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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

I just looked back at some correspondence from the 17th, and I mentioned the period around the 30 to the 2th as a storm I was watching, so I believe the run of the GFS that had the cut off ULL, and split flow was a few days before that.  Crazy range, of course, but I look for patterns that far out, to see if they reappear later on.  And something about the lay of the land was very interesting to me that far back.  So a cut off isn't new to the gfs, nor is a split flow, and one run had a 50/50 low hanging out for a run.  I ain't saying this storm will form, but the signs are propitious.  If...If we can get these elements and some timing.  Ought to see something by Sun 0z, if there is something to see.

  But, for once, I'm more worried about the cold.  The runs back then had better positioned, and stronger highs.  I have to admit I was so intrigued I thought briefly about starting a thread, but I could hear Bob ranting at me, and I resisted the urge, lol.  T

I have this on my blog written on the 19th

Jan 31 - 02 - Reinforcing  good cold shot

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

Did any of the euro ensemble members hint at a cutoff? I can se the mean but no access to seeing each individual one.

Based on the spaghettis, not really. A few members were deeper/ slower with the energy in the SW eventually, but it appears they all come out. 

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

New NAM out to 66h is trying to close off. Let's see what the next few frames show.....

NAM has leaned more in the direction of bringing it out with the main trough....although it does hang a ton of energy back there....

 

6z NAM

post-390-0-64105500-1359211963_thumb.png

 

12z NAM

post-390-0-88099200-1359211972_thumb.png

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Indicies don't look great for the next couple of weeks. The PNA does go positive (plus), but the NAO is solidly positive along with the AO (both not a plus). So no cold air being pushed into NA and nothing to keep what's around bottled up to the east coast. **Now at the end of the two weeks it looks to get a little better. I think we may have one or two more chances once we get into February.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

I found this study the other day that was done by GSP on the 1988 storm, and SE snowstorms in general. Goes to show you that you don't need a big upper low or even big surface low to have big snowstorms.

http://www.daculaweather.com/studies/se_snows.pdf

Steve,

Based on my research of all 3.5"+ Atl S/IP, I've said a number of times that our (N GA and nearby areas) chances are actually better with a weak Miller A since they have been the most frequent producer as wound up and phased lows more often than not will tend toward a too far north track/too much warm advection. The formula for a large majority of big snows in our area is pretty basic: an ENE or E moving Miller A weak low that traverses the northern GOM, never gets strong, and traverses the northern or sometimes even the central FL pen. (example Jan. 2002) and then offshore or very near the SE coast (at which time snow is pretty much over). Sometimes, the low has been a little further north and crossed the FL panhandle to SE GA. The strong, phasing lows like Mar 93 are the exception, not the rule.

If you look at old 500 mb maps, you will also almost always see moist WSW to sometimes SW flow as the system approaches. A good contrast is the low from yesterday. I had said that the accompanying dry WNW to W 500 mb flow would mean no chance for anything big based on history. At worst, it needs to start as W flow that then becomes WSW.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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Yeah, I think we can stick a fork in this one and see what may develop in the long term mid-Feb or so.

I would not cancel this one yet. There could be some energy left behind, or not. But the ridge west trough east returns right after the cutter. No need to wait until mid February.
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GaWx

GaWx

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What happened to all our strat warming/-AO/Blocking/MJO Phase 8-1-2/Active STJ stuff?

1) It is never that black and white with any index, MJO phase, or strat warming. These are tools, not crystal balls.

2) Fwiw, I've said that this strat warming was not very impressive temperaturewise relative to the strongest ones (anomaly of only 18C vs 32C+ at 10 mb). Others have said the actual temp. not best measure of how major. Whatever. Point is that it certainly isn't black and white and will vary by region. Also, lots of frigid cold has hit northern US. Even NC had a very cold 1/25. The pattern has definitely cooled a lot since midmonth.

3) Though minor in most areas, parts of the SE have experienced rather sig. wintry events in last 10 days. So, it isn't as if there hasn't been excitement. Widespread, major SE snowstorms are not common events and can never be anticipated just based on a favorable combo of indices.

4) We have a very long way to go this winter. Mild Dec./Jan analogs actually suggest that the most interesting wintry wx could easily be in March this year. Those same analogs had also suggested a heightened shot at a major ZR about now. Whereas yesterday's ZR wasn't major, there still at least was some ZR. Analogs are very helpful and their hints about potential in March tell me winter has a decent shot at making things interesting all of the way into mid-Mar. So, we have another seven weeks to go before it can be safely declared over this year the way it looks now.

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weatherlover

weatherlover

Posted
Posted

Folks need to calm down...HM said the stj should start be active pretty soon...combine that with the favorable MJO phase we are entering and we are pretty close to our first significant widespread event...I think sometime around the 8th or 10th is a good time frame

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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just a cutter then the trough comes back in the east. The mjo is just now going into phase 8. Pattern looks favorable still on the ensembles.

 

 

1) It is never that black and white with any index, MJO phase, or strat warming. These are tools, not crystal balls.

2) Fwiw, I've said that this strat warming was not very impressive temperaturewise relative to the strongest ones (anomaly of only 18C vs 32C+ at 10 mb). Others have said the actual temp. not best measure of how major. Whatever. Point is that it certainly isn't black and white and will vary by region. Also, lots of frigid cold has hit northern US. Even NC had a very cold 1/25. The pattern has definitely cooled a lot since midmonth.

3) Though minor in most areas, parts of the SE have experienced rather sig. wintry events in last 10 days. So, it isn't as if there hasn't been excitement. Widespread, major SE snowstorms are not common events and can never be anticipated just based on a favorable combo of indices.

4) We have a very long way to go this winter. Mild Dec./Jan analogs actually suggest that the most interesting wintry wx could easily be in March this year. Those same analogs had also suggested a heightened shot at a major ZR about now. Whereas yesterday's ZR wasn't major, there still at least was some ZR. Analogs are very helpful and their hints about potential in March tell me winter has a decent shot at making things interesting all of the way into mid-Mar. So, we have another seven weeks to go before it can be safely declared over this year the way it looks now.

You guys are right, of course.  I'm kinda being a weenie, but if you look at the extended range models, there aren't really any signs of a sustained cold pattern...just transient shots.  No big 1040+ Arctic highs coming down.  Recurring low pressure over the Lakes.  And zero help in the -NAO department, which by the way, has not been one ounce of help all winter.  Having a favorable pattern lock in for more than a day or two seems to be an impossibility.  The models can be wrong in the LR, this we know, but it would be nice to see some consistency with a favorable pattern showing up before we get well into March.

 

On the other side of the coin, though, there really don't look to be any sustained torching.  As long as that stays the case, we'll have chances to shoehorn something in.

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dsaur

dsaur

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Posted

1) It is never that black and white with any index, MJO phase, or strat warming. These are tools, not crystal balls.

2) Fwiw, I've said that this strat warming was not very impressive temperaturewise relative to the strongest ones (anomaly of only 18C vs 32C+ at 10 mb). Others have said the actual temp. not best measure of how major. Whatever. Point is that it certainly isn't black and white and will vary by region. Also, lots of frigid cold has hit northern US. Even NC had a very cold 1/25. The pattern has definitely cooled a lot since midmonth.

3) Though minor in most areas, parts of the SE have experienced rather sig. wintry events in last 10 days. So, it isn't as if there hasn't been excitement. Widespread, major SE snowstorms are not common events and can never be anticipated just based on a favorable combo of indices.

4) We have a very long way to go this winter. Mild Dec./Jan analogs actually suggest that the most interesting wintry wx could easily be in March this year. Those same analogs had also suggested a heightened shot at a major ZR about now. Whereas yesterday's ZR wasn't major, there still at least was some ZR. Analogs are very helpful and their hints about potential in March tell me winter has a decent shot at making things interesting all of the way into mid-Mar. So, we have another seven weeks to go before it can be safely declared over this year the way it looks now.

Well, the fantasy 0 line makes it to Galvaston, and below Macon this run, so things are progressing, though slowly :)  It still won't seem like winter until the Goofy 0 line gets to Cuba, or at least Key West, at least once :)

  I did get some rain last night...a day late, and a dollar short, but it was rain, and it was wet. T

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