January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[Snowless in Carrollton]

A few things:

1.) It is irrelevant as far as nighttime snowfall goes, but it does play a role during the day (granted, we've scarcely had a daytime storm (except this last one and the one in 2010) in a decade).

2.) I enjoy having the snow sticking around. I can't really say why, but I'd much rather the snow stick around for a week rather than two days. Perhaps it is a carry-over from back in high school and I wanted school to be canceled.

3.) Soil temperatures can be significant whenever the precip is falling at lighter rates. They are even more important whenever BL temperatures are above freezing. It is even more important to road temperatures and played a large role as far as why the roads around here were not bad at all a week ago when we got 3.5" of snow.

A storm I'd like to cite is the March 2, 2010 storm. It snowed all day here from noon until midnight and we only ended up with a bit of 2" of snow. Why? Rates were light. The sun angle was high and most of our heavier rates came during the early afternoon when the sun angle played a role. Soil temperatures were very warm. And the surface temperature was generally 33-35 during the storm. Areas to our southeast got 4-8", largely due to higher rates and the fact that most of their snow fell during the evening/overnight hours, when the sun angle became largely irrelevant.

This link includes some discussion about the soil temperatures: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100302/

This led to a varied disparity of snowfall accumulations depending on who got heavier rates and when:

Now, for an example of when snowfall rates can and will largely render these subjects irrelevant, see March 1st-2nd, 2009. We got 6" out of that one, but it is important to note that that snowfall came at night with temperatures in the 29-31 degree range here. Rates were heavy, of course, as well, though that snow did disappear rather quickly, despite the fact that the high temperature the next day was only in the upper 20s here.

However, even with that storm, the sun angle and warmer temperatures down further southwest in GA/AL prevented significant snow accumulations in a lot of those areas.

But, yes, the bottom line is if we have heavy rates and blow freezing temperatures, soil temperatures aren't going to stop the snowfall from accumulating. If we can get a megastorm, it's not going to matter much. It can, however, affect marginal events with lighter snow rates and above freezing temperatures.

The main point being that, all else being equal, I'd rather us get our prescribed storm (if there is one) now rather than later.

In the march 09 storm we had hours of snow , even thunders now. I think probably 5 or 6 inches fell from the sky but less than an inch stuck. I have no doubt the fact that it snowed during the day combined with warm ground temps and an increasing sun angle were main reasons why it didn't stick much. I would much father have a snow in December of Jan than Feb or March since the sun angle is lower. I'm especially talking about the 2nd half of February and March. After Valentines Day, it becomes really hard for snow to stick during the daytime, unless the rates are very high.

[burgertime]

00z GFS was full of potential in the LR. I'm really liking the idea of a storm around 2/4 - 2/11

[SN_Lover]

so what's everyones thoughts on the low closing off? i heard some models are staying consistent with the idea...

[Shawn]

so what's everyones thoughts on the low closing off? i heard some models are staying consistent with the idea...

 

Need Euro support this far out to really keep looking for it.

 

NAM is hinting at it along with many SREF ensemble members.  I think if the Euro doesn't show it at least close tonight, I will give up on it happening.

 

EDIT: NOGAPS & CMC had a couple members wanting to close off also potentially.

[DixieBlizzard]

My Grandmother was a Creek Indian and though she had some "different" sayings, the sky healing wasn't among them. You are a strange dude Wilkes but you already knew that.

 

Widre, I have to say, funniest post by you, ever!  I would honestly pay to see you excited about a potential storm but as long as I have seen you post, I can't count those times on one hand. If Widre ever gets excited about a potential storm, you better buy some bread and milk!

 

The only thing that gives me pause about energy being held back is the fact that the EURO's bias is to hold energy back and aside from that beautiful run two days ago, it consistently brings the energy out. The NAM is worthless at 84 no matter what it shows and the GFS has simply been all over the board. I hope the EURO shows something different tonight, even if it's a bias. It's fun to speculate.

[jaxjagman]

oz gfs is trying to break it up,It looks like it will cut it off but don't,this is the first time in many runs that the GFS has hinted this,.Also the ULL which the Euro showed nights ago is showing up again in Tn.This is what the Euro showed nights ago but it was feeding into the cutoff for a nice storm

[ECUPiratewx]

The "sky" doesn't give a f*** how much rain has fallen. If the the energy is there 24hrs after it rained 700 inches you can still get a raging snowstorm. The atmosphere has no memory, at least not in the terms we're speaking of. Although that very rarely happens, it is possible. So your point about it being climotologically rare is correct. But the basis behind it is slightly flawed

 

He's doing the same thing that people who say "if you hear thunder in the winter it will snow within a week" do.

 

Is there a slight correlation? Perhaps.  Just like when one experiences a thunderstorm in the winter, it can sometimes be right before a dramatic pattern change.  Doesn't mean that every time there is a lightning strike in the southeast that the same location will experience winter weather of some type within a week.  We've had plenty of thunderstorms the past two years that weren't followed by snow.

 

Just like we can have snow after a big rain storm.  If someone could show data proving otherwise, they would have already.

 

I know I'm not being the most scientific in my wording, btw.  Meteorology is no more than a "heavy hobby" for me so I apologize.  Still, between a couple of classes as electives and what I've read from meteorologists here, that is the case.

 

 

Now...all that being said, unless something dramatically changes in the models I'd have to agree that the next system (not including the smaller event for some on the board Monday) is almost certainly a big rain event.  The models hint at PLENTY of opportunities after though.

[SN_Lover]

Need Euro support this far out to really keep looking for it.

 

NAM is hinting at it along with many SREF ensemble members.  I think if the Euro doesn't show it at least close tonight, I will give up on it happening.

 

EDIT: NOGAPS & CMC had a couple members wanting to close off also potentially.

so it still has a chance? the 0z gfs lastnight had some energy almost cut off from it from lastnight's run, i may be wrong though. cant follow models as much now because of class

[Shawn]

so it still has a chance? the 0z gfs lastnight had some energy almost cut off from it from lastnight's run, i may be wrong though. cant follow models as much now because of class

 

There's always chance.  Models have been wrong within hours of an event many times (IE Carolina Crusher), but I'd have much more enthusiasm if the Euro was at least showing something really close.

[superjames1992]

That Sunday/Monday system looks interesting.  I will be interested in seeing what the Doc has to say about it.  There's some potential there for something in the SE, IMO, though it's unlikely to be the "Big Dog" we all want.

 

I think the GGEM and UK Met showed it, as well.

[superjames1992]

There's always chance.  Models have been wrong within hours of an event many times (IE Carolina Crusher), but I'd have much more enthusiasm if the Euro was at least showing something really close.

 

Speaking of the Carolina Crusher, now that we are 13 years down the road, is a model bust of this magnitude still possible?  A lot was learned from 1/25/00; that is for sure.

 

I would assume that you could file this under the "it could happen again" bin, but modeling has certainly improved since then.

 

[Shawn]

Speaking of the Carolina Crusher, now that we are 13 years down the road, is a model bust of this magnitude still possible?  A lot was learned from 1/25/00; that is for sure.

 

I would assume that you could file this under the "it could happen again" bin, but modeling has certainly improved since then.

 

Sure the models are better.  They all have their biases though.  The Euro that stopped showing the cutoff with it's known bias of hanging back energy in the Southwest is troubling though.  You'd think it'd be the model with it while others didn't if it was a medicore chance.

[Bevo]

Please understand that I do not mean any offense to you personally, but the sun angle talking point is bulls*** and should be scrubbed from the record.  It gets trumped out every year along with soil temps and really has no bearing on forecasting, especially in Jan/Feb.  Yes your snow could melt a bit quicker but who cares in the context of storm prediciton in the south.  If we get a huge farking Miller A in early April nobody is going to care that it won't hang around longer than a day and a half.  Let's get the snow falling hard first and then concern ourselves with melting.  It's just silliness in my opinion. 

 

Yes and yes.  The "sun angle"...er, angle...is bollocks this time of year.  It has no weight prior to mid-March. 

[SN_Lover]

euro looks close to a cut-off

[rduwx]

0z euro does not hold the energy back therefore not cuttoff.  Gfs and euro are both locked in on this solution so unfortunately I think this potential is toast.

[SN_Lover]

0z euro does not hold the energy back therefore not cuttoff.  Gfs and euro are both locked in on this solution so unfortunately I think this potential is toast.

it looks a tad better this time though. but overall i agree with you. seems like there have been alot of model showdowns this winter. 

[rduwx]

I'm not much of a severe weather fan at the end of January but there is a good chance of that on Wednesday.

[Stovepipe]

A few things:

1.) It is irrelevant as far as nighttime snowfall goes, but it does play a role during the day (granted, we've scarcely had a daytime storm (except this last one and the one in 2010) in a decade).

2.) I enjoy having the snow sticking around.  I can't really say why, but I'd much rather the snow stick around for a week rather than two days.  Perhaps it is a carry-over from back in high school and I wanted school to be canceled.

 

3.) Soil temperatures can be significant whenever the precip is falling at lighter rates.  They are even more important whenever BL temperatures are above freezing.  It is even more important to road temperatures and played a large role as far as why the roads around here were not bad at all a week ago when we got 3.5" of snow.

 

A storm I'd like to cite is the March 2, 2010 storm.  It snowed all day here from noon until midnight and we only ended up with a bit of 2" of snow.  Why?  Rates were light.  The sun angle was high and most of our heavier rates came during the early afternoon when the sun angle played a role.  Soil temperatures were very warm.  And the surface temperature was generally 33-35 during the storm.  Areas to our southeast got 4-8", largely due to higher rates and the fact that most of their snow fell during the evening/overnight hours, when the sun angle became largely irrelevant.

 

This link includes some discussion about the soil temperatures: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100302/

 

 

This led to a varied disparity of snowfall accumulations depending on who got heavier rates and when:

 

 

Now, for an example of when snowfall rates can and will largely render these subjects irrelevant, see March 1st-2nd, 2009.  We got 6" out of that one, but it is important to note that that snowfall came at night with temperatures in the 29-31 degree range here.  Rates were heavy, of course, as well, though that snow did disappear rather quickly, despite the fact that the high temperature the next day was only in the upper 20s here.

 

However, even with that storm, the sun angle and warmer temperatures down further southwest in GA/AL prevented significant snow accumulations in a lot of those areas.

 

But, yes, the bottom line is if we have heavy rates and blow freezing temperatures, soil temperatures aren't going to stop the snowfall from accumulating.  If we can get a megastorm, it's not going to matter much.  It can, however, affect marginal events with lighter snow rates and above freezing temperatures.

 

The main point being that, all else being equal, I'd rather us get our prescribed storm (if there is one) now rather than later.

 

Fair enough, but it's like wishing you'll win the lottery while stressing about paying taxes on the winnings.  Sun angle is the got-dang least of our worries at this point.

[superjames1992]

Fair enough, but it's like wishing you'll win the lottery while stressing about paying taxes on the winnings.  Sun angle is the got-dang least of our worries at this point.

 

I will definitely agree with you there!

[HKY_WX]

Speaking of the Carolina Crusher, now that we are 13 years down the road, is a model bust of this magnitude still possible?  A lot was learned from 1/25/00; that is for sure.

 

I would assume that you could file this under the "it could happen again" bin, but modeling has certainly improved since then.

 

The christmas storm was a smallish example of a modern day bust. It wasn't really modeled correctly until about 12 hours away. Christmas eve morning there was no storm. Any time you have a northern stream vort chasing a southern stream vort, there is high volatility. But these are normally the only scenarios that produce a big dog and get totals up over 10 inches. I think we are heading into a good period the last week of Jan into the first couple weeks of Feb where this setup could happen again. We had potential back in late December but the timing was off.

[Shawn]

The christmas storm was a smallish example of a modern day bust. It wasn't really modeled correctly until about 12 hours away. Christmas eve morning there was no storm. Any time you have a northern stream vort chasing a southern stream vort, there is high volatility. But these are normally the only scenarios that produce a big dog and get totals up over 10 inches. I think we are heading into a good period the last week of Jan into the first couple weeks of Feb where this setup could happen again. We had potential back in late December but the timing was off.

 

I thought about using that as an example, but never educated myself on why it pretty much died out?  Was the energy just left too far behind and the warm front couldn't reach areas?

[jburns]

 

A storm I'd like to cite is the March 2, 2010 storm.  It snowed all day here from noon until midnight and we only ended up with a bit of 2" of snow.  Why?  Rates were light.  The sun angle was high and most of our heavier rates came during the early afternoon when the sun angle played a role.  Soil temperatures were very warm.  And the surface temperature was generally 33-35 during the storm.  Areas to our southeast got 4-8", largely due to higher rates and the fact that most of their snow fell during the evening/overnight hours, when the sun angle became largely irrelevant.

 

Snow rate trumps everything else. I got slammed with over 30 inches of snow in SW VA on April 27. It started snowing at 8AM and ended around 9PM that night. It had rained heavily the night before prior to changing over. Warm wet ground, temps barely at freezing and above for much of the event and a high sun angle made no difference. When we called the Roanoke NWS office at 9:30 AM to help decide if we should close school they said it couldn't be snowing because it was too warm. We had three inches on the ground already. They then said it must be a small pocket of cold air aloft and it would change back to rain soon. There was a brief period of sunshine just after noon and the melting snow sounded like a mountain stream running down the gutters. The thunder and lightning started around 1PM and lasted for several hours. We were accumulating snow at a 4" per hour rate right in the heart of the late April afternoon. A high sun angle will make the snow disappear quickly after a spring snowfall but during the event it is much less significant.

[John1122]

Tennessee, SW VA, SE KY, and Extreme Northern NC have a shot at some light snows towards Thursday-Friday time frame with the LP that moves from NW Miss to the NC. 0z painted 1-2 inches across most of that area. It may even be a bit more  due to very low 850 temps of around -6 to -10 over the areas it shows snow falling. That should make for some high ratio snow fall if this comes to pass.

 

[Shawn]

Tennessee, SW VA, SE KY, and Extreme Northern NC have a shot at some light snows towards Thursday-Friday time frame with the LP that moves from NW Miss to the NC. 0z painted 1-2 inches across most of that area. It may even be a bit more  due to very low 850 temps of around -6 to -10 over the areas it shows snow falling. That should make for some high ratio snow fall if this comes to pass.

 

Here's hoping you guys get a little more moisture involved with that.  Noticed it's been showing up on a couple models off and on for multiple days now.

[superjames1992]

6z NAM looks MIGHTY interesting at hr 84.  Looks like accumulating snow on the backside of a low pressure going through central AL/MS.  Yeah, I know it's hr 84 but...

 

Time for bed. 

[Shawn]

6z NAM looks MIGHTY interesting at hr 84.  Looks like accumulating snow on the backside of a low pressure going through central AL/MS.  Yeah, I know it's hr 84 but...

 

Time for bed. 

 

Hour 78-84 on the NAM almost looks like a glitch in my honest opinion.  Sure by that model, they may get back-end snow, but lordy would they want it after the weather beforehand?  If the SPC is right with their day 3 and already talking about a Moderate risk, this could potentially be horrible.

 

I know its twisterdata and 24 hr intervals but:

 

[burgertime]

The snow totals on SV are only about a 1/2 inch in far western TN.  The problem with the NAM is there is no real phase with the northern energy so thus it can't pull too much cold air down. Temps at the SFC are not good per the NAM @84 for those areas Twister Data is showing with huge snow totals. It does look like a potent S/W though so maybe it can find a way to cutoff and become a potent ULL? Either way I'm out of town so I'm not personally excited. 

[Tacoma]

The christmas storm was a smallish example of a modern day bust. It wasn't really modeled correctly until about 12 hours away. Christmas eve morning there was no storm. Any time you have a northern stream vort chasing a southern stream vort, there is high volatility. But these are normally the only scenarios that produce a big dog and get totals up over 10 inches. I think we are heading into a good period the last week of Jan into the first couple weeks of Feb where this setup could happen again. We had potential back in late December but the timing was off.

I wish this would happen again.  I know we have the whole month of Feb. but the longer we're going and nothing is really on the horizon we're going to run out of time.  I hope this next storm takes a turn in our favor and will hold back, cut off.  That would give us a chance of something big and would make a lot of folks feel better about the winter.

[DaculaWeather]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1221 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 12Z WED JAN 30 2013 - 12Z SUN FEB 03 2013

THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE AT THE MEDIUM

RANGE TO RATE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS HIGH THIS PERIOD. THE

12Z/26 ECMWF WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BOTH THE 12Z/26 ECENS AND GEFS

MEANS TO USE ITS DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM COAST TO COAST. THE

WAVE ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL STATES DAY 3

HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLAYED DOWN BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRE, WITH THE GEM

GLOBAL AND UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED. THE 00Z/27 GFS IS VERY

SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT--I.E. A MINIMAL WAVE--ANOTHER

FEATHER IN THE CAP OF THE ECMWF. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE PERIOD IS

A THERMAL ROLLER COASTER, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER

THE EAST DAY 3, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAYS 4-6, THEN A PRONOUNCED CHINOOK

OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 7.

CISCO

[Tacoma]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1221 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013VALID 12Z WED JAN 30 2013 - 12Z SUN FEB 03 2013THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE AT THE MEDIUMRANGE TO RATE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS HIGH THIS PERIOD. THE12Z/26 ECMWF WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BOTH THE 12Z/26 ECENS AND GEFSMEANS TO USE ITS DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM COAST TO COAST. THEWAVE ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL STATES DAY 3HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLAYED DOWN BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRE, WITH THE GEMGLOBAL AND UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED. THE 00Z/27 GFS IS VERYSIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT--I.E. A MINIMAL WAVE--ANOTHERFEATHER IN THE CAP OF THE ECMWF. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE PERIOD ISA THERMAL ROLLER COASTER, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERTHE EAST DAY 3, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THECENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAYS 4-6, THEN A PRONOUNCED CHINOOKOVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 7.CISCO

can we not get the arctic outbreak before the storm,---------geeez