Living on the edge

[gymengineer]

For a lot of snowstorms, historic or moderate, we have to deal with those nervous hours for a number of things to go right so that 1) the snow doesn't end well before forecast; 2) the snow actually starts; or 3) the snow will actually start to accumulate efficiently. 

 

Some of the examples over the past couple of decades-

 

2/95- Radar didn't look good before the low bombed out and heavy snow forecasts were up in the air-  Sue Palka said something along the lines of the storm wasn't "gel'ing like it was forecasted to." We still got in on a window of heavy snow and a 5-8" region-wide snowstorm.

 

Blizzard of 96-  Dry slot over parts of the region with graupel and other spritzing-mess elsewhere during the afternoon hours on Sunday led to a scaling back of rest-of-storm accumulations by some TV weathermen and nervous hours for weather weenies. Of course, early evening into late night saw the bands of heavy snow with strong gusts sweep back into the area as the low really deepened, and we got another 4-8" area-wide along with impressive drifting.

 

2/97- A grass-and tree-limb lining snow during the daytime that melted on all paved surfaces quickly covered over all surfaces after sunset. 3-7" in the DC metro.

 

2/26-28/03- Nothing about this extended stretch was easy to forecast. First, there was an underforecast brief burst of snow laying 1-2" across the DC area. Then, during what was supposed to be the main event, with WSW's out for 6-10" or more of snow, the snow had trouble accumulating during the daytime on the 27th. Finally, with the setting sun, snow started to accumulate on all surfaces, lasting past midnight with 4-5" across the area. The total three-day period was 5-7" for most of the DC area.

 

2/24-25/05- The first of two snows that followed almost identical outcomes: moderate to heavy snow forecast (WSW) busted during the daytime hours in most locations because the snow was light to moderate and didn't accumulate on pavement. Schools were shut during the day with many complaints about an overreaction. Then, the after-sunset backbuilding at least somewhat redeemed the storm with accumulation on all surfaces deep into the night.

 

2/28/05- This was the second storm in the series- Moist looking Miller A while south of us that managed to flake out during daytime hours (Great Lakes Low complicated matters) but left a burst of heavy snow after sunset. After the two storms, there were columns about how wimpy DC was with regard to snow, and some ridiculed the area closures before the snow even started.

 

12/5-6/05- One of those slower-to-start snows with a discouraging radar that filled in nicely and kept on snowing. 2.5-5" in the DC area and seen as somewhat an over-performer.

 

2/06- The snow did not start accumulating Saturday night as soon as forecast, leading to slashing of snow forecasts and bust calls. Bob Ryan dropped snow accumulations way down for the 11 pm newscast based on the ground truth at that time, but Matt kept us steady with latest RUC update. Anyone who stayed up through the night got to witness a super snow dump.

 

12/5/07- This snow didn't go as forecast exactly. We got an early morning burst of snow (~1") before sunrise that was underforecast and stuck to every surface. Then, there was a long pause with non-accumulating snow during the daytime. And then we got the evening burst that brought us over the forecasted amounts, ending at 3-5" across most of the area.

 

3/1-2/09- Pretty much everyone who didn't live in the eastern reaches of the metro region was thinking "bust" by bedtime on Sunday. They got dumped on while we were passing in and out of precip. The 'superband' saved the metro area the next morning and we happily ended up reaching the low to mid end of the forecasts with 5-8".

 

2/5-6/10- Yes, there were actually calls of 'bust' when the snow didn't stick well in lower elevations during Friday late afternoon into early evening. Also, plenty were nervous when the back edge was nearing DC from 1-3 am. Of course, the pivot happened and we were in snow for most of the daytime on Saturday.

 

 

What other ones do you remember? I know there have been several recent "Radar looks like crap" situations where we did end up hitting the forecast. But in the '10/'11 season, hitting the forecast meant getting our 1-1.5" that didn't even cover the glass-blades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

You never cease to amaze me with your detailed recollections of past events. 

 

I can remember the  NBC4 11 PM newscast the night before the '83 blizzard and Bob Ryan somewhat downgrading the impending storm.  That night Front Royal received a surprise snow burst around 9 PM (I think) which gave us a real solid dusting to maybe an inch.  The burst moved on and I can remember Bob downplaying the storm, telling kids to 'do their homework' just in case.  Despite remembering hearing buzz about feet of snow (I can't recall if these were actual forecasts from anyone or just hearsay) I think his forecast that night was 4-8" and he didn't seem too confident in that.  I don't remember the details of that pattern and/or what could've gone wrong.  All I remember is waking up before dawn the next morning with my sister listening to the radio and hearing all the cancellations being announced.  I looked outside and there was already at least 6" of snow and it was snowing hard.  Recieved 32" by early evening.  Just an amazing storm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On the Feb. 5-6, 2010 event, I somehow remember seeing the NWS in Sterling sort of back off on their total amounts early in the morning of Feb. 6, or at least recall reading how they were backing off in their discussion.  However, they then upped them again by mid-morning to the general area-wide 20-30" storm total amounts they had been going with the previous day.  Which of course is the range that most everyone ended up with.  For instance, I swear I saw the forecast over the District go from storm totals "over two feet" Friday evening down to "18-24 inches" early Saturday morning, then back to "over two feet" again.

 

And I distinctly remember the tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth here very late Friday night (Feb. 5), on whether or not the back edge would pivot!  It did lighten up for awhile where I'm at for a few hours overnight, but was snowing pretty good again through late Saturday afternoon.

 

Similarly, Feb. 9-10, 2010.  I got around 2" or so on the evening of the 9th, then it lightened up by later evening and much of the night with some freezing rain/drizzle and sleet.  In fact, we got a decent little crust of ice.  I remember going to bed really wondering if that could potentially be a big bust, and would look really bad.  Of course, I was awakened the following morning to a blast of wind and whiteout blizzard conditions which lasted most of the rest of the day on Feb. 10.  Ended up with 12" myself, though it was nearly impossible to measure with the wind, and would not be surprised if it was actually a bit more.

[gymengineer]

2/9-10/10 was one of the best examples of us getting to forecasted amount in a way not literally suggested in the forecast/model outputs. 3/09 was the same.

 

Looking back at all these examples, for most major events, we're going to have some nervous moments or something that's not "going according to plan."

 

That's what makes 12/18-19/09 so amazing: all snow, steady from the start, nice half-foot accumulation by morning, well-forecasted ramping up of intensity through late morning, and a gradual easing up of intensity of snow towards the end. This was one storm with no real nervous moments.

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

I remember most of these examples, including the 1/96 dry slot (only lasted an hour or so for me so it wasn't that bad), and Feb 06 overnight dump (stayed up through the night so I crashed once the snow ended).

[brad1551]

"GREAT JOB" on your post gymengineer!!!

I appreciate the time and effort you put in your post.

[Jebman]

This says it all for LWX:

 

 

 

IF PLANS INCLUDE SPENDING MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND OUTDOORS - ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN - TREAT THE DAY LIKE A MID-SUMMER DAY. HAVE PLENTY OFWATER NEARBY AND DON`T RULE OUT SUNSCREEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAKEARLY. AN ABNORMALLY WARM DAY IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER CAN ACT LIKEAN ABNORMALLY WARM DAY IN THE SUMMER WHEN THE BODY IS NOT ACCLIMATEDTO IT.

 

 

 

The Mid Atlantic is cursed.

 

This winter will be a near-shutout for us - and warmer than normal to add insult to injury.

 

There was a winter in DCA, I believe it was 2001-2002, when we only got 3 inches snow total for the season.

 

This winter threatens to smash that record. Temperatures have been average to mild.

 

Mark My Words - This winter ALL of the storm tracks will be Trinidad A or B. No exceptions.

 

This is a Northern Plains, northern Midwest, Ohio Valley winter for snow. At times the Northeast will see snow as well.

 

Russia and China are the Grinch that Stole Winter 2012-2013.

 

Break out the spring wardrobe and the golf clubs.

 

I'm sick of spring in January. The vortex is on the other side of the Pole, through May 2013.

[Deck Pic]

great thread,...missed it for some reason...Will add some comments later....