January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[packbacker]

Not sure I would call it a big ridge, yes + anomalies but lets leave it at that. See the northern Atlantic off the southern tip of Greenland for some + significants. Pattern change, call it what you will, mean storm track after day 7 is through the Plains or TN Valley, going to have to wait for any potential threats in our neck of the woods. Expect perturbations to continue, mojo doing a full circle from 8 briefly back in to phase 7? Hopefully we start to see a setup favorable for suppressed tracks, may take a miracle, just goes to show us how fortunate we were in 09-10 and 10-11!

I can't see the 11-15 day Euro ENS mean, so just going by what he said, you have access to those? They don't look good day 10 so from what Allan said the 11-15 day looked worse.

[NCSNOW]

0z nam shows some .20-.25 in the favorite mtn upslope Friday with most likely some decent ratios. Looks to me like warning criteria may be met. Same areas should fare well on Sunday as well. If you got gas in the tank and greenbacks in your pocket it should be an excellent weekend up at the slopes.

[metalicwx366]

People think that 2009-10 and 2010-11 is what should be expected every winter in the SE.

[franklin NCwx]

I can't see the 11-15 day Euro ENS mean, so just going by what he said, you have access to those? They don't look good day 10 so from what Allan said the 11-15 day looked worse.

I only have 2m temps but they are above normal like two or three. Not a torch but above normal. Wish I had 500.

[franklin NCwx]

People think that 2009-10 and 2010-11 is what should be expected every winter in the SE.

some do not all.

[ncwinterwxman]

People think that 2009-10 and 2010-11 is what should be expected every winter in the SE.

 

I agree 100 %.  We were spoiled those winters for sure.

[packbacker]

People think that 2009-10 and 2010-11 is what should be expected every winter in the SE.

They are about as normal as this winter and last winter.

[franklin NCwx]

I agree 100 %. We were spoiled those winters for sure.

2010-11 was not a great winter as a whole. It was just a great 6 week stretch that started in dec and ended in mid Jan. After that winter sucked. 09-10 was great from beginning to end.

[packbacker]

I only have 2m temps but they are above normal like two or three. Not a torch but above normal. Wish I had 500.

Well for central NC that would be temps in the upper 50's.

[superjames1992]

We can get a winter storm in an unfavorable pattern.  Sure, it will require threading the needle, but it can happen, so there's no need to cliff-dive.  We have a chance this Friday for a little something, for God's sake, and people are jumping off of cliffs already?

[WeatherNC]

2010-11 was not a great winter as a whole. It was just a great 6 week stretch that started in dec and ended in mid Jan. After that winter sucked. 09-10 was great from beginning to end.

Great 6 week stretch vs 1-2 week favorable clippers, I'll take the stretch, lock in the blocking with a vortex over SE Canada for a month and a half, vs these transient shots, with a pesky surface low over the Great Lakes.

[metalicwx366]

When it snows in Florida, you know it's a great winter.

[packbacker]

We can get a winter storm in an unfavorable pattern.  Sure, it will require threading the needle, but it can happen, so there's no need to cliff-dive.  We have a chance this Friday for a little something, for God's sake, and people are jumping off of cliffs already?

You got 4" snow a couple a weeks ago? Cities that haven't had a 4" snow this winter and probably last winter...DC, NY, Philly, Baltimore. You were extremely lucky to get a 4" snow. I bet alot of Mass haven't had a 4" snow since Sandy. Crappy pattern and very difficult to get a snow event.

[ncwinterwxman]

I would take "just a great 6 week stretch" that starts in Feb and ends in mid march at this point...are you kidding?  But is it going to happen?  Nope

2010-11 was not a great winter as a whole. It was just a great 6 week stretch that started in dec and ended in mid Jan. After that winter sucked. 09-10 was great from beginning to end.

[superjames1992]

You got 4" snow a couple a weeks ago? Cities that haven't had a 4" snow this winter and probably last winter...DC, NY, Philly, Baltimore. You were extremely lucky to get a 4" snow. I bet alot of Mass haven't had a 4" snow since Sandy. Crappy pattern and very difficult to get a snow event.

 

I got 3.5", but with lost power, it wasn't all that fun.

 

But still, it goes to show that you can never really count anything out considering we're beating out a lot of climatologically favored cities in the snowfall department right now.  You just need the right ingredients to come together and you can get something, even in a bad pattern!

 

Last year, on the other hand, was an unmitigated disaster, aside from the little surprise event we got in late February.

[packbacker]

I got 3.5", but with lost power, it wasn't all that fun.

But still, it goes to show that you can never really count anything out considering we're beating out a lot of climatologically favored cities in the snowfall department right now. You just need the right ingredients to come together and you can get something, even in a bad pattern!

Last year, on the other hand, was an unmitigated disaster, aside from the little surprise event we got in late February.

Only 3.5" :-)

We might lose power tomorrow too!

I haven't seen 3.5" of snow since 2010....heck I haven't seen over an inch since 2010. :-(

[superjames1992]

Only 3.5" :-)

We might lose power tomorrow too!

I haven't seen 3.5" of snow since 2010....heck I haven't seen over an inch since 2010. :-(

 

If it were during the day, the lost power wouldn't have been a big deal, but it's kind of hard to enjoy watching the snow fall when you can't actually see the snow!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

This winter is worse than last winter, at least here in Georgia. I'm beginning to think this may be the new normal as far as winters are concerned. It could get to the point where our winters are similar to what Florida winters are like and snow becomes unheard of for cities like Atlanta.

[rduwx]

This winter is worse than last winter, at least here in Georgia. I'm beginning to think this may be the new normal as far as winters are concerned. It could get to the point where our winters are similar to what Florida winters are like and snow becomes unheard of for cities like Atlanta.

 

I know for myself last winter was worse.  I've been on these boards for the past 8 years and never remember not having a storm to track until last year.  Don't get me wrong, this winter has sucked but I still don't think it was as bad as last winter.

[superjames1992]

I'm noticing that the Hi-Res NAM is a bit more beefy with the clipper on Friday and actually holds it together a little bit over the mountains and into NC.  It's not much, but it's something.

 

It definitely looks like this system could be a significant snow maker in the NC mountains and produce a light snowfall throughout much of TN.

 

FWIW, 0z GFS in the long range looks awful.  There's nothing even close to wintry weather after the clipper.

 

EDIT: Oh, the GFS might have a fantasy storm setting up at hr 384, but I'm not too sure.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I know for myself last winter was worse. I've been on these boards for the past 8 years and never remember not having a storm to track until last year. Don't get me wrong, this winter has sucked but I still don't think it was as bad as last winter.

Here in Georgia we've actually had storms to track, unlike last winter. But I'm not sure if that makes this winter better or worse than last winter, since we haven't got anything out of those storms. Is it better to have something to track and constantly getting left with nothing or having nothing to track at all?. I'm not sure. In either scenario we are left with the same result.

[GaWx]

Larry, are those years the analogs you are using, or are there others?

 

 Those are the two best matching winter analogs, but there were also another four winters that are usable to a lesser extent that showed similar tendencies late in the winter.. 

[valkhorn]

All this negativity and yet the last few operational runs of the GFS have given east TN a few rounds of snow showers with light accumulations over the next 15 days.

 

I guess if it doesn't snow in your backyard, winter's cancelled.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

People think that 2009-10 and 2010-11 is what should be expected every winter in the SE.

I don't think people think every winter should be like those 2 winters just like I don't think people think winters should be like this winter and last winter in the SE. It should be somewhere in between. It's like we have one extreme or the other lately. Either we have a cold, snowy winter or the complete opposite. I wish we could just go back to normal winters. Whatever that means.

[jburns]

I don't think people think every winter should be like those 2 winters just like I don't think people think winters should be like this winter and last winter in the SE. It should be somewhere in between. It's like we have one extreme or the other lately. Either we have a cold, snowy winter or the complete opposite. I wish we could just go back to normal winters. Whatever that means.

This is normal.  Not this year by itself but take the last the last five and do the averages.  You have some good and some not good. Over time they average out to normal.  Normal is an average over time not a single year.  

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Even in last years pathetic winter we at least managed to get arctic air into the Deep South. My lowest temp I recorded last winter was 13. My coldest so far this winter is 26. In my 15 years of keeping weather records I've been at least as cold as 14 every single winter. Atlanta hasn't even had a hard freeze yet! They've barely made it below freezing ! I joked before and asked is it possible for Atlanta to go an entire winter without having a freeze. I'm starting to think that may actually be a possibility in the future.

[FallsLake]

It's not much, but last night's RAH discussion does talk about the up coming clippers:

 

<last part of short term discussion>

... SO ANYTHING THAT FALLS IS LIKELY
TO SUBLIMATE AND SHOULD CULMINATE IN LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF FLURRY
AFTER 3 AM. LOWS 27-32.

FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: THE RISK OF A FLURRY IS LIKELY TO STRETCH
INTO FRIDAY MORNING... UNTIL THE REINFORCING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
EXITS TO OUR EAST TOWARD MIDDAY. FALLING THICKNESSES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND A DRYING DOWNSLOPE NWRLY 850 MB FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
CHILLY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS THE MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
WITH DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. WITH INCOMING 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR -12C AND THICKNESSES DROPPING UNDER 1270 METERS... TEMPS IN
THE NORTH SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 (AS WAS THE CASE ON JAN 26/27
WHEN OBSERVED THICKNESSES WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE PREDICTED FOR
FRIDAY)... SO HAVE CUT BACK HIGHS AROUND A CATEGORY... TO 37-46 NW
TO SE... NOT AT ALL UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FRIGID
TEMPS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCOMING AIR MASS (ALTHOUGH IT
WILL OF COURSE MODIFY TO SOME DEGREE). THE POLAR HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AT 22-27 FRIDAY NIGHT...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH TWO
NOTABLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. THE FIRST... EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (A TIMING THAT IS WELL
AGREED UPON BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF)... IS STILL APT TO PRODUCE
A QUICK SHOT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AS MODELS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTENING
800-400 MB WITH BRIEFLY STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY
OF COLD AIR ALOFT INCLUDING WELL INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT.
BUT THE LOWEST 5 KFT SHOULD STILL BE RATHER DRY AS OFTEN TYPIFIES AN
AIR MASS PRECEDING SUCH A CLIPPER. THUS... IT SHOULD BE A BRIEF
EVENT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT... BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR AS
THIS TIME DRAWS CLOSER. THE NEXT POLAR STREAM WAVE SHOULD COME
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION AS A DAMPENED FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MARKEDLY REGARDING THE TIMING...
AND IN ANY CASE THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF ANY MOISTURE WOULD BE
GREATLY IN QUESTION. WILL LEAVE SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NO PRECIP AT THIS TIME. MODEL THICKNESSES VARY FROM DAY TO DAY
BUT GENERALLY SHOW A RECOVERY CLOSER TO NORMAL... WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. -GIH

&&

 

[Cold Rain]

All this negativity and yet the last few operational runs of the GFS have given east TN a few rounds of snow showers with light accumulations over the next 15 days.

I guess if it doesn't snow in your backyard, winter's cancelled.

No offense, but one small area of the entire region that has only a few posters is not enough to offset the disappointment everywhere else. And yeah, if it doesn't snow imby, winter sucks.

But you are correct, eastern TN and the upslope areas definitely have something to look forward to.

[Cold Rain]

So here's a question, if going into winter, we see a -PDO and any sort of Nina, should we pretty much write off a generally favorable winter and expect what we've gotten the past 2 years?

I'm seriously asking because it seems the alignment of those two features have destroyed the last two winters in the face of anything else that might have presented itself to be favorable.

[WilkesboroDude]

So here's a question, if going into winter, we see a -PDO and any sort of Nina, should we pretty much write off a generally favorable winter and expect what we've gotten the past 2 years?

I'm seriously asking because it seems the alignment of those two features have destroyed the last two winters in the face of anything else that might have presented itself to be favorable.

 

Not exactly. While most got the screw, had their been "slight" adjustments of the cold air some would have cashed in. I think there is more to it. This winter could have performed for some with those factors.