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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II


Cold Rain

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Same deal for the piedmont. More snow in March than Dec.

 

  Charlotte Precipitation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Monthly Snowfall (inches) 2.0 1.6 1.2 < 0.05 < 0.05 < 0.05 0.0 0.0 0.0 < 0.05 0.1 0.5 5.4

 

With those small amounts averages are pretty much non descriptive.  One good sized event every 10 years and you can go 0 for 9 and still hit the average. 

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Only a couple of inches there in archdale?  really?  6-8" near PTI.  Started Friday evening as zr/pl/sn.  About an inch of slop.  Turned to a bit of zr.  Temp didn't get above 32 or 33.  Remember waking saturday morning to no power and a blizzard warning.  Temps dropped into the mid 20's, winds to 40 mph, and 5-7" of new snow.  Wife went into labor early the next morning. 

 

FWIW, if not for JB, I wouldn't have known it was a possibility until a day or two before.  JB talked about it all week. Again, not saying it was a lock for a blizzard, but doing his usual of making everyone aware of the potential. 

TW

I just remember being more impressed with the barometer and the flash freeze than anything else. In two days it was all gone.  meh.

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Only a couple of inches there in archdale?  really?  6-8" near PTI.  Started Friday evening as zr/pl/sn.  About an inch of slop.  Turned to a bit of zr.  Temp didn't get above 32 or 33.  Remember waking saturday morning to no power and a blizzard warning.  Temps dropped into the mid 20's, winds to 40 mph, and 5-7" of new snow.  Wife went into labor early the next morning. 

 

FWIW, if not for JB, I wouldn't have known it was a possibility until a day or two before.  JB talked about it all week. Again, not saying it was a lock for a blizzard, but doing his usual of making everyone aware of the potential. 

TW

I only had 1.5" slushy inches in Hillsborough.
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Correct.  And those numbers appear to be out of order...if 5.4 is December and 1.2 is March...then December is more snowy than March which makes sense...

The 5.4 is the yearly average. They get more snow in March than Dec. My whole point of all this is that climo is on your side for snow more in March than Dec.

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Many people have been throwing in the towel since the warm spell at the beginning of Jan. Granted, the winter has been pretty crappy for most for the second year in a row, but there has been a good deal of cold temps and a bit of wintry wx around the past couple of weeks. More than last year.....

 

I'm pretty sure there is going to be a mass exodus the next few weeks as week go back and forth between cold spells and warm spells but I think it will be premature. I've seen it time and time again when its been warm in Jan/Feb and all hope is gone to be "surprised" with a dandy of a storm in late Feb/early March. There is a long ways to go yet and if/when a good block sets up, be it Feb or March, snow can be abundant. Heck, I've even seen snow in early April (2001 or 2002???) during the middle of the day when the sun was peaking in/out.  

 

BTW, tomorrow is looking quite bad in terms of severe wx in the SE...please pay attention and tell everyone else the same!

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Rule #2 -- if you are pinning your hopes on a late Feb./early March snow to bail our your crappy winter, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

Hey now, March 1-2, 2009 totally bailed out that winter for me, especially after getting fringed by the Inauguration Day 2009 storm.  It can happen!  Just don't pin your hopes. ;)

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The 5.4 is the yearly average. They get more snow in March than Dec. My whole point of all this is that climo is on your side for snow more in March than Dec.

 

Yes, at GSO we average more snow in February-March than in November-January.  There is no reason to fret quite yet.  Most of our big snows come during late January-early March, in fact (though there are some exceptions, like the Christmas Day Storm of 2010).

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Yes, at GSO we average more snow in February-March than in November-January.  There is no reason to fret quite yet.  Most of our big snows come during late January-early March, in fact (though there are some exceptions, like the Christmas Day Storm of 2010).

 

I think the same is for Raleigh in regards to when the biggest average snowfall occurs. I haven't done the reaserach, but just going from my memory, I think we have had the bigger snowfall events around here in December and January since 2000.

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It's just time to move to Alaska!12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

 

GEFS is a super torch too after day 10.  Could winter be over come Feb 10th..... possibly, I know GaWx thinks end of Feb/March may be interesting but personally I hope winter ends Feb 10th as the chances of getting a 4"+ snow is slim to none with the pattern we have had this winter and I see no reason why this is all of a suddenly going to flip.     :sizzle:

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GEFS is a super torch too after day 10.  Could winter be over come Feb 10th..... possibly, I know GaWx thinks end of Feb/March may be interesting but personally I hope winter ends Feb 10th as the chances of getting a 4"+ snow is slim to none with the pattern we have had this winter and I see no reason why this is all of a suddenly going to flip.     :sizzle:

It is? I don't think it was all that warm. A few degrees above normal maybe. Really I don't see how winter ends Feb 10th. I'm sure in April I will be watching my daughters play softball while the temps are in the 30's and 20's with flurries/snow showers here and there. It never fails, happens almost every year.

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Well, we can always hope for another March of 93.

 

Please do hope for that.  I would love a redux in Hickory, but I think you people to our east wouldn't really like it too much.

 

Winter's not over for me until April.  I'll stop hoping for a storm at that point.  Just enjoy the ride and the ups and downs that make up a SE winter.  Maybe I'll get lucky in a week or two or three.  Maybe not.  But nobody's going to get me to jump off a cliff anytime soon.

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One thing I like to look at with respect to temperatures is not so much the average temperatures, but rather, the number of cold days that have occurred.  For Dec/Jan, Charlotte has experienced exactly 1 day with a high temperature of 42 or less, with none forecasted through Jan 31.  That would be the lowest number EVER going back to 1894.  So when did the 2nd lowest number occur?  Last year, when there were only 2 days in Dec/Jan with a high of 42 or less (though that also occurred in Dec/Jan of 1931-1932).  It's kind of hard to get winter weather when you don't have any cold air.

 

The coldest Dec/Jan period was in the winter of 1917-1918 when Charlotte recorded 32 days with highs of 42 or less...and 15 days with highs of 32 or less (that winter actually flipped warm in Feb/Mar)

 

In spite of all that, there is no giving up here in griteater-land...the models can change pretty quickly 

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You should have seen the model watching and "analysis" leading up to the 12/25-26/2010 storm.  That was entertaining.

 

 

I was just reading the first thread yesterday. Good times!

 

I've been reading through the various threads on that one lately, too (last big snow here and I'm pining for the nostalgia).  It's fun to go back and read all the cliff-diving, especially when the storm went away on Christmas Eve and looked like it was going to head way offshore and miss most all of us.

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It is? I don't think it was all that warm. A few degrees above normal maybe. Really I don't see how winter ends Feb 10th. I'm sure in April I will be watching my daughters play softball while the temps are in the 30's and 20's with flurries/snow showers here and there. It never fails, happens almost every year.

Keep hope alive...models look very warm after day 10, hopefully for all you snow weenies they are wrong.

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All signs point to any hope of prolonged cold and snow being over for the SE. Anything other than this statement is bordering on wishcasting. We can hope we squeeze something in towards the end of feb and first of march but time is running out on us fast with nothing to hang our hat on moving forward.

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