January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[GaWx]

I wish this would happen again. I know we have the whole month of Feb. but the longer we're going and nothing is really on the horizon we're going to run out of time. I hope this next storm takes a turn in our favor and will hold back, cut off. That would give us a chance of something big and would make a lot of folks feel better about the winter.

Personally, although I hope this isn't the case and despite the good MJO phases, I wouldn't at all be surprised if much of Feb. is fairly uneventful in the SE and less eventful than these last ten days, which had two interesting wintry events, based on warm Dec./Jan. analogs. The current model consensus doesn't suggest otherwise despite the good MJO phases. Unfortunately, these warm Dec./Jan. analogs strongly suggest that the risk for an unexciting most of Feb. is higher than normal for the SE US. Of course, analog years are just guides rather than crystal balls. Then again, the MJO is just another guide, itself, which could easily get trumped by these analogs. Hopefully, the MJO will trump the warm Dec./Jan. analogs. However, the analogs have done fairly well this month. They gave a decent hint

about the 1/25 ZR, for example. Also, the warm Dec. analogs hinted that Jan. would likely be mild in the SE which is verifying well. The good news is that those same analogs say that early to mid March has a good bit greater than normal chance to provide the SE with wintry fun (cold and quite possibly widespread wintry precip.). Hopefully, this would mean a fun late Feb., too.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1221 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 12Z WED JAN 30 2013 - 12Z SUN FEB 03 2013


THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE TO RATE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS HIGH THIS PERIOD. THE
12Z/26 ECMWF WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BOTH THE 12Z/26 ECENS AND GEFS
MEANS TO USE ITS DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM COAST TO COAST. THE
WAVE ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL STATES DAY 3
HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLAYED DOWN BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRE, WITH THE GEM
GLOBAL AND UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED. THE 00Z/27 GFS IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT--I.E. A MINIMAL WAVE--ANOTHER
FEATHER IN THE CAP OF THE ECMWF. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE PERIOD IS
A THERMAL ROLLER COASTER, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE EAST DAY 3, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAYS 4-6, THEN A PRONOUNCED CHINOOK
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 7.


CISCO

An arctic outbreak days 4-6? Someone alert the NWS because they have me with highs near 50 and lows near 30 Fri-Sun

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Personally, although I hope this isn't the case and despite the good MJO phases, I wouldn't at all be surprised if much of Feb. is fairly uneventful in the SE and less eventful than these last ten days, which had two interesting wintry events, based on warm Dec./Jan. analogs. The current model consensus doesn't suggest otherwise despite the good MJO phases. Unfortunately, these warm Dec./Jan. analogs strongly suggest that the risk for an unexciting most of Feb. is higher than normal for the SE US. Of course, analog years are just guides rather than crystal balls. Then again, the MJO is just another guide, itself, which could easily get trumped by these analogs. Hopefully, the MJO will trump the warm Dec./Jan. analogs. However, the analogs have done fairly well this month. They gave a decent hint

about the 1/25 ZR, for example. Also, the warm Dec. analogs hinted that Jan. would likely be mild in the SE which is verifying well. The good news is that those same analogs say that early to mid March has a good bit greater than normal chance to provide the SE with wintry fun (cold and quite possibly widespread wintry precip.). Hopefully, this would mean a fun late Feb., too.

If feb is uneventful and less eventful than the last 10 days , that's not good news for Atlanta considering there were no events in Atlanta other than a few teases here and there.

[WXinCanton]

So far I have not seen a single flake so far this winter.   I've at least seen a flake (including last year albeit small) every year I have lived in north metro ATL since 89.   Im hoping this is not the first year I'm completely shut out.

[burgertime]

I would keep an eye on that clipper the GFS has on 12z. Euro and past GFS runs have had it. It could end up being a nice surprise for TN and NC. 

[Stovepipe]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1221 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 12Z WED JAN 30 2013 - 12Z SUN FEB 03 2013

THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE AT THE MEDIUM

RANGE TO RATE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS HIGH THIS PERIOD. THE

12Z/26 ECMWF WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BOTH THE 12Z/26 ECENS AND GEFS

MEANS TO USE ITS DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM COAST TO COAST. THE

WAVE ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL STATES DAY 3

HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLAYED DOWN BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRE, WITH THE GEM

GLOBAL AND UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED. THE 00Z/27 GFS IS VERY

SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT--I.E. A MINIMAL WAVE--ANOTHER

FEATHER IN THE CAP OF THE ECMWF. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE PERIOD IS

A THERMAL ROLLER COASTER, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER

THE EAST DAY 3, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAYS 4-6, THEN A PRONOUNCED CHINOOK

OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 7.

CISCO

Don't let Fishel see this. His head will explode.

[LithiaWx]

So far I have not seen a single flake so far this winter. I've at least seen a flake (including last year albeit small) every year I have lived in north metro ATL since 89. Im hoping this is not the first year I'm completely shut out.

You didn't get the flizzard a few weeks ago? It was a Sunday and I was leaving church and saw some flurries after dark. Justin up in kennesaw reported them as well.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

So far I have not seen a single flake so far this winter. I've at least seen a flake (including last year albeit small) every year I have lived in north metro ATL since 89. Im hoping this is not the first year I'm completely shut out.

I'm surprised you didn't see any flakes with that system about 10 days ago. I even saw some flakes way down here in Carrollton.

[GaWx]

I'm surprised you didn't see any flakes with that system about 10 days ago. I even saw some flakes way down here in Carrollton.

I was in Dunwoody and saw zero flakes or pellets ten days back. As a matter of fact, I haven't seen a single flake or pellet fall in nearly three years (since March, 2010) though I did see beautiful snow on the ground in the Raleigh area just after Christmas in 2010 when I was visiting. The catch to that is that I was in Savannah the last two winters. Then again, I might not have seen any last winter even had I been in Dunwoody.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I was in Dunwoody and saw zero flakes or pellets ten days back. As a matter of fact, I haven't seen a single flake or pellet fall in nearly three years (since March, 2010) though I did see beautiful snow on the ground in the Raleigh area just after Christmas in 2010 when I was visiting. The catch to that is that I was in Savannah the last two winters. Then again, I might not have seen any last winter even had I been in Dunwoody.

Maybe a few snowless winters is necessary to balance out all the snow we had in 2010 and 2011. After 2 or 3 snowless winters we should be due for a big one either next winter or the winter after.

[DaculaWeather]

Donald Sutherland this morning:

 

"From the changes in the Arctic Oscillation, I believe it is now more likely than not that the stratospheric warming event was the result of the sustained block that ended in early January. If correct, the warming event was a bottom up response to earlier blocking, not a top-down one that would lead to strong blocking. While such blocking can't be ruled out at some point in February, such blocking probably would not be a response to the stratospheric warming event."

[DixieBlizzard]

Maybe a few snowless winters is necessary to balance out all the snow we had in 2010 and 2011. After 2 or 3 snowless winters we should be due for a big one either next winter or the winter after.

 

Yeah, man.  Gives the skies a chance to heal!

 

Oh yeah, that's right. It's January 27th. Winter is over. Pfffffffft!

[HKY_WX]

The gfs pattern the first 10 days of feb is dynamite if that sets up. Very nice looking. Also I agree w/ burger, there's a clipper system on friday that bears watching.

[superjames1992]

The christmas storm was a smallish example of a modern day bust. It wasn't really modeled correctly until about 12 hours away. Christmas eve morning there was no storm. Any time you have a northern stream vort chasing a southern stream vort, there is high volatility. But these are normally the only scenarios that produce a big dog and get totals up over 10 inches. I think we are heading into a good period the last week of Jan into the first couple weeks of Feb where this setup could happen again. We had potential back in late December but the timing was off.

 

I forgot how up-and-down that Christmas storm was.

 

Man, we need a sure-fire 100% snow guaranteed storm one of these days.  Boy, would that be fun to track?

[WXinCanton]

You didn't get the flizzard a few weeks ago? It was a Sunday and I was leaving church and saw some flurries after dark. Justin up in kennesaw reported them as well.

 

I think I might have been in Chicago that week.  And I didnt see any up there either, lol. I'm guessing if I were here I would have seen some.   

[GaWx]

Maybe a few snowless winters is necessary to balance out all the snow we had in 2010 and 2011. After 2 or 3 snowless winters we should be due for a big one either next winter or the winter after.

 

 There's no question that having had three winters in a row with a major snow in Atlanta (don't forget that 3/1/2009 had a 4.2" fall at Atlanta, itself) as well as a total of six 1"+ snows lead to a way above normal three year period from 2008-9 through 2010-1. The total was a whopping 16.6"! That was the first time since the three winter period of 1892-3 through 1894-5 that Atlanta had three winters in a row with at least one major S/IP!! How often has Atlanta had 16.6"+ of S/IP over just three winters? Well, the last time was in the early 1980's thanks mainly to a combo of snowjam '82 and the 3/24/1983 snow. 19.3" fell 1981-2 through 1983-4. Prior to that, one has to go all of the way back to 1896-7 through 1898-9 to find the last three winter period producing that much S/IP! (when 16.9" fell). The record highest by far was for 1892-3 through 1894-5, when a whopping 29.8" fell!! Each of those three winters had at least one 6"+ S/IP and one winter had two 4+"!

 

 So, yes, 2008-9 through 2010-1 was certainly pretty extraordinary for our area. It is in the company of only the early 1980's and the 1890's.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I would definitely keep an eye on that clipper-type feature diving down into Tennessee on Friday...that's going to be on the southern edge of some pretty cold air aloft. That would prob be a disturbance working with some higher than normal ratios so if you could spit out .10 or .15, then your talking solid advisory criteria event along I-40.

[NCSNOW]

At Grennsboro we are currentley +2.7 temp for Jan 2013. Today will make 8 out of the last 10 days with negative departure from normal temps. If it hadn't been for Jan 9-15th this month would have shook out way below normal. Hopefully the euro will show some clipper love on Friday so we can make it 3 fridays in a row.

[BIG FROSTY]

At Grennsboro we are currentley +2.7 temp for Jan 2013. Today will make 8 out of the last 10 days with negativedeparture from normal temps. If it hadn't been for Jan 9-15th this monthe would have shook out way below normal. Hopefully the euro will show some clipper love on Friday so we can make it 3 fridays in a row.

 

 

12z Euro- not putting out much Friday 0.01qpf for me. It looks pretty cold next weekend

[NCSNOW]

12z Euro- not putting out much Friday 0.01qpf for me. It looks pretty cold next weekend

Yep, gonna be on the wrong side of the big hill again for that one. upslope areas will do pretty good. I'd be willing to bet northern mtns with the ratios could meet wsw criteria.

[FallsLake]

The indicies not looking horrible, but not great. PNA looks to go slightly positive in a few days, NAO looks to be positive until about day 10; then go neutral, AO looks to go positive but drop back down to negative in about 10 days. (BUT) After observing our weather for the last few weeks I really don't think it's worth looking at these indicies. They're about as correct as any operational long range model. Best to just focus on the short and mid range times.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[deltadog03]

Looking at the new 12z EURO, it looks like its bringing the front/threat through GA in the Afternoon/eve (ie best time of day for heating) which is much different than the last few "svr threats".  Need to keep an eye on it for sure. 

[buckeyefan1]

Looking at the new 12z EURO, it looks like its bringing the front/threat through GA in the Afternoon/eve (ie best time of day for heating) which is much different than the last few "svr threats".  Need to keep an eye on it for sure. 

From the SPC.........

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0330 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013      VALID 301200Z - 041200Z      ...DISCUSSION...   THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE   THAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPID   PROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MID   LEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE   BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENT   WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO   SUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUME   OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BY   WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND   GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION   ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.   WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO   SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE   WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE   CONVECTIVE LINE.      THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL BUT FAR SRN FL BY   D5/THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO   SHUT DOWN FURTHER PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AT LEAST   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.      ..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013

 

CAE mentions a 50% chance of showers on Wednesday   

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

l

[DaculaWeather]

Atlanta FFC:

 

 

AS FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERNGEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY...AND WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INPLACE...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.MODELS SUGGESTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WOULD ENTERFAR NORTH GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY...AND QUICKLY SPREADEASTWARD...GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF GEORGIACOUNTIES...AND QUICKLY EXIT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVEGONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/MIXPRECIPITATION...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK BE EXTREMELY LIGHT.

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

Looking forward to a promising pattern for all the snow lovers. However, It is nice to have all the small events in between. At least we are not stuck in a stagnant pattern.

[NCSNOW]

Euro is below normal temps in nc from Thursday all the way out. Qpf is another story.

[griteater]

Tidbit from HM...

 

"Well, you can see the models are trying to "dip" the NAO a little bit in our suspect time frame. If these clippers next weekend that help to drop the PV southward can pull up a thumb ridge, it may act to bring a temporary-neg NAO setup for us. As the southern stream / pac low piles into this, it could bring a decent setup. The timing of course will be huge here and we won't have our typical leeway, like with classic -NAO setups, because of how fragile this thumb ridge will be.

 

The stratospheric guidance, while growing colder in the upper levels, is still favorable for a -AO in the lower levels. The latest EC suggest the vortex "reconfiguration" over the N atlantic will try to pull toward Europe by day 10. This could also support a thumb ridge into Greenland. Something to watch."

[Tacoma]

Atlanta FFC:

 

 

AS FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERNGEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY...AND WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INPLACE...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.MODELS SUGGESTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WOULD ENTERFAR NORTH GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY...AND QUICKLY SPREADEASTWARD...GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF GEORGIACOUNTIES...AND QUICKLY EXIT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVEGONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/MIXPRECIPITATION...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK BE EXTREMELY LIGHT.

looks like gsp is also mentioning this event Thursday night Friday morning clipper type system.  looks to be all snow in the nc mtns.  more widespread than most clipper systems covering n. ga , nc and upstate sc

[Marion_NC_WX]

18z GFS vanished the clipper for Friday but still has a pretty good cold shot at 96 and a couple more reinforcements through 168...for us here in the upper third of the Southeast, its a decent late January/early Feb temperature pattern and one that would be conducive to winter weather if we can get something to organize.