mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The verification of the weeklies has been very poor so far this winter,so I would not worry to much about those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CSFV2's are really not all that bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 the weeklies have been all over the map like everything else this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 the weeklies have been all over the map like everything else this winterone of the forecasts is gonna bust. Either the mjo forecast or the warm temps in the east. The ensembles have thw mjo going into phases 8 -2 and the ensembles also show above normal temps in the east next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 well I've noticed the easiest forecast to make from the nws for the future is always partly cloudy and in the 50's then as we approach that next week the partly cloudy turns in to rain or snow and the temps about 15 degrees cooler for some of the days in that week. really conservative in the winter until the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 well I've noticed the easiest forecast to make from the nws for the future is always partly cloudy and in the 50's then as we approach that next week the partly cloudy turns in to rain or snow and the temps about 15 degrees cooler for some of the days in that week. really conservative in the winter until the last minute It's called "climo" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 MEH.....Its the same old crap....honestly, I have already punted for winter....Might be wrong to do so, but hey I am still waiting for my 3-5" I was supposed to get on January 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I am still waiting for my 3-5" I was supposed to get on January 17th. LOL no kidding...Can I have some of your rain? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 LOL no kidding...Can I have some of your rain? lol Take all you want. I guess I am going to have to hold out hope for an ULL that actually works out IMBY before we run out of time in a few weeks. I would be going insane if not the VT trip and the chase for the thundersnow. I am giving serious consideration to exiting the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Take all you want. I guess I am going to have to hold out hope for an ULL that actually works out IMBY before we run out of time in a few weeks. I would be going insane if not the VT trip and the chase for the thundersnow. I am giving serious consideration to exiting the south though. You might have too! I am not going lie, The WYO wind was terrible at times, but the 70"+ a season was GREAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 For me right now it's about just finding a storm. I haven't thrown the towel in by no means, but in February instead of working from the outside in hunting a favorable pattern in hopes it will generate storm potential, I just look for a storm/ precip maker then pray the cold will be here. I'm finished sweating out all the teleconnections, mjo, strat warming etc.. just look every time precip comes our way and see if it will have the cold to work with or not. This morning was a foul ball,Wednesday is a swing and a miss. Next up appears to be Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's called "climo" yep I know the weather is a hard thing to call, especially in the mtns. in the winter. nws actually does a pretty good job around the mtns. just frustrated we haven't had a good winter storm yet and its not their fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You might have too! I am not going lie, The WYO wind was terrible at times, but the 70"+ a season was GREAT! Was the 70" a lot of nickel-and-dime events or did you get big snows? I know a lot of Denver's snows are nickel-and-dimers, but I'm not sure if it's similar up further north or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z gfs is real close hr 126 -140. Ky would see a nice few inches, then northern mtns. Maybe we can get a little bump, favorable trend and cash in. If your on the TN / KY, NC /VA line you might be in business or at least get a front row seat watching your neighbors play in the snow this Sunday. Need to see a trend upward in qpf this side of the apps and of course temps a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z gfs is real close hr 126 -140. Ky would see a nice few inches, then northern mtns. Maybe we can get a little bump, favorable trend and cash in. If your on the TN / KY, NC /VA line you might be in business or at least get a front row seat watching your neighbors play in the snow this Sunday. Need to see a trend upward in qpf this side of the apps and of course temps a little cooler. can we trend this a little south with more qpf and have it come in sunday am before dawn. at least its something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z gfs is real close hr 126 -140. Ky would see a nice few inches, then northern mtns. Maybe we can get a little bump, favorable trend and cash in. If your on the TN / KY, NC /VA line you might be in business or at least get a front row seat watching your neighbors play in the snow this Sunday. Need to see a trend upward in qpf this side of the apps and of course temps a little cooler. euro has a week system as well and so does the jma so you can bank on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro ENS have about a 0.1" for RDU and surrounding areas, although I just spot checked a few cities. Better than nothing :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Was the 70" a lot of nickel-and-dime events or did you get big snows? I know a lot of Denver's snows are nickel-and-dimers, but I'm not sure if it's similar up further north or not? A lot of it was a nickel/dimers....We would see a lot of 3-6" snows. Some 8-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 A lot of it was a nickel/dimers....We would see a lot of 3-6" snows. Some 8-14" Pretty impressive how a "nickle or dimer" down here in the SE ends up being a big storm opposed to other areas of the country that are used to it. I've never seen 10" of snow in my life, hope to one day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It really is....its crazy how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 A lot of it was a nickel/dimers....We would see a lot of 3-6" snows. Some 8-14" Ah, yes, your typical nickel-and-dimers. Haha, that must have been awesome, in all seriousness. 0z GFS is looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Long range 00z GFS wasn't all too impressive IMO for most of the SE. Looks a tad early spring wise. Clipper not too far from now that could POSSIBLY give some of NC a tiny QPF wintry event shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Long range 00z GFS wasn't all too impressive IMO for most of the SE. Looks a tad early spring wise. If we can get that system on 2/3 to dig more, we could be in business for something there (probably a moderate event, at best, but still). As modeled, it would probably be a light snow event, but the Apps are going to do their work on this side of the mountains. In the longer range, there's a lot of big storm systems, though none as depicted seem to show any wintry weather. Still, that sure beats the dry nothingness the GFS was showing a mere day ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 If we can get that system on 2/3 to dig more, we could be in business for something there (probably a moderate event, at best, but still). As modeled, it would probably be a light snow event, but the Apps are going to do their work on this side of the mountains. In the longer range, there's a lot of big storm systems, though none as depicted seem to show any wintry weather. Still, that sure beats the dry nothingness the GFS was showing a mere day ago. Thats the little system I was speaking of around the end of the short range. For NC it looks like it may produce something Wintry per 00z GFS. Even if it's light, the ratios may be a bit higher? For us down here in SC.. nothing haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Pretty impressive how a "nickle or dimer" down here in the SE ends up being a big storm opposed to other areas of the country that are used to it. I've never seen 10" of snow in my life, hope to one day though. That's why I would never want to move up north. I would never want to live where 3-6" of snow is nothing special due to its frequency. The novelty ofsnow is taken away. I love living where snow is rare enough to make just 1-2" a pretty big deal. Anyway, I'm educatedly guessing there will be a rather uneventful next three weeks or so for much of the SE at least outside of NC/TN followed by what could easily be the best part of the winter sometine during the subsequent three weeks. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That's why I would never want to move up north. I would never want to live where 3-6" of snow is nothing special due to its frequency. The novelty ofsnow is taken away. I love living where snow is rare enough to make just 1-2" a pretty big deal. Anyway, I'm educatedly guessing there will be a rather uneventful next three weeks or so for much of the SE at least outside of NC/TN followed by what could easily be the best part of the winter sometine during the subsequent three weeks. We'll see. Although I orignally said Mid Fed I'm starting to think the end of Feb into the 2nd week of March may show a much better threat to have it fall out the sky at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 anyone still keeping an eye on the saturday night sunday event. could be a bigger deal than we think with a little more digging. would be great to watch the snow and the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 well I've noticed the easiest forecast to make from the nws for the future is always partly cloudy and in the 50's then as we approach that next week the partly cloudy turns in to rain or snow and the temps about 15 degrees cooler for some of the days in that week. really conservative in the winter until the last minute That has been the pattern all winter. Warm and rain, then gets cold, then warms up and rains again. Rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 anyone still keeping an eye on the saturday night sunday event. could be a bigger deal than we think with a little more digging. would be great to watch the snow and the super bowl. Looks marginal to me. GFS not very gung-ho either. Event should be completely over by Super Bowl time. If we do get snow, it would be late Saturday into early Sunday. It's a quick mover, which will also limit QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not much to lift hopes right now. I look at the indicies every day. As I stated yesterday not sure they're a good tool in the long range. But today the Ensemble mean outlook has: PNA - Slightly positive throughout the next couple of weeks (not bad for stopping the Pacific air invasions) NAO - Positive throughout the next couple of weeks (bad because cold will be transient) AO - Definitly positive the first week, then all over the place. Maybe averaging neutral (not a lot of cross-polar air) So maybe for the next couple of weeks we have transient shots of stale Canadian air masses. Like what the GFS is currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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