Marion_NC_WX Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not sure what part of NC you are in but its going to be hard to get snow in Charlotte and Raleigh next Fri with forecast highs in the 50s. He's talking about Asheville and the favored northwest slope areas (Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Avery) have the best chance. Maybe mixed precip or light snow in Buncombe County (Asheville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 He's talking about Asheville and the favored northwest slope areas (Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Avery) have the best chance. Maybe mixed precip or light snow in Buncombe County (Asheville) Yeah I think he was meaning North and West of the Escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I know its the nam but it's throwing down some ice in early week for west tn, nw Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Man, 0z GFS just crushes that southern stream s/w to bits before it even gets out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 That's what all flat-landers say until they come to ski on Beech or Sugar. Then they take full claim. Yeah but I think his point was that it's a whole different game in weather in the mountains as opposed to the rest of NC, in which case he was right about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Is that some spots of -30 850's in Ohio Valley on the 24th? -20's well into the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 In the near term, the 00Z GFS is forecasting quite a bit of rainfall for the SE over the next five days: In the long term, it still carries the torch for the cold parade. (Wait. Did I just mix my metaphors?) Check out those incredibly cold 850s: sub-freezing down to Jacksonville and 100 miles out into the GOM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 In the long term, it still carries the torch for the cold parade. (Wait. Did I just mix my metaphors?) Check out those incredibly cold 850s: sub-freezing down to Jacksonville and 100 miles out into the GOM!! Holy god. Now this is what I want to see. If you want to replace my 80s, it better be replaced with record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Here's your surface temps at hour 300. All of the upper SE would be in single digits or colder. Freezing temps all along the gulf coast down to Tampa, FL. Some record cold showing up and not too likely to verify to that degree. But, what a sight for sore eyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 That's pretty close to 1985 territory there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 That's pretty close to 1985 territory there. Except that the upper SE doesn't have a snow pack down. The reason 1985 got so cold for east TN was that we had 6-12" of powder on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The last real mega cold i can remember was jan 03. Got down to 4.2 here a day or so after the super clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Holy god. Now this is what I want to see. If you want to replace my 80s, it better be replaced with record cold. The ironic thing is that if this did occur it would be so close to January 1985 that it may not technically be record cold... Even though if it were some other time of the winter it would be. January 1985 was a little different though. In this case, the PV is in pieces, meaning another slug could come around. In 1985, it was THE polar vortex. In this case, there doesn't appear to be enough snowpack for record cold to really grab a foothold. In January 1985, there was a good bit of snow across TN, possibly into northern GA, etc. I think it's possible, but it's hour 288, the resolution is low, and we need to get through the next few shortwaves and all this rain first. Then we'll know more about the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Here's a nice flashback for January 1985: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lol -56 across TN in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Canadian showing anything for next weekend? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Looks like freezing rain and snow for the western two thirds of TN and northern MS and AL. Freezing rain seems like it could be a real problem if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 That was a very dangerous situation. These were old windchill values though. The current calculation bottomed out at -38F. Take a look at the nosedive of temps between the day prior and that morning (about a 50 degree drop in 24 hours). http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBNA/1985/1/20/DailyHistory.html In Knoxville, the windchill only got to -32F, but the temps were a bit colder. I don't think we've ever had all day below 0 like that, even in 1899. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTYS/1985/1/20/DailyHistory.html Lol -56 across TN in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Here's your surface temps at hour 300. All of the upper SE would be in single digits or colder. Freezing temps all along the gulf coast down to Tampa, FL. Some record cold showing up and not too likely to verify to that degree. But, what a sight for sore eyes: Looks good. Just to keep a perspective, if the models come up just one degree with each run between now and then we are looking at temps in the 60s. Sorry, I just had to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lol -56 across TN in 1985. And what a difference between Nashville and South Carolina and northern Florida. A 90 degree difference in wind chills ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Now, I'm no scientician but that looks like snow in NC next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wunderground snow maps confirm snowfall across areas N&W of 85 in NC. It would also appear that the arctic hammer is being dropped at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wunderground snow maps confirm snowfall across areas N&W of 85 in NC. It would also appear that the arctic hammer is being dropped at 240. No surprise it has been showing this from hour 180 to now 162. One panel showing 7-8 inches in the Asheville area in just 1 frame. I have NEVER been a fan of a winter storm after a significant rain event. We are going to get 2-3+ inches of rain...the likelihood of two sig. back to back qpf events are slim to none in the tundra areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 THE TREND IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SW LOW EXIT... AND WILL STAY WITH THIS THINKING IN THE LATEST FORECAST. USED A 70/30 ECMWF/ECENS MEAN BLEND THAT SHIFTED TO OPPOSITE WEIGHTING BY DAYS 6-7 AS THE ECMWF FELL ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wunderground snow maps confirm snowfall across areas N&W of 85 in NC. It would also appear that the arctic hammer is being dropped at 240. Hey Jeremy, quite surprised about that snowfall map. I guess it's seeing the ULL the Euro had packing more of a punch. Of SV maps it's not nearly cold enough and it looked like the ULL just falls apart as it hits TN. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I like seeing the cold coming so we can have more chances at snow but if that Arctic front is that strong it will suppress all the storms to far south. Its true, you have to thread a needle around here, its so hard to get the cold and moisture in here at the right time where as up north or the midwest it seems to snow at nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The reason the Euro continues to produce a system and the GFS does not is that is closes off more energy at the base of that trough.... just look at the difference by 12z Wed.... Euro: 6z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Bigger view...maybe something to watch but I will hold off on getting excited until Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1128 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013VALID 12Z TUE JAN 15 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 19 2013THE GUIDANCE STILL FORECAST A DISPLACEMENT TO THE UPPER VORTEXOVER NORTHERN CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO A POSITIONFARTHER SOUTH OVER HUDSON BAY. BALANCING RIDGING OVER THE WESTERNPORTION OF THE CONTINENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... LOCKING IN THEPATTERN. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEENQUITE CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLESCLOSE BEHIND. THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVEPROVEN LESS USEFUL AS EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITYOVER RECENT RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The last real mega cold i can remember was jan 03. Got down to 4.2 here a day or so after the super clipper. Yeah, I remember that one I was in the 4th grade at the time and I remembered it got down to 8 degrees here. That was the first and last time I saw single digit lows here and it's also the first time I saw a Wind Chill Advisory issued. They ended up closing schools because it was too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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