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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

It must be said the Doc is the only model hanging back a closed low in Southern CA which then ejects later on to give the SE the potential snow. Ukie, GFS. GFS ENS, GGEM all have a progressive short wave that phases in with the northern branch 3-4 days earlier. Now this is the second run of the Euro which has done this slower thing, lending a bit more confidence, but we area loooong way from getting excited about this- I want to see at least several more runs that have this scenario at the very least.

Last weekend, or early week, the GFS has the uppper low hanging out off the coast for a good while. I think it was only the one time, but I know it got my attention, and I've been interested in this time frame ever siince.   I'm glad to see the Doc picking up on that.  A split flow with the upper low would line up nice, if the high pressure could work some cold magic.  T

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I know it's seven days out still, but I'd feel better about this thing if there was some consistency from model run to model run.

There's definitely some potential, though, and it seems pretty likely that we'll be dealing with a juicy system, in any case. It sucks to see the Euro show a foot of snow on a strip from Arkansas all the way to North Carolina one run and then the next run turn around and be completely different.

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

Here's how I see it, nothing scientific but just some musing on my part.

 

Since returning to a more wintry pattern a week ago, we have had two winter events within 8 days (last Thursday and Today). I believe in the rule of three, thus our 3rd event should be here within 7-9 days, which also puts us within striking range of the weekend rule.

 

So, bank it.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I just looked back at some correspondence from the 17th, and I mentioned the period around the 30 to the 2th as a storm I was watching, so I believe the run of the GFS that had the cut off ULL, and split flow was a few days before that.  Crazy range, of course, but I look for patterns that far out, to see if they reappear later on.  And something about the lay of the land was very interesting to me that far back.  So a cut off isn't new to the gfs, nor is a split flow, and one run had a 50/50 low hanging out for a run.  I ain't saying this storm will form, but the signs are propitious.  If...If we can get these elements and some timing.  Ought to see something by Sun 0z, if there is something to see.

  But, for once, I'm more worried about the cold.  The runs back then had better positioned, and stronger highs.  I have to admit I was so intrigued I thought briefly about starting a thread, but I could hear Bob ranting at me, and I resisted the urge, lol.  T

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

0Z nam cuts off the energy at the base of the trough like last nights euro.

If this is the real-deal "big dog" event that the Euro was showing last night, then the global models might just latch onto a solution early and not stray much from it. If more of the globals show a hit with tonights 0z suite, I would start taking this threat a little more seriously.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

If this is the real-deal "big dog" event that the Euro was showing last night, then the global models might just latch onto a solution early and not stray much from it. If more of the globals show a hit with tonights 0z suite, I would start taking this threat a little more seriously.

It does seem that for truly remarkable storm systems, we often see remarkable consistency with the modeling. I have heard that the Superstorm of 1993 was forecasted extremely well (especially for its time). Also, the massive Mid-Atlantic Snowmageddon storms of 2011 seemed to stay pretty consistent on the modelling.

Is this usually the case with these storms?

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

It does seem that for truly remarkable storm systems, we often see remarkable consistency with the modeling. I have heard that the Superstorm of 1993 was forecasted extremely well (especially for its time). Also, the massive Mid-Atlantic Snowmageddon storms of 2011 seemed to stay pretty consistent on the modelling.

Is this usually the case with these storms?

Well, the storms that don't require perfect timing, or the storms that don't have to have a perfect track or the ones that aren't relying on strong dynamics to bring the snow levels down, have a little more wiggle room and will still be a good hit for us. We have not seen an old fashion southern Cal to Ga coast storm track with cold air in some time. This is the way most of us get our biggest snowstorms and those storms are typically modeled quite well days in advance. If that is the case with this weekend system, you can look for the globals to be somewhat consistant by early next week.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Well, the storms that don't require perfect timing, or the storms that don't have to have a perfect track or the ones that are relying on strong dynamics to bring the snow levels down, have a little more wiggle room and will still be a good hit for us. We have not seen an old fashion southern Cal to Ga coast storm track with cold air in some time. This is the way most of us get our biggest snowstorms and those storms are typically modeled quite well days in advance. If that is the case with this weekend system, you can look for the globals to be somewhat consistant by early next week.

Thanks for the answer. :)

And with that, the 0z GFS is running. Let us see what it brings us.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been very consistent with the full-latitude no split flow/closed low scenario, I put a lot of stock in model consistency, even if the model in question is not the best performing overall. The Euro has been flopping around a lot, this may be a case where the GFS beats it. Also I never trust the NAM beyond 36-48 hours.

 

All that said I am not ruling out the closed low hang-back scenario, but I would not go out on a limb and forecast that given the preponderance of the evidence saying no.

 

EDIT: Also, I am kinda rooting for the GFS, that would be a pretty good January severe event all across the south, maybe even here.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

I could care less about severe this time of year, unless its along the gulf coast and waiting on a miller a to round the bend through South Georgia. The gfs bias of being progressive may be in play as much as the euro bias of holding energy back. The gfs was trying to ram today's event up through the Ohio valley/ky and miller b off the Delmarva last weekend while the euro ensembles on saturday put this pup right through Tennessee and off the Carolina coast. The euro op latched on Sunday night. It took the gfs till Tuesday to catch on.

And yes the 93 superstorm was picked up and maintained by modeling a good 5 days in advance. I was in cullowhee and the weather channel played it up along with local yokels on wlos way in advance. It was a true triple phase and became very easy to see with the naked eye on sat presentation a few days in advance the players the models where keying on. The stj feature if I remember correctly come out of mexico western gulf area. Anyway I can't imagine catching something of that magnitude in today's cyber world and being on this board tracking it. Talk about fun and hysteria.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted 




EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION



NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD



1153 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013



VALID 12Z TUE JAN 29 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 02 2013



RELIED ON THE 00Z/25 ECENS MEAN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE



GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM THE DISPARATE HANDLING OF



THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE



PERIOD. PREFERRED THE 00Z/25 ECENS MEAN OVER THE 12Z/25 ECENS MEAN



FOR TWO REASONS: FIRST, IT IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EJECTION OF



THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH--WHICH FITS THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THESE SYSTEMS.



SECOND, IT DOES NOT AMPLIFIED THE NORTHERN STREAM AS DEEPLY INTO



THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD--WHICH FITS PERSISTENCE FOR



THIS SEASON. SEE NO REASON TO COLLAPSE HEIGHTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH



OR SOUTHEAST WITH THE ONGOING SPECTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE



OVER THOSE REGIONS. THIS SOLUTION PLAYS DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF



THE DEEP LOW SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING OVER THE GREAT



LAKES--VIA PHASING. A WHOLESALE WARMING ACROSS THE NATION EAST OF



THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FORECAST, WITH A RETURN TO



THE STATUS QUO BY DAY 7. THE MODELS HAVE DEMONSTRATED GREAT



DIFFICULTY IN SORTING OUT THE PARTICULARS OF THE RELAXING OF FLOW



REGIMES THIS WINTER, SO TRIED TO HONOR THE TENACITY OF THE COLD,



DRY REGIME OF LATE.



CISCO







			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		griteater
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


griteater
			

			

				Posted 
				
			

		

	

	
	

		




	

		

			

				
    
					
					
					
					
					
				

			

			
		


		

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The gfs bias of being progressive may be in play as much as the euro bias of holding energy back. The gfs was trying to ram today's event up through the Ohio valley/ky and miller b off the Delmarva last weekend while the euro ensembles on saturday put this pup right through Tennessee and off the Carolina coast. The euro op latched on Sunday night. It took the gfs till Tuesday to catch on. 


 


Indeed.  Also, the GFS was late to the party with the amped up upper low across the south from a week ago.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		bhamwx205
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


bhamwx205
			

			

				Posted 
				
			

		

	

	
	

		




	

		

			

				
    
					
					
					
					
					
				

			

			
		


		

			Posted 
			
			
				
				
			
		

	


	

    

	

		
		

			

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 29 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 02 2013
RELIED ON THE 00Z/25 ECENS MEAN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM THE DISPARATE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. PREFERRED THE 00Z/25 ECENS MEAN OVER THE 12Z/25 ECENS MEAN
FOR TWO REASONS: FIRST, IT IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EJECTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH--WHICH FITS THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
SECOND, IT DOES NOT AMPLIFIED THE NORTHERN STREAM AS DEEPLY INTO
THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD--WHICH FITS PERSISTENCE FOR
THIS SEASON. SEE NO REASON TO COLLAPSE HEIGHTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST WITH THE ONGOING SPECTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THOSE REGIONS. THIS SOLUTION PLAYS DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DEEP LOW SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES--VIA PHASING. A WHOLESALE WARMING ACROSS THE NATION EAST OF
THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FORECAST, WITH A RETURN TO
THE STATUS QUO BY DAY 7. THE MODELS HAVE DEMONSTRATED GREAT
DIFFICULTY IN SORTING OUT THE PARTICULARS OF THE RELAXING OF FLOW
REGIMES THIS WINTER, SO TRIED TO HONOR THE TENACITY OF THE COLD,
DRY REGIME OF LATE.
CISCO
 that sounds encouraging

			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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