nchighcountrywx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Based on yesterday's CPC's Prognostic Discussion and Maps, this winter may now well be wrapped up for North Carolina. Down in Charlotte, Mother nature is showing signs she agrees with daffodill shoots up and early budding trees starting to flower a good 3 -4 weeks ahead of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 In my opinion, that's the common denominator that answers many questions regarding the last two winters. Here's our winner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 We have seen systems trend south on the models a number of times this year. This setup looks strange in the since that the low looks to cut off over Ohio and then slowly move east from that point. There is a high to the north that does block its movement. This high could eventually help us in keeping the system more south. (but) I think we have at least a few changes to this look in the next couple of days. I agree....definitely worth watching. I'd like to see that high trend stronger. That's my first request with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I just glanced at the major model runs from last night and I thought I saw blocking trying to set up toward the end of the runs on the ensembles. I guess I am in the minority here (maybe senile or overly optimistic), but I think our next shot at "potential" comes in the Feb 10th-20th timeframe. Looks to me like split flow develops and if we can manage some blocking I think there is a real chance at something popping up during that timeframe. It always seems transitory and the Atlantic ridge starts to look just about right then starts sliding eastward...Euro Ens mean from last night is a perfect example...You see the 240hr by itself and start to think....maybe, then you look at the 11-15 day and just shake your head...Story of the winter. Almost but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The GGEM is further south/stronger/slower, but not quite south enough, very borderline for norther NC/TN, I would guess. Something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bentwater Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Based on yesterday's CPC's Prognostic Discussion and Maps, this winter may now well be wrapped up for North Carolina. Down in Charlotte, Mother nature is showing signs she agrees with daffodill shoots up and early budding trees starting to flower a good 3 -4 weeks ahead of normal. I've been seeing Sandhill Cranes headed North the past few days here in Acworth, Ga. about 30 minutes NW of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I've been seeing Sandhill Cranes headed North the past few days here in Acworth, Ga. about 30 minutes NW of Atlanta. Ha! My parents had those in their backyard in Sarasota! They really are confused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That's why I would never want to move up north. I would never want to live where 3-6" of snow is nothing special due to its frequency. The novelty ofsnow is taken away. I love living where snow is rare enough to make just 1-2" a pretty big deal. Anyway, I'm educatedly guessing there will be a rather uneventful next three weeks or so for much of the SE at least outside of NC/TN followed by what could easily be the best part of the winter sometine during the subsequent three weeks. We'll see. I guess we do have differing views on that because I could never imagine 3-6" of snow being nothing special to me just because it happened frequently. I would love to live where at least that much happened frequently. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, for one, this system on Saturday night is more of an Alberta Clipper type system. They originate in Alberta Canada and quickly move southeast on strong northwest flow aloft. That's just their nature. All clippers pretty much work the same way and are fast moving. In the Midwest, they can be expected to bring 1-3" of snow most occasions. Down here, 0-1" is normal in the mountains. Downslope winds often limit precip east of the mountains. Tough to get a slow moving snow storm in winter in general, owing to fast westerlies aloft. But, it can happen if you align the system with the upper level trough and offer some sort of semi-blocking feature downstream to slow the progression of the trough. That's what brought us our massive rains earlier this month. Rule #1 of NC snow: DO NOT pin your hopes on a Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Based on yesterday's CPC's Prognostic Discussion and Maps, this winter may now well be wrapped up for North Carolina. Down in Charlotte, Mother nature is showing signs she agrees with daffodill shoots up and early budding trees starting to flower a good 3 -4 weeks ahead of normal. On the other hand, I have seen a few times over the years, heavy snow all day long when bradford pear trees were in full bloom here in the upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I guess we do have differing views on that because I could never imagine 3-6" of snow being nothing special to me just because it happened frequently. I would love to live where at least that much happened frequently. But that's just me. I'm from NC, but have lived all over growing up. When you live in a colder climate the winter weather is not as special. I still enjoyed it but it was not the same as when the occurance is considered rare (or at least not as probable). If I ever took a road trip (for a winter weather event), it would be to Florida to see snow in that state. That would be special. **I lived there in the mid-late 70s during the famous snow in Orlando and flurries in Miami. I was a kid but remember all the excitment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Rule #1 of NC snow: DO NOT pin your hopes on a Clipper But at least you have a chance... small chance but there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It always seems transitory and the Atlantic ridge starts to look just about right then starts sliding eastward...Euro Ens mean from last night is a perfect example...You see the 240hr by itself and start to think....maybe, then you look at the 11-15 day and just shake your head...Story of the winter. Almost but not quite. You not the only one. Robert has told me for a couple of years now that time frame has always been a good time for something to pop up every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Wow, it has already hit 72 at KATL and that is with a good bit of cloudiness. Impressive! It now looks like KATL could get up to as high as ~75. This also increases the chance that the month of January for KATL will end up at 50F+, a pretty rare feat. The last time for that was 1974! Despite a chilly 1/31-2/1, I fully expect a normal to above normal temperature pattern to dominate over the next three weeks or so. After that, analogs suggest a decent chance for a big change to start to develop soon afterward. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I hit 70 at 1:15pm 50 miles NE of Atlanta. Off and on clouds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Here's our winner!! I just wish I understood the mechanisms that have caused it better. Even in the last 2 years of a Nina, I've had decent rain which Nina would generally dictate otherwise. So even those 2 years of it have been "off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Based on yesterday's CPC's Prognostic Discussion and Maps, this winter may now well be wrapped up for North Carolina. Down in Charlotte, Mother nature is showing signs she agrees with daffodill shoots up and early budding trees starting to flower a good 3 -4 weeks ahead of normal. I agree with CPC. ENSO neutral years, with a more recent trend toward cooler Nino 3.4 region waters suggests our chances for big arctic outbreaks may be declining (and not just due to climo). In addition, the long-range GFS has essentially no signs of any major cold weather coming this far south anytime soon. My daffodils here are 3" tall and my tiger lilies want to bathe in the sun. Hard to argue with them - it's 70 deg out there now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Bingo! That was my rationale as well...you really need blocking in late winter to get any sort of cold around here...and with no real mechanism to induce a block in sight...I have my doubts...I think it will be an early spring... IMO, with so much energy in the northern stream, we're going to need blocking if we're going to overcome the non-favorable alignment of indexes like the PNA, MJO, etc. I agree with Larry in that the MJO is just a piece of the puzzle and is not black and white. But as we move on into Feb and the MJO travels into less favorable phases, we will need to have something to counter it, if we expect to be cold and stormy.The energy in the northern stream beats down the PNA. So I believe we are going to see a healthy Greenland block set up if we are to have any sort of sustained good pattern for winter weather, once the MJO goes into the bad phases. I have seen no evidence of any Greenland blocking or any sustained west-based NAO all winter. That doesn't mean it won't change tomorrow, but there doesn't appear to be any evidence of it anytime soon either.That brings us back to threading a really small needle. It could happen. But regardless of analogues or other historical data, the evidence presenting itself to me right now, today, does not show me anything that looks anything like a cold end to winter. I hope I'm way off on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Rule #2 -- if you are pinning your hopes on a late Feb./early March snow to bail our your crappy winter, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Rule #1 of NC snow: DO NOT pin your hopes on a Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Rule #2 -- if you are pinning your hopes on a late Feb./early March snow to bail our your crappy winter, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Well, Feb 26, 2004 was my favorite storm since childhood and it produced obviously in late Feb. However I think that was a decent winter with threats here and there and the indicies I believe lined up really well for it. It doesn't look like we're going to have anything in our favor in Feb other than the MJO; which it seems isn't going to mean too much. If anything positive comes out of this winter, it'll be that CLT has had two essentially snowless winters and we'll be due next year. I couldn't imagine having 3 in a row. Is there any update on whether or not it's going to be a nino/nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, we can always hope for another March of 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, we can always hope for another March of 93. The previous time we had a storm like 93 it grounded all the pterodactyls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm not sure why every year people think winter is over after you get thru mid Feb. As I opined back in Dec when people said we were wasting the heart of winter that November and December are not very snowy months. I dug up the monthly snowfall for Asheville and it turns out that April averages as much snow as Nov. And March more than Dec. Of course Jan and Feb are the top two. Asheville Precipitation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Precipitation (inches) 3.2 3.9 4.6 3.4 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 47.6 Days with Precipitation 0.01 inch or More 11.0 10.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 10.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 126 Monthly Snowfall (inches) 5.0 4.3 2.8 0.6 < 0.05 < 0.05 < 0.05 < 0.05 0.0 < 0.05 0.7 2.0 15.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, we can always hope for another March of 93. Was it not a rainstorm for central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Was it not a rainstorm for central NC? Wasn't much too it here except the lowest barometer reading I'd seen in quite a while. Rain followed be sleet and a bit of snow on top. Couple of inches total. Disappeared almost as fast as it arrived. Only missed an hour of school Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm not sure why every year people think winter is over after you get thru mid Feb. As I opined back in Dec when people said we were wasting the heart of winter that November and December are not very snowy months. I dug up the monthly snowfall for Asheville and it turns out that April averages as much snow as Nov. And March more than Dec. Of course Jan and Feb are the top two. Asheville Precipitation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Precipitation (inches) 3.2 3.9 4.6 3.4 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 47.6 Days with Precipitation 0.01 inch or More 11.0 10.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 10.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 126 Monthly Snowfall (inches) 5.0 4.3 2.8 0.6 < 0.05 < 0.05 < 0.05 < 0.05 0.0 < 0.05 0.7 2.0 15.4 Well, because it basically is over after mid-Feb 9 times out of 10 for areas outside of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Wasn't much too it here except the lowest barometer reading I'd seen in quite a while. Rain followed be sleet and a bit of snow on top. Couple of inches total. Disappeared almost as fast as it arrived. Only missed an hour of school Monday morning. It was and I'm sure will be the best storm in my lifetime. That was the only time I was able to sled off of a roof. LOL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, we can always hope for another March of 93. How much snow did Raleigh get with that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, because it basically is over after mid-Feb 9 times out of 10 for areas outside of the mountains Same deal for the piedmont. More snow in March than Dec. Charlotte Precipitation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Monthly Snowfall (inches) 2.0 1.6 1.2 < 0.05 < 0.05 < 0.05 0.0 0.0 0.0 < 0.05 0.1 0.5 5.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Only a couple of inches there in archdale? really? 6-8" near PTI. Started Friday evening as zr/pl/sn. About an inch of slop. Turned to a bit of zr. Temp didn't get above 32 or 33. Remember waking saturday morning to no power and a blizzard warning. Temps dropped into the mid 20's, winds to 40 mph, and 5-7" of new snow. Wife went into labor early the next morning. FWIW, if not for JB, I wouldn't have known it was a possibility until a day or two before. JB talked about it all week. Again, not saying it was a lock for a blizzard, but doing his usual of making everyone aware of the potential. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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