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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Let me just make a point on the GFS op and loop H5 if you would like.

 

It is important to have the ridge out west. Why? Well if you have that, then any dumbell motion of the PV will allow for s/w's to amplify in the flow. This is why I mentioned that I wasn't too worried about this PV really killing snow chances. Now if if sat overhead Jan 2004 style...perhaps then the need to worry is there, but I do not see that right now. Also, look at that block north of AK. Another key feature to have and allow s/w's from NW Canada to come down the pike and amplify too. Nobody should expect a KU, but I think this could have some nice clipper action..maybe a little EC action if we can get a lobe to come down from the Plains and fire up cyclogenesis.

 

This is the GFS verbatim so don't treat that as a forecast by any means...just an example of how things COULD shake out.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Again JMHO.

 

I won't hold my breath on the inverted trough ice for ages event on Tuesday.  After that it's 7+ days out, and I think there's a real hint that we're going to flatten things out.  That's just my opinion, I may well be totally wrong.  To me the next 6-8, maybe 9 days look meh.

 

Well it could end up meh...I was just speaking to that run verbatim. I thought it was decent.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Let me just make a point on the GFS op and loop H5 if you would like.

 

It is important to have the ridge out west. Why? Well if you have that, then any dumbell motion of the PV will allow for s/w's to amplify in the flow. This is why I mentioned that I wasn't too worried about this PV really killing snow chances. Now if if sat overhead Jan 2004 style...perhaps then the need to worry is there, but I do not see that right now. Also, look at that block north of AK. Another key feature to have and allow s/w's from NW Canada to come down the pike and amplify too. Nobody should expect a KU, but I think this could have some nice clipper action..maybe a little EC action if we can get a lobe to come down from the Plains and fire up cyclogenesis.

 

This is the GFS verbatim so don't treat that as a forecast by any means...just an example of how things COULD shake out.

 

There's a reason that we got shellacked on most of the GFS analog composites. Its a good pattern for us. Hopefully it materializes.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

i don't really see the big deal in posters commenting on the duration of the initial cold being less on the GFS 12z op. 

 

I'm not sure what the expectation is though. Even that ridiculous run of the Euro a few days ago never had this as a long duration arctic outbreak...we kept making comments like "wow, that would be crazy cold...and then maybe a snow threat quickly after as the pattern looks to do a reload"

 

I don't recall any model runs that had that first arctic shot for Thu/Fri more than a day or two. They all sort of signaled that reload pattern right behind it....which is actually much more preferred if we want to get some snow threats.

 

I think we'll have more arctic blast threats beyond the initial one anyway.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
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i don't really see the big deal in posters commenting on the duration of the initial cold being less on the GFS 12z op. 

 

It really does not matter to me, there were a few runs the Euro had that were just ridiculous cold, record breaking stuff in NNE.  We all want snow, I think the latest model runs perhaps backing off on the magnitude and the extreme southern placement of the Polar Vortex is a great thing, its plenty cold just not the ridiculous variety.......but we want snow, great run, great run!!

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

It really does not matter to me, there were a few runs the Euro had that were just ridiculous cold, record breaking stuff in NNE. We all want snow, I think the latest model runs perhaps backing off on the magnitude and the extreme southern placement of the Polar Vortex is a great thing, its plenty cold just not the ridiculous variety.......but we want snow, great run, great run!!

concur
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Well it could end up meh...I was just speaking to that run verbatim. I thought it was decent.

 

Yeah I know.  I don't look as closely as you guys do, I'm looking overall because I think we're seeing the models having a hard time with specifics.  I'm not loving what I'm seeing on the OP GFS, hoping it's just that model.

Kind of like you said, wake me up Sunday.

 

LOL just say caution, you so you can CYA and never be completely wrong.

 

I've been talking about the 18th for I think since the end of December really with no caution.   I think in general the timing is working out pretty well.  If I'm wrong on it relaxing after the initial pulse and the 2nd one being significantly muted vs the current OP GFS depiction so be it.  In general the GFS/ENS have shaved 2-4 c at 8h the every run or two in that 6-7 day period, and last nights 0c to todays 12z is no exception where we had -24 it's -20, probably -16 or so by the 0z run tonight for the same period.   Extremes be mutin' (it seems to tip the balance at about 160-170 hours, inside of there the GFS starts losing c) - extreme cold on the other side of the truncation.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA168.gif

 

 

 

 

i don't really see the big deal in posters commenting on the duration of the initial cold being less on the GFS 12z op. 

 

I think it's been pretty consistent in easing the intensity of the cold the last few runs, AMOUT.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

It's not a CYA..it's using science as to why people should hold up. Has worked well the last two seasons.

 

Not picking on you here, but IMO there has been a disturbing trend of meteorologists never actually making a forecast, just constantly laying out possibilities.  It's extremely, extremely rare for there to ever be a true slam dunk pattern where mets say GET NAKED EVERYBODY RIGHT NOW, even within 3 days.  I'd rather have someone strap on a pair and say what they expect to happen, and I'm happy to give them a pass when they're wrong so long as they've laid out their reasoning and don't have a tiresome bias (hi JB).

 

Probabilistic forecasting I know is the in thing for NWS mets, and I also know that mets are very often unfairly criticized by the real weenies out there who don't understand that there's ALWAYS caution flags to be thrown, but screw those people.  You're not going to win with them anyway.

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scoob40

scoob40

Posted
Posted

It is getting colder...we have a deep trough incoming, the pv is nearer to us, high latitude blocking keeps showing up, we have had a pretty active southern stream, models suggesting relaxes and reloads...i could go on, but lots of cold, lots of blocking, lots of energy.  We are very likely to do well over the next month.  Yippee!

 

PS it won't all show up nicely on the models too far in advance, but once we get past sunday, stuff will start to pop.

You do sound a lot like the long-absent MRG.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What in the hell is going on here?

 

Weenie central today.

 

 

 

I think people are going to whine no matter how this pattern evolves. If it evolves slightly more relaxed and we get 2 feet of snow in 2 weeks, they will whine that it didn't hit -20F...if we hit -20F and then stay mostly dry from suppression, they will whine that they didn't get 2 feet of snow.

 

If we get 15" of snow and -10F temps, they will whine that it wasn't 30" of snow and -20F low temps. If we get kind of shafted with only a bit of snow and no extreme temps, they will whine the pattern is just like last winter.

 

 

Lol...that's how I see it.

 

 

I think people should keep expectations realistic though. We have been focusing on this pattern since it was 2 weeks out because we knew the torch was going to take up this first week....so its easy to forget that a lot can still change.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Not picking on you here, but IMO there has been a disturbing trend of meteorologists never actually making a forecast, just constantly laying out possibilities.  It's extremely, extremely rare for there to ever be a true slam dunk pattern where mets say GET NAKED EVERYBODY RIGHT NOW, even within 3 days.  I'd rather have someone strap on a pair and say what they expect to happen, and I'm happy to give them a pass when they're wrong so long as they've laid out their reasoning and don't have a tiresome bias (hi JB).

 

Probabilistic forecasting I know is the in thing for NWS mets, and I also know that mets are very often unfairly criticized by the real weenies out there who don't understand that there's ALWAYS caution flags to be thrown, but screw those people.  You're not going to win with them anyway.

 

i understand your point - but this isn't a forecasting board. it's a discussion board. 

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polski

polski

Posted
Posted

Sorry for the pseudo-IMBY question but any thoughts on timing of start of ZR today - have an issue with transportation for my son from Wachusett, where his ski racing should end around ~615p, back to NE MA (approx 1.5 hrs in good wx). KBOX 1030a AFD update is a little vague on when precip will reach the ground:

 

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITHENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. ECHOES ACROSS SNE WILL ONLY BE VIRGA ASATMOSPHERE IS QUIET DRY PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS TEMPDEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUIET HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. ASTHE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALLOWINGFOR THE PROFILE TO MOISTEN UP AS WELL AND PRECIP TO FALL. BELIEVETHIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS PERLATEST NAM AND HIRES MODELS.

 

tnx in advance

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Not picking on you here, but IMO there has been a disturbing trend of meteorologists never actually making a forecast, just constantly laying out possibilities.  It's extremely, extremely rare for there to ever be a true slam dunk pattern where mets say GET NAKED EVERYBODY RIGHT NOW, even within 3 days.  I'd rather have someone strap on a pair and say what they expect to happen, and I'm happy to give them a pass when they're wrong so long as they've laid out their reasoning and don't have a tiresome bias (hi JB).

 

Probabilistic forecasting I know is the in thing for NWS mets, and I also know that mets are very often unfairly criticized by the real weenies out there who don't understand that there's ALWAYS caution flags to be thrown, but screw those people.  You're not going to win with them anyway.

 

Because there are too many JBs out there who screw up the science for anyone else. This winter has been a strain on models. It would be completely irresponsible for a met to make a call for two weeks out. Period. That's not how it works in a volatile pattern. If you have a question or want a forecast, I'm sure most mets will give it there best shot. In fact, some of my better forecasts have been smacking down Kevin's snow chances..which ironically have been euro busts from like 5-7 days out.  I have fun doing that.  But I disagree with your opinion. The science past 7 days is highly probable.

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