bhamwx205 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Day 8-10 Euro pretty ugly -- --NAO disappearing. Marginal ridging out West. its much better than previous runs which had a trough on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Now that is an ugly picture...an east based -NAO with ridging stretching throughout much of the country...EWWWWW... Day 8-10 Euro pretty ugly -- --NAO disappearing. Marginal ridging out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That is faint praise for sure ..... its much better than previous runs which had a trough on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0z GFS verbatim shows some snow for KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0z GFS verbatim shows some snow for KATL. At what hour? Sorry, I don't really see anything noteworthy after a quick skim, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Now that is an ugly picture...an east based -NAO with ridging stretching throughout much of the country...EWWWWW... +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 At what hour? Sorry, I don't really see anything noteworthy after a quick skim, lol. Hour 18 from the 12z GFS. The text output shows it ending as light snow with temperatures in the 30s (just a trace, I suppose). Nothing to get excited about and the GFS seems to be alone on this, but I found it interesting. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KATL.txt It actually shows -SN at CLT and GSO at hr 24 with temperatures closer to freezing, but no QPF. I don't think there's anything to fawn over and I don't think the NAM agrees, but I found it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Now that is an ugly picture...an east based -NAO with ridging stretching throughout much of the country...EWWWWW... Yep, it sure is. On the brighter side, these 70º days are starting to grow on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 18z pretty interesting for cad areas for late next week. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry, I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree here, but I don't think we have to wait till the end of the month for a more widespread winter storm potential. I am targeting sometime b/w the 10th and 20th of February. To me it looks like we will have some sort of blocking building around the 8th or 9th (even if east based initially, hints of a nice 50/50, and an active southern stream with cold air close enough to help feed whatever comes across. Furthermore, I see quite a bit of evidence for alleutian troughing which should promote more west coast ridging (in some fashion) than is shown on the operationals. It wouldn't take much of a tweak to see the "actual" weather verify colder and potentially stormy with someone in the south/mid-south/southeast cashing in. In all honesty, I could see the entire trough buckling into the east and going negative tilt somewhere deep in the south as we move toward mid-month. JMO but I remain very optimistic (not just for my area, but others as well) Well, I honestly wouldn't mind being wrong (too late) with my timing. I see that the 18Z GFS has joined the12Z GFS' favorable pattern change party around midmonth. I still don't believe it as I think it is rushing changes ~1-2 weeks too quickly like it often does and like it did earlier this month a bunch of times. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yep, it sure is. On the brighter side, these 70º days are starting to grow on me. Some neosporin ointment can take care of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 0z NAM appears to bring a shot of snow to N GA in a couple days. Thoughts from the winter weather experts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 0z NAM appears to bring a shot of snow to N GA in a couple days. Thoughts from the winter weather experts?? They all packed up and left town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm happy as long as we don't start an early spring and then have a hard freeze at the middle-to-end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Some neosporin ointment can take care of that... I usually just smear some sunscreen on it and grab a fishing pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 0z NAM appears to bring a shot of snow to N GA in a couple days. Thoughts from the winter weather experts?? Yeah and the GFS shows the teaser as well. Thursday night the NGA mtns should see a few flurries with the arctic front. Then another front rolls through late Saturday and the small QPF is actually associated with a weak shortwave and frontal precip. Timing is not that great for us in far NGA as it would be late afternoon Saturday so it could just end up being sprinkles despite 850's below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah and the GFS shows the teaser as well. Thursday night the NGA mtns should see a few flurries with the arctic front. Then another front rolls through late Saturday and the small QPF is actually associated with a weak shortwave and frontal precip. Timing is not that great for us in far NGA as it would be late afternoon Saturday so it could just end up being sprinkles despite 850's below freezing. I won't be here so I'm sure y'all will get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well, I honestly wouldn't mind being wrong (too late) with my timing. I see that the 18Z GFS has joined the12Z GFS' favorable pattern change party around midmonth. I still don't believe it as I think it is rushing changes ~1-2 weeks too quickly like it often does and like it did earlier this month a bunch of times. We'll see. The 0Z Goofy is the 3rd Goofy run in a row to join the favorable pattern change party at midmonth. I still think it is rushing the pattern change by 1-2 weeks. We've seen this before with this model this winter. It likes to rush colder pattern changes. I'm still thinking late month before it would actually change. However, I wouldn't at all mind being wrong on the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Amazing how it was 70 earlier and its now 36 with wind and some sleet pellets falling from the sky. I've always remembered anytime we get a tornado or severe weather down here in January, it is normally followed by some type of wintry precip. Makes me wonder if Thursday Night and Saturday Night may turn out to be some snow showers in the area.... GFS shows some snow later tonight (flurries) and saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I had a patch of sn/ip virga go over just now. Radar saw it, but I couldn't quite make it out, try as I might I can say it is cold in that wind. This has been a great wind day. Hope the weekend chance holds on.....and the cold. Goofy has held on to the small chances for a number of runs now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 RAH last night is still discussion the potential of some light snow Saturday night. They even mentioned the possibility of lightining. That would be strange to get two systems within a few weeks that produce lightining. <clipped section for Saturday> FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT WILL STRETCHFROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS MO SATURDAY MORNING... WITH ANASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM IL TO SC. THE WARM FRONTWILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THESURFACE RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TOTHICKEN AND LOWER WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCEOF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NC. DESPITE THECLOUDS... THE ENSUING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOWTHICKNESSES AND TEMPS TO REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS OF 45-50. MODELS DEPICT A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JETMOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THEEVENING... COINCIDENT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPENINGMOISTURE FROM 850 MB UP BEYOND 500 MB... AND AHEAD OF A MID LEVELVORTICITY MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVETILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH NC. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD REMAINFAIRLY DRY HOWEVER... SO MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS LIKELY TOEVAPORATE/SUBLIMATE. GIVEN THAT THE WEB BULB PROFILE ON FORECASTSOUNDINGS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE DURING THISTIME IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND LIKELY JUST ABOVE FREEZING INTHE SOUTH... A COMBINATION OF LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES STILLAPPEARS REASONABLE. INTERESTING TO NOTE ARE THE GFS`S LAPSE RATESALOFT WHICH REACH 7.0 C/KM 800-500 MB SATURDAY NIGHT... SUGGESTINGTHAT IF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO AUGMENTINSTABILITY ALOFT... WE MAY SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IF THEGFS`S STRONGER VORTICITY MAX IS CORRECT. AT ANY RATE... WILL LEAVEIN A LOW CHANCE POP AREAWIDE FOR LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THENIGHT... BUT AGAIN EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN TRACE TO A COUPLE OFHUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AS THE SURFACE AIRREMAINS DRY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NVA INTHE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. LOWS 30-35. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Models have really backed off on the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gfs is still going for a split flow with a nice ridge over Alaska and nw Canada thanks to the Aleutian low. Looks like this could be the mjo doing its dirty work in the Pacific. Now, if we could just get the Atlantic to come on board with some blocking which we have not seen since Dec. The Pacific has been favorable imo since the beginning of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 0Z Goofy is the 3rd Goofy run in a row to join the favorable pattern change party at midmonth. I still think it is rushing the pattern change by 1-2 weeks. We've seen this before with this model this winter. It likes to rush colder pattern changes. I'm still thinking late month before it would actually change. However, I wouldn't at all mind being wrong on the timing. As February gets underway, by the time the first 5 days have eclipsed here in Greensboro we will be runining a couple degrees below normal for the young month. In fact if you go back to around Jan 18th or so we have been runing below normal with the exception of 2 seperate 48 hour periods of above normal. . Point is the pattern IMO has flipped for our climo to normal temp wise. It's not uncommon to see swings where you get days mixed in weighted heavily toward negative or posotive mean temps. I think also qpf wise everyone in the SE is above for January. Snowfall is another story of course. GSO 18 43 27 35 -4 19 49 25 37 -2 20 60 33 47 8 21 57 28 43 4 22 38 23 31 -8 23 41 19 30 -9 24 37 23 30 -9 25 25 21 23 -16 26 39 22 31 -8 27 40 24 32 -7 28 48 33 41 1 29 71 44 58 18 30 72 57 65 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX262 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z GFS a bit colder then prior runs. Continues to show light precip Sat night into Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Huh? You can't be serious? Stop trolling Do you have anything to back that up? Gfs is still going for a split flow with a nice ridge over Alaska and nw Canada thanks to the Aleutian low. Looks like this could be the mjo doing its dirty work in the Pacific. Now, if we could just get the Atlantic to come on board with some blocking which we have not seen since Dec. The Pacific has been favorable imo since the beginning of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Huh? You can't be serious? Stop trolling Do you have anything to back that up? While the pna was strongly - and the epo+ in late Nov and early Dec we torched. Towards the end of the month the pna has mostly been+ with a -epo here and there. Nothing even close to the death vortex we saw last winter. Also the nao had a brief 2 week period where is was a -west based. But since then it has mostly been + or very east based and weak. Here are the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 While the pna was strongly - and the epo+ in late Nov and early Dec we torched. Towards the end of the month the pna has mostly been+ with a -epo here and there. Nothing even close to the death vortex we saw last winter. Also the nao had a brief 2 week period where is was a -west based. But since then it has mostly been + or very east based and weak. Here are the charts. Even with a +PNA, wouldn't a hyper active flow still cause the problems we have endured? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Even with a +PNA, wouldn't a hyper active flow still cause the problems we have endured? It could, again. This was IMHO. I don't think the Pacific has been that terrible. Could it have been better? Of course. But we have had a basically +nao since Christmas. The cold shots have not been able to lock in as well as the vortex that dropped in and lifted out very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Going forward this is what the GFS wants to do with the npac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.