January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[NGaWxNerd]

For this system, what you said is pretty much correct.

Well finally I have learned something valuable and scientific from lurking.

Apparently it's all about position and energy.

[WidreMann]

Well finally I have learned something valuable and scientific from lurking.

Apparently it's all about position and energy.

I still haven't learned that and that's why I'm single.

[WilkesboroDude]

The good news is that we have a couple other systems to watch in the next 8-12 days.  Hopefully, we can strike gold at least once.

 

It would be nice to get something during the first half of February before climo and the higher sun angle begin to work against us.

 

We are going to rain our selves out...over work the atmosphere first...then i.e sky healing...doubtful anything wintry that follows would be anything more than a nuisance...which would continue the theme of...the haves..and the have not's. 

 

I can't say that for all of Feb. who knows. 

[packbacker]

As has been discussed by several folks....with most, if not all, models have the MJO getting to phase 1 in early Feb this will be our best chance for something a little better/bigger...For those who don't know here are the precip/temp anomalies/composites for phase 1/2.

 

 

[WidreMann]

We are going to rain our selves out...over work the atmosphere first...then i.e sky healing...doubtful anything wintry that follows would be anything more than a nuisance...which would continue the theme of...the haves..and the have not's. 

 

I can't say that for all of Feb. who knows. 

What on earth are you talking about?

[packbacker]

That would be the smart choice for sure.  No model is really showing anything wintry for the system next week, at this time.  I'll give it till 12Z or so tomorrow and then throw in the towel too.  Anyway, like Franklin and others have said, the LR looks pretty good.

 

I agree with you, the GFS looks like it tries a little harder every run to leave more energy behind, not likely it will leave a cut off behind, but not 0% chance either....

[WilkesboroDude]

What on earth are you talking about?

 

Can't expect a widespread sig. winter event in said time frame right after 2+ inches of rain. Does not happen climatology wise for the tundra. If a massive rain event occurs next week, would not expect winter weather for another 1 to 2 weeks which would have us flirting with middle Feb. still looking. 

[iceman]

What on earth are you talking about?

 

The guy is ridiculous.

[iceman]

Can't expect a widespread sig. winter event in said time frame right after 2+ inches of rain. Does not happen climatology wise for the tundra. If a massive rain event occurs next week, would not expect winter weather for another 1 to 2 weeks which would have us flirting with middle Feb. still looking. 

 

 

WTF?

[NGaWxNerd]

What on earth are you talking about?

At least we knew our conversation was going to go downhill and in a gutter somewhere. Geez Wilkes what the hay?

[NGaWxNerd]

Okay Wilkes, I'm gonna give you this... you're trying to be poetic in your recap of the overall general pattern. Got it.

[HKY18]

We are going to rain our selves out...over work the atmosphere first...then i.e sky healing...doubtful anything wintry that follows would be anything more than a nuisance...which would continue the theme of...the haves..and the have not's. 

 

I can't say that for all of Feb. who knows. 

The "sky" doesn't give a f*** how much rain has fallen. If the the energy is there 24hrs after it rained 700 inches you can still get a raging snowstorm. The atmosphere has no memory, at least not in the terms we're speaking of. Although that very rarely happens, it is possible. So your point about it being climotologically rare is correct. But the basis behind it is slightly flawed

[rosie]

One of the coldest, snowiest storms I ever witnessed was in the very early 80's (Toccoa), warm with thunder/heavy rain followed by bone chilling cold, followed by plenty of snow. Frozen pipes cold!

[HKY_WX]

Widre is back with a vengeance!

[Stovepipe]

I still haven't learned that and that's why I'm single.

 

Just when I was about to write you off as being completely useless, you go and post something like this....

 

AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!

 

[Stovepipe]

The good news is that we have a couple other systems to watch in the next 8-12 days.  Hopefully, we can strike gold at least once.

 

It would be nice to get something during the first half of February before climo and the higher sun angle begin to work against us.

 

Please understand that I do not mean any offense to you personally, but the sun angle talking point is bulls*** and should be scrubbed from the record.  It gets trumped out every year along with soil temps and really has no bearing on forecasting, especially in Jan/Feb.  Yes your snow could melt a bit quicker but who cares in the context of storm prediciton in the south.  If we get a huge farking Miller A in early April nobody is going to care that it won't hang around longer than a day and a half.  Let's get the snow falling hard first and then concern ourselves with melting.  It's just silliness in my opinion. 

[franklin NCwx]

Many of the 21z sref members cutoff the energy and leave it in the southwest.

[Tacoma]

sure was hoping next weeks storm could be heavy snow instead of heavy rain.  can we not get a cold shot to come in just ahead of the storm next weekend?

[POWERSTROKE]

Can't expect a widespread sig. winter event in said time frame right after 2+ inches of rain. Does not happen climatology wise for the tundra. If a massive rain event occurs next week, would not expect winter weather for another 1 to 2 weeks which would have us flirting with middle Feb. still looking.

We had five inches of rain last week and still had a winter event last friday. Really dude? Get off the healing thing

[QC_Halo]

If the birds say the sky is healing...it's healing.

[superjames1992]

Please understand that I do not mean any offense to you personally, but the sun angle talking point is bulls*** and should be scrubbed from the record.  It gets trumped out every year along with soil temps and really has no bearing on forecasting, especially in Jan/Feb.  Yes your snow could melt a bit quicker but who cares in the context of storm prediciton in the south.  If we get a huge farking Miller A in early April nobody is going to care that it won't hang around longer than a day and a half.  Let's get the snow falling hard first and then concern ourselves with melting.  It's just silliness in my opinion. 

A few things:

1.) It is irrelevant as far as nighttime snowfall goes, but it does play a role during the day (granted, we've scarcely had a daytime storm (except this last one and the one in 2010) in a decade).

2.) I enjoy having the snow sticking around.  I can't really say why, but I'd much rather the snow stick around for a week rather than two days.  Perhaps it is a carry-over from back in high school and I wanted school to be canceled.

 

3.) Soil temperatures can be significant whenever the precip is falling at lighter rates.  They are even more important whenever BL temperatures are above freezing.  It is even more important to road temperatures and played a large role as far as why the roads around here were not bad at all a week ago when we got 3.5" of snow.

 

A storm I'd like to cite is the March 2, 2010 storm.  It snowed all day here from noon until midnight and we only ended up with a bit of 2" of snow.  Why?  Rates were light.  The sun angle was high and most of our heavier rates came during the early afternoon when the sun angle played a role.  Soil temperatures were very warm.  And the surface temperature was generally 33-35 during the storm.  Areas to our southeast got 4-8", largely due to higher rates and the fact that most of their snow fell during the evening/overnight hours, when the sun angle became largely irrelevant.

 

This link includes some discussion about the soil temperatures: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100302/

 

The image below (click on it to enlarge) shows the hourly 4 inch soil temperatures at 6 locations across central North Carolina from midnight on February 28 through midnight on March 6, 2010. 

First note that this winter storm was preceded by a few mild days with temperatures reaching the 40s to lower 50s on 02/28 and in thelower and mid 50s on 03/01. During this warm period the 0.1m (4 inch) soil temperatures reached the lower to mid 40s during the late afternoon hours. The amount of diurnal and spatial variability in the data is also interesting with some location experiencing diurnal spreads of more then 10 degrees. 

Note the limited diurnal recovery on 03/02 given the expansive cloud deck which results in soil temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s just before the precipitation arrives. Once the precipitation begins during the midday and afternoon hours on 03/02, the soil temperatures begin a gradual drop through the evening and overnight hours. 

Past experience has shown that when max soil temperatures during the day preceding a snow fall are in the lower 40s or colder and given modest snow rates with surface temperatures at or near freezing, the snow can be expected to accumulate. While soil temperatures were a little warmer then these guidelines, the heavy snow rates in the Triad during the afternoon and overnight across Randolph, Chatham, and Lee Counties allowed the snow to accumulate fairly quickly.

 

This led to a varied disparity of snowfall accumulations depending on who got heavier rates and when:

 

 

Now, for an example of when snowfall rates can and will largely render these subjects irrelevant, see March 1st-2nd, 2009.  We got 6" out of that one, but it is important to note that that snowfall came at night with temperatures in the 29-31 degree range here.  Rates were heavy, of course, as well, though that snow did disappear rather quickly, despite the fact that the high temperature the next day was only in the upper 20s here.

 

However, even with that storm, the sun angle and warmer temperatures down further southwest in GA/AL prevented significant snow accumulations in a lot of those areas.

 

But, yes, the bottom line is if we have heavy rates and blow freezing temperatures, soil temperatures aren't going to stop the snowfall from accumulating.  If we can get a megastorm, it's not going to matter much.  It can, however, affect marginal events with lighter snow rates and above freezing temperatures.

 

The main point being that, all else being equal, I'd rather us get our prescribed storm (if there is one) now rather than later.

[superjames1992]

0z NAM is still so close to closing that puppy off...

[NC_hailstorm]

Still think we have too much vortex up at the 10 hPa level around Greenland to promote blocking.It's been weakened but it''s still enough to alter things.

 

GFS is hinting at moving it out after day 10 so we'll see.The SSW did it's job but we're just getting unlucky where the fragmented piece landed.

 

Just my opinion.

[WhiteoutWX]

Still think we have too much vortex up at the 10 hPa level around Greenland to promote blocking.It's been weakened but it''s still enough to alter things.

 

GFS is hinting at moving it out after day 10 so we'll see.The SSW did it's job but we're just getting unlucky where the fragmented piece landed.

 

Just my opinion.

Yeah the whole SSW will save us train appears to have run off the tracks for now.

[Cold Rain]

Still think we have too much vortex up at the 10 hPa level around Greenland to promote blocking.It's been weakened but it''s still enough to alter things.

GFS is hinting at moving it out after day 10 so we'll see.The SSW did it's job but we're just getting unlucky where the fragmented piece landed.

Just my opinion.

I can't remember the last time we got "lucky" with a SSW.

[MADDOGG]

We had five inches of rain last week and still had a winter event last friday. Really dude? Get off the healing thing

 

 

We had five inches of rain last week and still had a winter event last friday. Really dude? Get off the healing thing

the whole healing thing really only applies to thunder storms. at least from what ive seen in the world... idk carry own ppl

[NCSNOW]

0z NAM is still so close to closing that puppy off...

Looking at 500 mlbr and its within a hair over Texas. But go and look at hour 84 on the 850slp and you can see evidence of it perhaps trying to close off by the small 850 /0 line .

[tnweathernut]

I can't remember the last time we got "lucky" with a SSW.

Yeah, I am honestly getting a little tired of hearing about SSW's. that and the negative AO's have been such a tremendous help lately...... NOT. Haha

That's the crazy thing here in the south. Positive AO's and NAO's almost always screw you. Here lately even when we get negative AO's and NAO's and SSW's it still screws us bc the Pacific is crap.

Makes you really appreciate just how difficult it is to get snow in the south.

[superjames1992]

Looking at 500 mlbr and its within a hair over Texas. But go and look at hour 84 on the 850slp and you can see it closed off perhaps by the small 850 /0 line .

 

Yeah, it looks promising.

 

Unfortunately, the 0z GFS isn't even close.

[NCSNOW]

Yeah, it looks promising.

 

Unfortunately, the 0z GFS isn't even close.

The ukie at 12 z was a lot closer to what the nam has out compared to the just released gfs. I'll wait till Sunday night Monday before throwing in the towel. The nam is just to close but we need to see one of the foreign models give some credence to it.