Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Conservative MRX has snow showers in my forecast 3 times over the next 7 days. I'll take the nickels and dimes, thanks. Sorry for you guys that have missed out so far in the deeper south. Winter might indeed be over, but to say so in friggin January based on computer models is straight up bittercasting. But whatever, deal with it how you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All signs point to any hope of prolonged cold and snow being over for the SE. Anything other than this statement is bordering on wishcasting. We can hope we squeeze something in towards the end of feb and first of march but time is running out on us fast with nothing to hang our hat on moving forward. What is your reasoning behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What is your reasoning behind this? Every model known to the met world and a calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What is your reasoning behind this? Every model known to the met world and a calendar. First world problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well I can officially say this winter was better than last winter so far. I got a few lousy sleet pellets out of last winter. At least this one we got a nice sleet/ZR storm (well nice in the fact it didn't cripple the city) and some very light snow with the ULL that couldn't really produce. That said it hasn't been a good winter and models do not look well. Just remember last year though that the storm that produced for RDU and areas north of 40 in Feb came kind of out of nowhere. So we can still get a good one or two storms this month. I still think next week we might see a little surprise if we can keep the temps at least border line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All signs point to any hope of prolonged cold and snow being over for the SE. Anything other than this statement is bordering on wishcasting. We can hope we squeeze something in towards the end of feb and first of march but time is running out on us fast with nothing to hang our hat on moving forward. Here in western NC, our winter weather chances do not end until April........ It's still January for Christ's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Winter.. Over!!! "It's never over!!!! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!!! " back OT... Was this much snow expected on the back side of this storm? Midwest looks to get a nice amount... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All signs point to any hope of prolonged cold and snow being over for the SE. Anything other than this statement is bordering on wishcasting. We can hope we squeeze something in towards the end of feb and first of march but time is running out on us fast with nothing to hang our hat on moving forward. Come on, Marietta. Models have been historically wrong outside 3+ days quite often. There's no way I'm trusting everything they say right now either. Yeah, it does kinda stink to be in GA if you want to have better chances of winter weather. Climo is definitely always better for me than you, but not by much. And, I can't believe you want to cancel winter for everybody at the end of January. Nobody is wishcasting a storm. And please don't lump my (and that of others) optimism into the category of wishcasting. I just refuse to see it as fait accompli that there will be no more winter weather for the SE this season. To borrow your phrase (and fix it): Anything other than this statement is bordering on bittercasting. As I said before, I'll cancel winter at the appropriate time: when the calendar rolls around to April. And, it does not make me a wishcaster if I refuse to follow the rest of the lemmings over the cliff. It just makes me an independent thinker who's content to wait and see what happens rather than pretend that I know for certain how it will all play out. I may not see any more winter weather, but I can't grade that test with confidence until the weather has all played out over the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Here in western NC, our winter weather chances do not end until April........ It's still January for Christ's sake. HERE HERE no giving up. Quoting Jimmy V NEVER GIVE UP !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just to clarify I didn't cancel winter. I said there isn't much hope of a period of prolonged cold and snow left this winter and I stand by that 100%. When everything we have to forecast with says no.... I'm going to buy it. I also in no spot in my last post said we would'nt see snow again this season. It's mighty touchy in here. Calc I loved your post fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The way I look at it is that everything said yes and we got nothing, so I'm banking on everything saying no and we get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The way I look at it is that everything said yes and we got nothing, so I'm banking on everything saying no and we get something. Come on steve... everything didn't say yes. The pacific has been horrible and blocking hasn't really even showed up on the models this year in any meaningful form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Anyone betting the "streak" has a really good chance to be right and the streak hasn't been good. However, with that said.............I am not buying the operationals at this point. Why would I? With the MJO projected (yes, I am buying this - kind of hypocritical huh?) to head through phase 1 and 2 I think the best is still ahead of us. After we warm toward the 10th, i think we will see a -NAO(hinted at by the Euro beginning around day 8) try and set up to go along with split flow. Maybe it's just the way I was raised, but I don't give up easily. Even if all of what I envision doesn't happen, we can still try to cash in on an ULL dump. It doesn't have to be historically cold this time of the year to produce. We just need much better timing (something that has been sorely lacking the last two years). I know saying you are "due" is overused, but what the heck..............We are due! All JMO. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro is starting to show a good -nao starting to creep into range. Still a week or so away, but it has been showing up the last 4 or 5 runs. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro is starting to show a good -nao starting to creep into range. Still a week or so away, but it has been showing up the last 4 or 5 runs. What does this mean? See my above post. lol. All kidding aside its a reason to remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This will be the fourth consecutive Friday where winter precip has fallen in the mountains. 20% chance in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This is what RaleighWx had to say about the 11-15 day Euro ENS....You can see it starting looking at the day 10 height anomalies....And for the record I agree the models have been bad for day 5-7 specific storms but the general pattern give or take a day or two has been relatively good. We can ride the GaWx train until the end of February, he has done a ton research on this and it sounds promising. 12z Euro ENS is warm for the 11-15 day period. Vortex over Bering Sea, trough in southwest, big ridge over eastern 1/2 of US. Winter Over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just take em one precip event at a time. That's the best way to approach the last 6 weeks. If its cold enough when one is getting ready to roll into town then be content,enjoy it and start looking forward to next winter after it melts. This method of looking for the pattern to become more favorable is fruitless so long as the streak(2 years and counting) is playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yep. Didn't see it. Great minds think alike. Not giving up hope either. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That has been my point all day +1...yea...nerves are on edge in here...weenies haven't seen a 2-4 or 3-6" event in two winters so they are ready to commit weenie suicide...but not me...I'm just saying that chances are decreasing rapidly...not saying that a surprise storm can't happen...just that it is becoming less and less likely now based on all the METEOROLOGY that I am seeing...NOT climatology nonsense or anything like that...there appear to be NO PHYSICAL mechanisms on the horizon to get cold south for more than a day or two at a time as has been the case all winter long...why would that change now? Good post! Just to clarify I didn't cancel winter. I said there isn't much hope of a period of prolonged cold and snow left this winter and I stand by that 100%. When everything we have to forecast with says no.... I'm going to buy it.I also in no spot in my last post said we would'nt see snow again this season. It's mighty touchy in here. Calc I loved your post fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No offense to GaWx as he has indeed done some EXCELLENT research on this topic and special kudos go to him for that. Maybe RaleighWx can come in and post some stuff about central NC late Feb/early March climo stats. HOWEVER...my point is that climatology is NOT a physical mechanism to get cold in the southeast in late Feb/early March. It's just not. Sorry. This is what RaleighWx had to say about the 11-15 day Euro ENS....You can see it starting looking at the day 10 height anomalies....And for the record I agree the models have been bad for day 5-7 specific storms but the general pattern give or take a day or two has been relatively good. We can ride the GaWx train until the end of February, he has done a ton research on this and it sounds promising.12z Euro ENS is warm for the 11-15 day period. Vortex over Bering Sea, trough in southwest, big ridge over eastern 1/2 of US. Winter Over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No one is talking about your backyard...we're talking about the southeast in general Here in western NC, our winter weather chances do not end until April........ It's still January for Christ's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No offense to GaWx as he has indeed done some EXCELLENT research on this topic and special kudos go to him for that. Maybe RaleighWx can come in and post some stuff about central NC late Feb/early March climo stats. HOWEVER...my point is that climatology is NOT a physical mechanism to get cold in the southeast in late Feb/early March. It's just not. Sorry.so you no longer like the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No offense to GaWx as he has indeed done some EXCELLENT research on this topic and special kudos go to him for that. Maybe RaleighWx can come in and post some stuff about central NC late Feb/early March climo stats. HOWEVER...my point is that climatology is NOT a physical mechanism to get cold in the southeast in late Feb/early March. It's just not. Sorry. I agree with you, we could see in early December that we lost the neutral positive Nino to a weak negative Nina and on top of that we had the -PDO so we could see early on there was never going to be a prolonged cold/storm period in the east and that's just what happened. Heaven forbid someone mentions this as it causes an uproar. This winter is a little better than last winter, which isn't saying a whole lot. We got a 7 day period in January and got lucky with a couple of minor events and that's probably our best hope for Feb sometime. Good news is that we are going to have back to back crappy winters so next winter should be better, much better on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 As others have said, the mjo is just one piece of the puzzle. We'll see if it can change the pattern but I am beginning to have my doubts. so you no longer like the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That has been my point all day +1...yea...nerves are on edge in here...weenies haven't seen a 2-4 or 3-6" event in two winters so they are ready to commit weenie suicide...but not me...I'm just saying that chances are decreasing rapidly...not saying that a surprise storm can't happen...just that it is becoming less and less likely now based on all the METEOROLOGY that I am seeing...NOT climatology nonsense or anything like that...there appear to be NO PHYSICAL mechanisms on the horizon to get cold south for more than a day or two at a time as has been the case all winter long...why would that change now? Good post! ncwinterwxman, Thanks for the kudos in your other post about my climo research. Regarding climo, here's one way to look at it. Back in 1889-90 and 1931-2: had you been alive then and following wx, you likely would have said the same thing at this point and even well into Feb. in those winters as Dec., Jan., and Feb. were all mild. There apparently were then no physical mechanisms to get cold south for more than a few days at a time through much of Feb. Yet, despite that, those March's were all solidly below normal and had some wintry precip. in Atlanta. The physical mechanisms did, indeed, finally change. That's the idea of following these and other analog winters. What wouldn't occur for much of the winter finally did at the end. There is reasonable hope that that will again happen in 2012-3. So, climo, itself, isn't a mechanism. However, it reflects on the change in the mechanism in similar winters as winter got into its late stages. Does this explanation of how I look at climo make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 When you've seen as many winters as I have you learn at least two things. Winter isn't over until it's over, and then it may not be over. It usually stops being really cold in April most years, but I've seen some below normal May days....cold is relative to averages. And...models are only good for a few days out, on average, over time, for specifics. For all sciences attempts to nail done Mother Nature, she seems to squirm a lot. So nothing is written in stone, especially when it's still Jan. But, hey, that's just me, and I know that all the cliff jumpers don't affect the weather, any more than those of us who wait until April. Nature does what nature does, and mostly that is to make fools out of science, and models, and modelers, and model readers/prognosticators of every stripe. I have yet to see anyone, with interest in weather, that hasn't been made a fool by that which they study, lol. And, I kind of think that's partly why we like weather so...it's unpredictable. That said, I haven't had a below freezing high in over 3 years, so I am entering a new rhelm of true cold lacking winter weather, and I don't have a clue if it will get worse before it gets better, or better before it gets worse...but I believe things have changed some, and I wouldn't be surprised to see sleet in June before I die, any more than upper 80's in Jan. would be a surprise. But that's kind of cool, in an end of the world we are used to kind of way, lol. I can say the mosquito's have been terrible lately, but also know I could be doing an ice worm study in the winters to come. It's weather...it changes...thank goodness...hope it stays that way!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This is what RaleighWx had to say about the 11-15 day Euro ENS....You can see it starting looking at the day 10 height anomalies....And for the record I agree the models have been bad for day 5-7 specific storms but the general pattern give or take a day or two has been relatively good. We can ride the GaWx train until the end of February, he has done a ton research on this and it sounds promising. 12z Euro ENS is warm for the 11-15 day period. Vortex over Bering Sea, trough in southwest, big ridge over eastern 1/2 of US. Winter Over? ] Not sure I would call it a big ridge, yes + anomalies but lets leave it at that. See the northern Atlantic off the southern tip of Greenland for some + significants. Pattern change, call it what you will, mean storm track after day 7 is through the Plains or TN Valley, going to have to wait for any potential threats in our neck of the woods. Expect perturbations to continue, mojo doing a full circle from 8 briefly back in to phase 7? Hopefully we start to see a setup favorable for suppressed tracks, may take a miracle, just goes to show us how fortunate we were in 09-10 and 10-11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry, are those years the analogs you are using, or are there others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yes it does...thanks! Good luck with your research and I hope for this board's sake you are correct ncwinterwxman, Thanks for the kudos in your other post about my climo research. Regarding climo, here's one way to look at it. Back in 1889-90 and 1931-2: had you been alive then and following wx, you likely would have said the same thing at this point and even well into Feb. in those winters as Dec., Jan., and Feb. were all mild. There apparently were then no physical mechanisms to get cold south for more than a few days at a time through much of Feb. Yet, despite that, those March's were all solidly below normal and had some wintry precip. in Atlanta. The physical mechanisms did, indeed, finally change. That's the idea of following these and other analog winters. What wouldn't occur for much of the winter finally did at the end. There is reasonable hope that that will again happen in 2012-3. So, climo, itself, isn't a mechanism. However, it reflects on the change in the mechanism in similar winters as winter got into its late stages. Does this explanation of how I look at climo make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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