. This winter has been a strain on models. It would be completely irresponsible for a met to make a call for two weeks out. Period. That's not how it works in a volatile pattern. If you have a question or want a forecast, I'm sure most mets will give it there best shot. In fact, some of my better forecasts have been smacking down Kevin's snow chances..which ironically have been euro busts from like 5-7 days out. I have fun doing that. But I disagree with your opinion. The science past 7 days is highly probable.

I have 30.5 inches of your smack downs in your fanny
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Canadian has some nice eye candy for next week...it handles the SW energy differently than other models and produces a pretty nice snow event for much of the northeast.

 

I don't think it will happen that way, but its an example of how small differences in handling the southwest energy can lead to much different results.

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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted

Not picking on you here, but IMO there has been a disturbing trend of meteorologists never actually making a forecast, just constantly laying out possibilities. It's extremely, extremely rare for there to ever be a true slam dunk pattern where mets say GET NAKED EVERYBODY RIGHT NOW, even within 3 days. I'd rather have someone strap on a pair and say what they expect to happen, and I'm happy to give them a pass when they're wrong so long as they've laid out their reasoning and don't have a tiresome bias (hi JB).

Probabilistic forecasting I know is the in thing for NWS mets, and I also know that mets are very often unfairly criticized by the real weenies out there who don't understand that there's ALWAYS caution flags to be thrown, but screw those people. You're not going to win with them anyway.

No Met should be making a definitive forecast past day 3-4. They should portray day 1-3 with a likelihood, day 4 as a probability and days 5-7 as a possibility.
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radarman

radarman

Posted
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I don't see really any problem with laying out possibilities.

 

I don't either.  So long as the forecast comes eventually.   But I grant Phil's point that this is not a forecast board and there is no obligation to make one here.

 

I've just read way too many claims of victory in the last 12 months.  When every possibility is laid out ahead of time victory becomes meaningless.  The science presented on this board is outstanding, and given that, the fear of failure is overblown.  

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Not picking on you here, but IMO there has been a disturbing trend of meteorologists never actually making a forecast, just constantly laying out possibilities.  It's extremely, extremely rare for there to ever be a true slam dunk pattern where mets say GET NAKED EVERYBODY RIGHT NOW, even within 3 days.  I'd rather have someone strap on a pair and say what they expect to happen, and I'm happy to give them a pass when they're wrong so long as they've laid out their reasoning and don't have a tiresome bias (hi JB).

 

Probabilistic forecasting I know is the in thing for NWS mets, and I also know that mets are very often unfairly criticized by the real weenies out there who don't understand that there's ALWAYS caution flags to be thrown, but screw those people.  You're not going to win with them anyway.

 

Concur, I said this a bunch of times, there are caution flags constantly in the winter in SNE, no doubt about it. Basically you are saying grow a friggin set once in a while, throw caution to the wind, especially on here, you have nothing to lose. In a bad winter caution wins every time. In Jan 11 caution lost, it is what it is, nobody here I think really cares.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Concur, I said this a bunch of times, there are caution flags constantly in the winter in SNE, no doubt about it. Basically you are saying grow a friggin set once in a while, throw caution to the wind, especially on here, you have nothing to lose. In a bad winter caution wins every time. In Jan 11 caution lost, it is what it is, nobody here I think really cares.

 

Steve, it's a discussion board. If I'm not at work I'm probably not coming up with a "forecast". I'm casually looking at model runs and throwing out some thoughts. If I'm actually making a forecast it takes hours and it's something that I really don't have time for when posting 90% of the time.

 

Regardless... if people throw out thoughts sometimes it comes back to haunt them with a stream of AWTs, bumps, and other posts of that ilk. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I remember i specifically said it was going to be signficantly above normal this week  :whistle:

 

Not that was all that tough of a forecast...

 

 

Jan 18-25 being significantly below normal I think would be a pretty safe forecast...well as safe as a 7-14 day outlook can be.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Steve, it's a discussion board. If I'm not at work I'm probably not coming up with a "forecast". I'm casually looking at model runs and throwing out some thoughts. If I'm actually making a forecast it takes hours and it's something that I really don't have time for when posting 90% of the time.

 

Regardless... if people throw out thoughts sometimes it comes back to haunt them with a stream of AWTs, bumps, and other posts of that ilk. 

 

We know that. Works both ways, you bump, awt and ilk like that too. Thank god for the Pros though

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