jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z GFS vanished the clipper for Friday but still has a pretty good cold shot at 96 and a couple more reinforcements through 168...for us here in the upper third of the Southeast, its a decent late January/early Feb temperature pattern and one that would be conducive to winter weather if we can get something to organize. Clipper is still there,but the 18z has slowed everything down to look like the Euro.It comes in later to produce a ice event,but its minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z GFS vanished the clipper for Friday but still has a pretty good cold shot at 96 and a couple more reinforcements through 168...for us here in the upper third of the Southeast, its a decent late January/early Feb temperature pattern and one that would be conducive to winter weather if we can get something to organize. Not sure what you are seeing either long range,it looks like crap on the embs euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Atlanta FFC: AS FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERNGEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY...AND WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INPLACE...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.MODELS SUGGESTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WOULD ENTERFAR NORTH GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY...AND QUICKLY SPREADEASTWARD...GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF GEORGIACOUNTIES...AND QUICKLY EXIT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVEGONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/MIXPRECIPITATION...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK BE EXTREMELY LIGHT. It is almost as if FFC, which used to tend to be too conservative, has flipped and may have gone too far in the opposite direction. They ended up too aggressive with their warnings for the last two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It is almost as if FFC, which used to tend to be too conservative, has flipped and may have gone too far in the opposite direction. They ended up too aggressive with their warnings for the last two events. Ever since that snow shut down Atlanta a couple years ago, FFC has been more aggressive in forecasting winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Not sure what you are seeing either long range,it looks like crap on the embs euro The euro ensembles from 12z are in lock step with the op. I only look at NC but for us we stay below normal from Thursday all the way through the end of the run. No big storm showing up but the cold is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I really like the 6th -11th period both the gfs and euro control run have a storm in this period. yes they are botj too warm at face value but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The euro ensembles from 12z are in lock step with the op. I only look at NC but for us we stay below normal from Thursday all the way through the end of the run. No big storm showing up but the cold is definitely there. Bad part of this winter for all of us,when we have cold we have no storm.Its annoying for us all especially when the MJO should be on someones side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I wont be surprised in a couple weeks the weeklies start showing warmth in Canada and starts pushing the cold back to Alaska,this will shut the door for us this winter.Don't think this winter will last into March,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Bad part of this winter for all of us,when we have cold we have no storm.Its annoying for us all especially when the MJO should be on someones side. yep and when we have a storm it is to warm so we get rain. why is this, it happens all the time. you would think that at least 3 or 4 times out of 10 you would have the cold and the storm, or at least 2 out of 10 times. threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yep and when we have a storm it is to warm so we get rain. why is this, it happens all the time. you would think that at least 3 or 4 times out of ten you would have the cold and the storm, or at least 2 out of 10 times. threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous. Yep,nothing but troughs in the med and long range,worthless for us other than wrap.We don't want to see spring like storms in Jan.,real scary thought of what might occur severe season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yep and when we have a storm it is to warm so we get rain. why is this, it happens all the time. you would think that at least 3 or 4 times out of ten you would have the cold and the storm, or at least 2 out of 10 times. threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous. Based on longterm climate stats, only ~5% of Raleigh's and ~2-3% of Atlanta's total Dec.-Mar liquid equiv. precip. has fallen as S, IP, or ZR. That's how it is in the SE US. So, what you're seeing now is pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Based on longterm climate stats, only ~5% of Raleigh's and ~2% of Atlanta's total Dec.-Mar liquid equiv. precip. has fallen as S, IP, or ZR. That's how it is in the SE US. So, what you're seeing now is pretty typical. This isnt a typical winter though,how many times in a winter do you see a severe weather threat like this one/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Based on longterm climate stats, only ~5% of Raleigh's and ~2% of Atlanta's total Dec.-Mar liquid equiv. precip. has fallen as S, IP, or ZR. That's how it is in the SE US. So, what you're seeing now is pretty typical. yep I know, just showing a little frustration, or I could say venting a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Just dont like all the troughiness right now.Its setting it self up for a wide spread severe threat ahead of the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Well, it was nice to see that fantasy storm on the Euro at the end of last week. We have some time for the models to change, but it really is frustrating to be in a better than normal pattern for winter weather and not get anything big. The last two events were better than nothing, but it appears it is getting harder and harder for everything to come together for a big winter event around here. I hope it is just a cycle we are in lately and not a hint at things to come in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Well, it was nice to see that fantasy storm on the Euro at the end of last week. We have some time for the models to change, but it really is frustrating to be in a better than normal pattern for winter weather and not get anything big. The last two events were better than nothing, but it appears it is getting harder and harder for everything to come together for a big winter event around here. I hope it is just a cycle we are in lately and not a hint at things to come in the future. lol..there is no cycle in the SE brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 This isnt a typical winter though,how many times in a winter do you see a severe weather threat like this one/ Um quite a bit. No more rare than a snow storm here. I don't have exact numbers like some others might have but have been here for 26 years and almost every winter has some thunderstorms and severe weather. Otherwise people wouldn't say it snows a week after severe weather. Take the links below for examples of severe weather just recently. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/severe-weather-leaves-5-injured-in-north-carolina/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050114/ March for example has the second highest number of tornadoes for the past 50 years. Which is on the border of winter, but still. It's the south, this is winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 CFSv2 was a good run for snow lovers in the east including a lot of SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 CFSv2 was a good run for snow lovers in the east including a lot of SE Do tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 CFSv2 was a good run for snow lovers in the east including a lot of SE Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Can you elaborate? Got if off paid site so I can't post graphics, But it shows snow cover on the ground for a good bit of Feb. because of getting snow and staying cold and it hanging around. But it does show good chances. will it be right is anybody guess? But it did well with the Christmas snow cover it had predicted weeks before?? Maybe there's someone who can elaborate on it better than I can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Okay, the Euro has possibility along with the GFS's random energy floating around through Feb. Calm down. No more meltdowns please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Okay, the Euro has possibility along with the GFS's random energy floating around through Feb. Calm down. No more meltdowns please. Random energy? Is that some paranormal stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Random energy? Is that some paranormal stuff? Haha, nah. Just the chance is still on the models. The Euro should start showing a major storm at some point. We are definitely at that time of the year. Will it be a major severe? Maybe.. hopefully it will have cold to work with instead. I've learned that following the models each run every day is not for the weak of heart and taking a glance ocassionally keeps one from going insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Haha, nah. Just the chance is still on the models. The Euro should start showing a major storm at some point. We are definitely at that time of the year. Will it be a major severe? Maybe...hopefully it will have cold to work with instead. I've learned that following the models each run every day is not for the weak of heart and taking a glance occasionally keeps one from going insane. NAM cycle suggests a significant severe threat in the Carolinas early on 01/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Do tell. Can you elaborate? Days 5-10 shows majority of SE in the mix, not heavy snows but enough to get excited. Days 10-15 pretty decent snows with NC, NGA, NSC in the mix over other areas. Days 15-20 looks like snowcover backs off during this time period. Days 20+ looks to generate snowcover again in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm, glad it's showing snows on the ground, Jon, and not tornadic storms I think winter tornadoes are just meaner a lot of times, with all the mixing energy, but a good squall line can sometimes preceed a good dump of frozen goodies. Where there is energy around there's chances. I still think this coming front might have fun behind it. And not just clipper foreplay...but so far it isn't showing, if it's there, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM cycle suggests a significant severe threat in the Carolinas early on 01/31. The next event mid week yeah, I was talking about into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 From my untrained eye, the 0z GFS has 2 weak clipper events before truncation... Once around 2/1, and another one around 2/4. Maybe someone can cash in on some flurries . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 From my untrained eye, the 0z GFS has 2 weak clipper events before truncation... Once around 2/1, and another one around 2/4. Maybe someone can cash in on some flurries . Noticing a lot more southern stream involvement even into the long hours. Althought it looks warm now, we need those gulf systems here in SC to produce nice Wintry events generally. EDIT: and even though it's the long range GFS.. if the southern stream is really going to be more active, I expect a gulf low to start showing up on the models soon. Worries about the cold for sure. The WAA really burns us down here around CAE a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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