Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not exactly. While most got the screw, had their been "slight" adjustments of the cold air some would have cashed in. I think there is more to it. This winter could have performed for some with those factors. Other than a well-timed event, what other factors should one look for to offer hope of a sustained cold pattern? All the things we usually look for didn't/don't seem to be working out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So here's a question, if going into winter, we see a -PDO and any sort of Nina, should we pretty much write off a generally favorable winter and expect what we've gotten the past 2 years? I'm seriously asking because it seems the alignment of those two features have destroyed the last two winters in the face of anything else that might have presented itself to be favorable. The PDO will remain negative likely for the next 10-15 years but that doesn't mean you can't have cold/snowy winters at times in the SE. With the AMO warm (but going cold in the next 5-10 years) the combo does not give us great winters by and large in the SE, especially in the early years of a -PDO (like the 1950's), As the PDO matures it becomes more likely (like the 60's/70's) for us to have some nice snowy winters with the occasional great ones that occured during those decades. Add to that the fact that the AMO will go negative soon and we could have a string of incredible winters in the next 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 The PDO will remain negative likely for the next 10-15 years but that doesn't mean you can't have cold/snowy winters at times in the SE. With the AMO warm (but going cold in the next 5-10 years) the combo does not give us great winters by and large in the SE, especially in the early years of a -PDO (like the 1950's), As the PDO matures it becomes more likely (like the 60's/70's) for us to have some nice snowy winters with the occasional great ones that occured during those decades. Add to that the fact that the AMO will go negative soon and we could have a string of incredible winters in the next 5-10 years. That's definitely a good point about early vs. mature PDOs. The one thing I thought about the AMO is that doesn't a +AMO promote more blocking? I guess you can't argue with how things have historically played out with a -PDO/AMO combo. Then we have a period of low solar activity coming up, along with a magnetic pole shift. So does that play in as well? Who knows. But a lot of smart people showed a cooler than normal winter, which will likely bust. So it may make sense to go warm for the next several years, at least until the -PDO matures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The PDO will remain negative likely for the next 10-15 years but that doesn't mean you can't have cold/snowy winters at times in the SE. With the AMO warm (but going cold in the next 5-10 years) the combo does not give us great winters by and large in the SE, especially in the early years of a -PDO (like the 1950's), As the PDO matures it becomes more likely (like the 60's/70's) for us to have some nice snowy winters with the occasional great ones that occured during those decades. Add to that the fact that the AMO will go negative soon and we could have a string of incredible winters in the next 5-10 years. I also was looking at some research about 10 years ago that in the SE U.S. including the states of SC/GA/TN/AL/MS/AR the snowiest winters tend to coincide with the inactive phase of the Atlantic hurricane season (last one ran from about 1969-1994). You could throw that in there as sort of another knock against snowy winters right now since we're about 20 years into the active phase and will likely be coming out of it in the next 10 years if you look back at history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It hit 90 in Corpus in early January http://www.caller.com/news/2013/jan/29/corpus-christi-reaches-90-degrees-jan-4th-time/ When you've seen as many winters as I have you learn at least two things. Winter isn't over until it's over, and then it may not be over. It usually stops being really cold in April most years, but I've seen some below normal May days....cold is relative to averages. And...models are only good for a few days out, on average, over time, for specifics. For all sciences attempts to nail done Mother Nature, she seems to squirm a lot. So nothing is written in stone, especially when it's still Jan. But, hey, that's just me, and I know that all the cliff jumpers don't affect the weather, any more than those of us who wait until April. Nature does what nature does, and mostly that is to make fools out of science, and models, and modelers, and model readers/prognosticators of every stripe. I have yet to see anyone, with interest in weather, that hasn't been made a fool by that which they study, lol. And, I kind of think that's partly why we like weather so...it's unpredictable. That said, I haven't had a below freezing high in over 3 years, so I am entering a new rhelm of true cold lacking winter weather, and I don't have a clue if it will get worse before it gets better, or better before it gets worse...but I believe things have changed some, and I wouldn't be surprised to see sleet in June before I die, any more than upper 80's in Jan. would be a surprise. But that's kind of cool, in an end of the world we are used to kind of way, lol. I can say the mosquito's have been terrible lately, but also know I could be doing an ice worm study in the winters to come. It's weather...it changes...thank goodness...hope it stays that way!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Strong vort max heading (clipper) rounding the base of the trough Saturday night looks to give east Tn and the mountains of NC a good thump of snow. I'm not sure if anything will make it over the mountains this time around but its worth taking a closer look each model run. it' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Higher upslope areas are gonna get 8-12 inches from Friday and Sunday events combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So here's a question, if going into winter, we see a -PDO and any sort of Nina, should we pretty much write off a generally favorable winter and expect what we've gotten the past 2 years? I'm seriously asking because it seems the alignment of those two features have destroyed the last two winters in the face of anything else that might have presented itself to be favorable. It is never that black and white. Moderate to strong La Nina winters are often mild. Some of the best winters have been during a -PDO regime when the PDO temporarily flips to +PDO for the winter. Some winters that keep a moderate -PDO but have a solid -NAO have been quite cold. The recipe for the best combo for the best chances for a very cold winter in the SE is WEAK El Nino (especially those immediately following La Nina), +PDO (which could be during a -PDO regime as stated above), and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS is getting real interesting for Saturday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS is getting real interesting for Saturday night! The precip dries up in the following frames. Perhaps some weak coastal redevelopment but very weak and offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Agree, but the trend at 500 has been for a stronger vortmax. It is also digging more before heading east over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This winter is worse than last winter, at least here in Georgia. I'm beginning to think this may be the new normal as far as winters are concerned. It could get to the point where our winters are similar to what Florida winters are like and snow becomes unheard of for cities like Atlanta. Well then, after the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 winters, were you then thinking that winters like those two could be the new normal? We've just had two in a row, well not even two in a row yet because this one could be long from being over yet. I've seen more than two in a row here in the upstate of SC where we didn't get any snow to speak of, so don't hang your hopes, or should I say fears on just two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Even in last years pathetic winter we at least managed to get arctic air into the Deep South. My lowest temp I recorded last winter was 13. My coldest so far this winter is 26. In my 15 years of keeping weather records I've been at least as cold as 14 every single winter. Atlanta hasn't even had a hard freeze yet! They've barely made it below freezing ! I joked before and asked is it possible for Atlanta to go an entire winter without having a freeze. I'm starting to think that may actually be a possibility in the future. Yeah, granted we haven't had any real arctic outbreaks this winter so far, but it was 26 degrees here in the upstate of SC all day long just last Friday, and that's pretty darn cold for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Even in last years pathetic winter we at least managed to get arctic air into the Deep South. My lowest temp I recorded last winter was 13. My coldest so far this winter is 26. In my 15 years of keeping weather records I've been at least as cold as 14 every single winter. Atlanta hasn't even had a hard freeze yet! They've barely made it below freezing ! I joked before and asked is it possible for Atlanta to go an entire winter without having a freeze. I'm starting to think that may actually be a possibility in the future. Yeah anything's possible. A few years ago Atlanta went the whole month of July and never even broke 90 degrees. so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The PDO will remain negative likely for the next 10-15 years but that doesn't mean you can't have cold/snowy winters at times in the SE. With the AMO warm (but going cold in the next 5-10 years) the combo does not give us great winters by and large in the SE, especially in the early years of a -PDO (like the 1950's), As the PDO matures it becomes more likely (like the 60's/70's) for us to have some nice snowy winters with the occasional great ones that occured during those decades. Add to that the fact that the AMO will go negative soon and we could have a string of incredible winters in the next 5-10 years. I only wish we could get back to winters like, as JB said a couple of years ago, "the great winters of the '60's and '70's." I grew up in the '60's and '70's and I don't think we had even ONE winter from 1960 till 1973 that we didn't get at least one big snowstorm here in the upstate of SC. And that's not even counting the ice storms we got during those years too. And we had COLD winters back then. I can remember walking out on our swimming pool in the mid or late '60's and jumping up and down and you couldn't even crack the ice, it was so thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not that today's 12Z GFS hour 384 map is worth anything, but that's the kind of thing I could see, based on analogs, showing up and reflecting reality about two weeks later than the date this run represents. Not even close to set in stone, but a reasonable hope for ~four weeks from now and perhaps even a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not that today's 12Z GFS hour 384 map is worth anything, but that's the kind of thing I could see, based on analogs, showing up and reflecting reality about two weeks later than the date this run represents. Not even close to set in stone, but a reasonable hope for ~four weeks from now and perhaps even a little earlier. The 12z gfs highly amplified pattern just screams "big dog" for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not that today's 12Z GFS hour 384 map is worth anything, but that's the kind of thing I could see, based on analogs, showing up and reflecting reality about two weeks later than the date this run represents. Not even close to set in stone, but a reasonable hope for ~four weeks from now and perhaps even a little earlier. Yeah, when I saw the setup on the 384 gfs I thought of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah, granted we haven't had any real arctic outbreaks this winter so far, but it was 26 degrees here in the upstate of SC all day long just last Friday, and that's pretty darn cold for us. That's been striking to me...the lack of daytime cold down this way. Ga. is just getting drive by cold, and not a direct plunge. I get cold at night, but the days warm right up. Not a deep enough penetration of cold to give me a good cold day like you've gotten, and that's always an important part of winter to me. The cold, cold days to help enjoy the outdoors all the more Like late in the weekend..it will take the moisture arriving at night to have a chance for frozen down this way, while Tenn. will be in the cat bird seat. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry, I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree here, but I don't think we have to wait till the end of the month for a more widespread winter storm potential. I am targeting sometime b/w the 10th and 20th of February. To me it looks like we will have some sort of blocking building around the 8th or 9th (even if east based initially, hints of a nice 50/50, and an active southern stream with cold air close enough to help feed whatever comes across. Furthermore, I see quite a bit of evidence for alleutian troughing which should promote more west coast ridging (in some fashion) than is shown on the operationals. It wouldn't take much of a tweak to see the "actual" weather verify colder and potentially stormy with someone in the south/mid-south/southeast cashing in. In all honesty, I could see the entire trough buckling into the east and going negative tilt somewhere deep in the south as we move toward mid-month. JMO but I remain very optimistic (not just for my area, but others as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It hit 90 in Corpus in early January http://www.caller.com/news/2013/jan/29/corpus-christi-reaches-90-degrees-jan-4th-time/ And all those 90's within the last 50 years. Now's when I wish the cave men had kept better weather records, lol. so we could see if this is a one off, or a cycle T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry, I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree here, but I don't think we have to wait till the end of the month for a more widespread winter storm potential. I am targeting sometime b/w the 10th and 20th of February. To me it looks like we will have some sort of blocking building around the 8th or 9th (even if east based initially, hints of a nice 50/50, and an active southern stream with cold air close enough to help feed whatever comes across. Furthermore, I see quite a bit of evidence for alleutian troughing which should promote more west coast ridging (in some fashion) than is shown on the operationals. It wouldn't take much of a tweak to see the "actual" weather verify colder and potentially stormy with someone in the south/mid-south/southeast cashing in. In all honesty, I could see the entire trough buckling into the east and going negative tilt somewhere deep in the south as we move toward mid-month. JMO but I remain very optimistic (not just for my area, but others as well) The GFs ensembles continue to look good in the 10-15 day range. This has been showing up on the last few ensemble runs. I see the op got on board at 12z with the ridge out west. 12z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think you will start seeing the operationals come around to showing the possibilities in the coming 3-4 days and the look of the -NAO to move closer to reality as currently depicted on the 0z Euro. It will be interesting to see if the period of the 10th through the 20th provides anything substantial. I am more excited about that time period than I am the potential from the clipper this weekend............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yes, as TN said, Euro has been very consistent in showing a nice -nao developing about 8 days out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z Euro does spit out some snow for east TN, but looks to have decreased in coverage a little from prior runs. Perhaps 1-2 inches? Looks dry once crossing the mountains unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What time period are you speaking of? From RW's site it looked interesting between 72-96 (lp off of mid atlantic) and then again at 192 (CAD). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yes, as TN said, Euro has been very consistent in showing a nice -nao developing about 8 days out. TW One thing to point out here is that the -NAO that the Euro has been sort of advertising is more of a N. Atlantic thumb ridge, as opposed to the type of west-based -NAO that helps us. Plus, it seems to show up and make us think it will evolve into a west-based -NAO, but it ends up transient and vanishes again. And right on queue, the 12Z shows no sign of it. But make a good point with the CAD potential around 192. That's a pretty good signal there. I can't tell if there's any precip to go with it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the gfs ensembles are colder than the op and gfs mean. and the euro has cooled from the start to the end of the run from a few days ago when it really warmed things up.... and they all show some sort of ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z Euro continues to trend wetter for East TN's Saturday night clipper action. Now showing about 4 inches for TRI. Surface temps are more marginal at TYS and a little less QPF. This might be a fun little event. Edit: Apparently I'm a dumbarse and unable use the edit function. Sorry about the self quote ass-hattery. Hopefully cleaned up now. Carry on. (stupid tablets) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Day 8-10 Euro pretty ugly -- --NAO disappearing. Marginal ridging out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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