franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The ensembles agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It could, again. This was IMHO. I don't think the Pacific has been that terrible. Could it have been better? Of course. But we have had a basically +nao since Christmas. The cold shots have not been able to lock in as well as the vortex that dropped in and lifted out very quickly. I agree to an extent - the PAC hasn't been as terrible as it was last winter. In my opinion, that's why this winter hasn't been as terrible either. Having said that, I believe both winters are direct products of the PAC and it's super fast sling shot act. Each winter has performed in close correlation with with the degree in which the PAC has behaved. Even with this winter featuring a blocking character (non existent last year), the result has still seemed to be PAC driven for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 A MAJOR key point was brought up here and is 100 % correct. Had the Pacific flow not been so strong and not been so persistent, this winter would have been entirely different. That is why I was shocked that anyone in their right mind would have said that the Pacific wasn't that terrible when in all actuality, it has been the major driver of this horrible pattern we have seen all winter. Having said that, I am not sure that I agree with the blocking comment. Although, if you wanted to compare the amount of blocking from last year and this year, indeed this year has seen a little more than last year but not enough to overcompensate for a crappy pacific. I agree to an extent - the PAC hasn't been as terrible as it was last winter. In my opinion, that's why this winter hasn't been as terrible either. Having said that, I believe both winters are direct products of the PAC and it's super fast sling shot act. Each winter has performed in close correlation with with the degree in which the PAC has behaved. Even with this winter featuring a blocking character (non existent last year), the result has still seemed to be PAC driven for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 A MAJOR key point was brought up here and is 100 % correct. Had the Pacific flow not been so strong and not been so persistent, this winter would have been entirely different. That is why I was shocked that anyone in their right mind would have said that the Pacific wasn't that terrible when in all actuality, it has been the major driver of this horrible pattern we have seen all winter. For the record though, I think what franklin was alluding to was that since the beginning of the year, the PAC did slow down a bit - at least enough to see an actual true long wave for once. Whether it forgets it's Ritalin ® again and starts bouncing around like a child on chocolate is my concern (it seems to have already decided). It's ironic really - it totally benefited myself this past spring, summer and fall, but became a child bearing dog in the winter. **Edited*** I will say that the PAC has been hands down the dominating factor over the SE ridge. Just wanted to be clear on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah, the jet slowed down but then we still mostly saw a neutral or only slightly + PNA For the record though, I think what franklin was alluding to was that since the beginning of the year, the PAC did slow down a bit - at least enough to see an actual true long wave for once. Whether it forgets it's Ritalin ® again and starts bouncing around like a child on chocolate is my concern (it seems to have already decided). It's ironic really - it totally benefited myself this past spring, summer and fall, but became a child bearing dog in the winter. **Edited*** I will say that the PAC has been hands down the dominating factor over the SE ridge. Just wanted to be clear on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It looks like Jan. of 2013 at Atlanta will end up at 49.9 F, which makes it the warmest one since 1974 and the 8th warmest one since 1879. Also, 12/1/12-1/31/13 ends up being the warmest since the barely warmer 1949-50 Dec.-Jan. and the 5th warmest since 1879-80. The warmth will likely continue into much of Feb. if past warm Dec/Jan's have any say-so. However, March could easily be a totally different story per these same analogs. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wouldn't have thought that, Larry. I'm glad you are following the truth of it Today seemed like a true winter day to me, as the wind was finally around, and I got numb more than once from the bite. But on the face of it, it wasn't all that cold, I just haven't seem much good wind this winter, except for the occasional cad wind blowing cold, but that's steady and this gusting blast we had today got at you from all sides In the sun, it wasn't that bad between gusts, but as soon as the sun drops it gets cold this winter.... just no staying power during the day. Which makes me think the nearly a tenth the Gfs wants to throw down this way will be rain, with a high dp and no real cold left. Hope that changes. The runs have trended lower with the 0 line, and the 850's, but temps where my head is, near 40, won't get it, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wouldn't have thought that, Larry. I'm glad you are following the truth of it Today seemed like a true winter day to me, as the wind was finally around, and I got numb more than once from the bite. But on the face of it, it wasn't all that cold, I just haven't seem much good wind this winter, except for the occasional cad wind blowing cold, but that's steady and this gusting blast we had today got at you from all sides In the sun, it wasn't that bad between gusts, but as soon as the sun drops it gets cold this winter.... just no staying power during the day. Which makes me think the nearly a tenth the Gfs wants to throw down this way will be rain, with a high dp and no real cold left. Hope that changes. The runs have trended lower with the 0 line, and the 850's, but temps where my head is, near 40, won't get it, lol. T Tony, Today was a true winter day..no doubt about it! Tomorrow will be quite cold...bundle up! Actually, 12/21-1/8 as well as 1/22-27 and today were all pretty seasonably cold in our areas...nice wintry temp.'s. So, even in a "warm" winter without extremely cold temp.'s, there are almost always some periods of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Tony, Today was a true winter day..no doubt about it! Tomorrow will be quite cold...bundle up! Actually, 12/21-1/8 as well as 1/22-27 and today were all pretty seasonably cold in our areas...nice wintry temp.'s. So, even in a "warm" winter without extremely cold temp.'s, there are almost always some periods of winter. I love how when we have our warm spells, temps are 20-30 above normal. But when we have our cold spells, it's only 5-10 below normal. What's up with that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I love how when we have our warm spells, temps are 20-30 above normal. But when we have our cold spells, it's only 5-10 below normal. What's up with that ? All I know is it's rare to not have at least one high below freezing for so long. I mean every year or two you get at least one cold snap with lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20s. It's not a good winter without at least some good cold cold Gfs still wants to give us a chance over the weekend. It has been trending from sickly to weakly, but it's a good trend, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 All I know is it's rare to not have at least one high below freezing for so long. I mean every year or two you get at least one cold snap with lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20s. It's not a good winter without at least some good cold cold Gfs still wants to give us a chance over the weekend. It has been trending from sickly to weakly, but it's a good trend, lol. T You would think we'd at least get one good cold spell every winter. Even the worst winters typically have a cold spell or two. And every winter there seems to be at least a few nights of widespread teens in the deep south. Not this winter though. It's a struggle to get below 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 You would think we'd at least get one good cold spell every winter. Even the worst winters typically have a cold spell or two. And every winter there seems to be at least a few nights of widespread teens in the deep south. Not this winter though. It's a struggle to get below 25. It was early Jan 3 years ago when I last got one. That ain't natural, any more than all that snow Atl got for two or three years in a row. Or the ULL snows I got two out of three years. Or snow on Christmas when it never happened before. Strange things are afoot, and I like this lack of cold part least. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Another UGLY run of the Euro -- +NAO, little to no Pacific ridging .... height anomalies in all the wrong places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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