Tacoma Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What happened to all our strat warming/-AO/Blocking/MJO Phase 8-1-2/Active STJ stuff? yea we keep saying next week and then next week and then next week, well we are running out of weeks----here comes spring. sure was hoping the next weekend storm would hold, sure would have mended a lot of folks who were hoping for a nice snow storm and the last two events were really nothing in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Oh snap! Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'm not completely giving up on next weekend, Euro and NAM sorta still want to leave something behind??? May be where something develops on the tailend of the front? Which still might be rain here if it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 You have to admire the JMA's consistency... It's probably being consistently wrong, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Monday morning looking interesting...before the warm-up hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 12z euro leaves nothing behind...it was fun while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 See you guys in February for the final couple of weeks of hope . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 12z euro has light snow for the deep south next sunday..... and a gulf low the following Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 12z euro has light snow for the deep south next sunday..... and a gulf low the following Tuesday.18z FXHD has Transformers:Revenge of the Fallen. Fantasy is big this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Cautiously optimistic as we head in to the first week of February... While high latitude blocking does not appear favorable for sustaining the cold at over the eastern US, height rises extending from the inter-mountain west to the northwest territories around day 7 support toughness east of the MS. 12z ECMWF is pretty close to a storm ivo the EC at day 8 (and another at day 10), axis is about 3-400 miles too far East this run, but a phasing scenario is clearly shown around 180hrs, and potent sw pos tilt as it crosses the lower MS river valley @ 192. We are going to have to wait until then, energy in the sw will likely be ejecting in its entirety as a very strong lp forms over the GL and heads up to the southern tip of Greenland mid week. After that, maybe a weak clipper through the OH Valley and MA/NE, then comes our chance of seeing a more meaningful event, or two. 12z H5 @ 168 compared to 0z ens mean @ 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The euro has a couple clipper/moderate event possibilities on this run in the extended. The pattern has that look that something couple pop up in the northern branch as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 18z NAM really close to closing it off. I think there is still just enough hope left to keep a eye on it, but that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 The 18Z NAM is close to cutting off at 60. I also *think* the 12Z JMA is still cutting off, but I can't be sure because the images are acting weird when I try to look at them. I don't think this is a done deal yet. It may be that the energy in question is not getting sampled well enough currently. Or it may be that I'm on crack. Whichever the case, I don't think it's over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 18z NAM really close to closing it off. I think there is still just enough hope left to keep a eye on it, but that is about it. Ha! You beat me to it, Snowyman! And welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Whichever the case, I don't think it's over yet. I disagree. Looks like a heavy rain event w/ some severe weather coming... perhaps focused up the spine or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Nice looking pattern on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Here's the 12z JMA. It cuts it off, as well, though nearly 30 hours later, which is different. Thanks man. That's what I was seeing, but it looked progressive to me, then in the next frame, it was cut off way back there in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 I disagree. Looks like a heavy rain event w/ some severe weather coming... perhaps focused up the spine or west. Well, the bulk of the modeling is certainly on your side.....today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Since it's relatively calm in here, I'm going to ask a bunch of Newbie Dumba** questions.... "Closing off" would make this an ULL a storm of energy all by itself to watch, correct? (Cold Rain is the King) And if it "phases" that means it's getting sucked in by the northern JS and no go at all for the SE?(Cold Rain is the King) Am I anywhere near being close to right about anything I've said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Thanks man. That's what I was seeing, but it looked progressive to me, then in the next frame, it was cut off way back there in the SW. Actually, now that you mention it, how do we get from this at 72 hours to this at 96 hours? Maybe there is something funky going on. EDIT: Ugh, apparently it didn't update past 72 hours and that hour 96 is yesterday's 12z run (looking at the dates). I think we lost the JMA then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Actually, now that you mention it, how do we get from http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_72HR.gif'>this at 72 hours to http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_96HR.gif'>this at 96 hours? Maybe there is something funky going on. The 96 hour is from yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I disagree. Looks like a heavy rain event w/ some severe weather coming... perhaps focused up the spine or west. I think Wilkes is very likely going to be correct and appreciate his forecast for this event. The trend is not good right now for wintry and, therefore, there's no reason for me to think that the Euro is going to go back to those two runs (and especially that one historic run). That one run was a dream and fun to see. Most knew that was very likely a blip. So, until if/when the model consensus reverses and suddenly goes back to that Miller Aish type of scenario, I'm going with Wilkes here and a break from the wintry weather of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I think Wilkes is very likely going to be correct and appreciate his forecast for this event. The trend is not good right now for wintry and, therefore, there's no reason for me to think that the Euro is going to go back to those two runs (and especially that one historic run). That one run was a dream and fun to see. Most knew that was very likely a blip. So, until if/when the model consensus reverses and suddenly goes back to that Miller Aish type of scenario, I'm going with Wilkes here and a break from the wintry weather of late. Unless we see a favorable trend back toward the cut-off idea within the next 24 hours, I am going to write this one off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Unless we see a favorable trend back toward the cut-off idea within the next 24 hours, I am going to write this one off as well. The good news is that we have a couple other systems to watch in the next 8-12 days. Hopefully, we can strike gold at least once. It would be nice to get something during the first half of February before climo and the higher sun angle begin to work against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 I think Wilkes is very likely going to be correct and appreciate his forecast for this event. The trend is not good right now for wintry and, therefore, there's no reason for me to think that the Euro is going to go back to those two runs (and especially that one historic run). That one run was a dream and fun to see. Most knew that was very likely a blip. So, until if/when the model consensus reverses and suddenly goes back to that Miller Aish type of scenario, I'm going with Wilkes here and a break from the wintry weather of late. That would be the smart choice for sure. No model is really showing anything wintry for the system next week, at this time. I'll give it till 12Z or so tomorrow and then throw in the towel too. Anyway, like Franklin and others have said, the LR looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Since it's relatively calm in here, I'm going to ask a bunch of Newbie Dumba** questions.... "Closing off" would make this an ULL a storm of energy all by itself to watch, correct? (Cold Rain is the King) And if it "phases" that means it's getting sucked in by the northern JS and no go at all for the SE?(Cold Rain is the King) Am I anywhere near being close to right about anything I've said.For this system, what you said is pretty much correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 That would be the smart choice for sure. No model is really showing anything wintry for the system next week, at this time. I'll give it till 12Z or so tomorrow and then throw in the towel too. Anyway, like Franklin and others have said, the LR looks pretty good. That would be the smart choice for sure. No model is really showing anything wintry for the system next week, at this time. I'll give it till 12Z or so tomorrow and then throw in the towel too. Anyway, like Franklin and others have said, the LR looks pretty good. It looks like we are going to repeat what we just went through pattern wise starting next Thursday so hopefully we get another bowling ball low out west or a repeat of yesterday. Unfortunately I don't see a way to get a big dog without -NAO. The NAO has essentially been positive since mid-December, and it appears it will stay that way so we will get these storms on Acme rockets just flying by us. The positive PNA with the PV sagging to central/eastern Canada could give us chances for small events. Hopefully someone corrects if I am wrong about not seeing the potential for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 It looks like we are going to repeat what we just went through pattern wise starting next Thursday so hopefully we get another bowling ball low out west or a repeat of yesterday. Unfortunately I don't see a way to get a big dog without -NAO. The NAO has essentially been positive since mid-December, and it appears it will stay that way so we will get these storms on Acme rockets just flying by us. The positive PNA with the PV sagging to central/eastern Canada could give us chances for small events. Hopefully someone corrects if I am wrong about not seeing the potential for a big dog. Yeah, the odds favor smaller or even potentially some moderate events. HKY mentioned it too, and like you said, without a good -NAO west, we'd need a really well-timed phasing scenario to get the big dog, or something like the Euro showed the other day (was that a phase too? I don't remember now). It could happen, but the odds are lower, as you point out. We might get lucky, though. Oh yeah, and GO PACK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 For this system, what you said is pretty much correct. Well, I'm with you CR, I still think I'll give it until tomorrow night late, and maybe even Monday night late. And if I'm right, and there is a late week/weekend threat, I want the thread before Wilks can gleep it, lol. There is something about this period that won't let me go yet. I'm desperate to sic the Moles on a storm Oh, yeah, beware GTech the second time through. I think the light is coming on in the Frosh. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Since it's relatively calm in here, I'm going to ask a bunch of Newbie Dumba** questions.... "Closing off" would make this an ULL a storm of energy all by itself to watch, correct? (Cold Rain is the King) And if it "phases" that means it's getting sucked in by the northern JS and no go at all for the SE?(Cold Rain is the King) Am I anywhere near being close to right about anything I've said. Well, you'd like to see a cut off Ull hanging back in the west and spitting parts out into the southern stream. Then you like to see an impulse riding down the northern stream trough. Then you'd like to see the two phase deep in the south, so as to amp up the energy and give you a snow explosion, over us, where it is most important, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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